Our neighbor Japan experienced the bursting of the bubble in the housing market in the 90s and entered a 30-year depression. We are also facing the problem of an aging population and a real estate bubble, and the situation of getting old before getting rich and getting rich before getting rich is even worse. So how did neighboring Japan develop in this macro context?Analyzing the history of public offering in Japan can provide us with a direction for our own development.
1. Review Japan's macro development
Japan's economy can be roughly divided into two steps:
Step 1: After the Plaza Accord in 1985, the yen continued to appreciate, and in the late 80s, Japan maintained a loose policy and promoted financial liberalization and deregulation of the financial sector, resulting in a large bubble in stock prices and land prices.
Step 2: Japan** has been implementing austerity policies since 1989, coupled with sluggish population growth and an aging population, and Japan has entered a lost 30 years. This is manifested in the long-term stagnation of GDP, the continued deflation of the economy, which cannot stimulate inflation, the rise in unemployment, and the continued decline in interest rates.
Second, the overall development pattern of public offering
In terms of scale, the scale of Japan's public offering and economic development fundamentals are basically synchronized, both peaked in 1989, from the 90s to the beginning of this century, and then gradually recovered, and from 2010 onwards it grew rapidly again. In line with the global public offering trend, the proportion of passive** in Japan is also rising rapidly, from nearly 10% to nearly 30% in the past decade.
In terms of categories, Japan's public offerings are dominated by **type**, accounting for 86%, followed by bond**, accounting for nearly 8%. Japan's bond** made great progress when the economic bubble burst, but in the process of economic recovery, the proportion gradually declined, showing an inverted U-shape.
In terms of rates, the management fee of the Japanese active type ** is 112%, and 037%。Fees in Japan include sales commissions, management fees, redemption fees, transaction fees (i.e., fees for buying and selling bonds) and audit fees. The fees for the China Active Category also include sales service fees, management fees, custody fees, transaction fees, and redemption fees, which are roughly the same as those in Japan. However, the average management fee for active equity** in China is 0.0 percent higher than that of its Japanese counterpartAbout 3%, and the passive type ** should also be higher than 0About 2%.
In terms of competition pattern, the scale of Japan's public offering is concentrated in the asset management subsidiaries of Nomura, Daiwa and Nikko, with a total scale of more than 50% of the total market, and the top ten asset management institutions account for more than 80% of the market. In addition to E Fund, the leader in China's public offering scale, there are as many as 15 asset management institutions with a non-stock scale of more than 300 billion yuan, that is, the industry concentration of China's public offering industry is much lower than that of Japan.
3. **Type VS Bond Type**
Type: With the bursting of the stock price bubble, Japan's type has been in trouble since the 90s and only recovered in the 21st century. And the traditional closed *** gradually disappeared, and the open ** with convenient redemption gradually occupied the trend. In addition, ** ETFs are performing well.
Bond**: Japan continued to slump after bursting the bubble, and in order to stimulate the economy, interest rates were continuously lowered, and at this time, bonds formed a big bull market, and bond-type ** also ushered in great development. Whether it is the currency **MMF and MRF, or the medium-term bond** and long-term bond**, there has been great progress. However, with the continuous recovery of the Japanese economy, in the past ten years, Japan's fixed income** has gradually declined.
Fourth, what should we do?
As of the end of October 2023, there are 144 public offerings in China, and the assets under management of public offerings have reached 2738 trillion yuan, this figure is still 27 in December 202225 trillion yuan.
In terms of categories, although this year is a bear market in the market, the public offerings are still expanding, of course, the main force of expansion is currency** and bonds**, and even if it expands, it is also expanding in the form of ETFs. Will our ** product category follow the old path of Japanese development?
In terms of rates, this year, the regulators require the public offering to continuously reduce the ** rate level, reduce the public offering *** transaction commission rate, and launch more floating rate products. Will our ** product rates follow the old path of Japan's development?
After all, regulation has always required to enhance investors' sense of gain, but this road has a long way to go
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