I am a creator of science and technology, and the new energy outlet spawned by capital is "bursting".
Since the beginning of this year, the lithium carbonate has caused the entire upstream to suffer an impact, and behind the impact is the inevitable reaction brought about by the expansion of production capacity.
Of course, as one of the main costs of new energy vehicles, the decline of lithium carbonate will inevitably make the emergence of lithium batteries, which will then be transmitted to the vehicle level of new energy vehicles.
However, judging from the current new energy vehicle **, there are no car companies with significant price reductions, and most of the new energy vehicle products are priced at three or four hundred thousand, which will lead to saturation of the customer group at this price.
For new energy vehicle companies, one of the most important indicators is the penetration rate. When the penetration rate exceeds 30%, competition in the stock market will become a norm.
In this context, the bubble of new energy vehicle companies will be "punctured", and eventually the valuation of new energy vehicle companies will tend to be reasonable, while the valuation of traditional car companies will also rise appropriately.
In the past few years, due to the blessing of the tuyere, which new energy vehicle companies have often been listed to obtain excess valuations, such as Rivian, which is known as the "Tesla killer". Its market capitalization once exceeded $150 billion after its listing, and within days of listing, it surpassed not only Daimler, but also the Volkswagen Group, to become the world's third-largest automaker.
The huge wealth creation effect has made many traditional automobile companies accelerate the pace of new energy transformation. However, with the continuous improvement of penetration rate and the intensification of competition, many car companies are also aware of the problems existing in the new energy vehicle industry.
Therefore, the market's valuation of new energy vehicles has begun to shift from concept to production capacity and sales, and in this context, those new energy vehicle companies that have been speculated by capital have quickly entered the bubble stage.
For example, Rivian, which benchmarks Tesla, has lost nearly 90% of its market value in just half a year. The current market capitalization is only $18.2 billion, but despite this, there is still a suspicion of overvaluation.
And in the past year, the outside world has not compared Rivian and Tesla. When we look back, we sometimes find that companies above the tuyere must be cautious in their investment. For those investors who chase Rivian, the road to return to their capital will be long and indefinite.
For Rivian, the share price is like dominoes that provoke a cascade of reactions.
In early October, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a document showing that Rivian plans to issue $1.5 billion worth of green convertible senior bonds due 2030. The company also said that buyers also have the option to purchase an additional value of 2$2.5 billion in bonds.
The conversion of convertible bonds into ** results in dilution of equity and a decline in earnings per share, which is not good news for Rivian investors, but it is the cheapest way for Rivian to raise capital.
And in March, the company raised $1.3 billion in the same way. In the previous IPO stage, Rivian's $12 billion fundraising created one of the largest IPOs in the history of the U.S. stock market.
In other words, Rivian is very short of money.
Looking at production capacity, as early as the beginning of October, the company released production data for the first three quarters of 2023, with 16,304 vehicles produced in the third quarter and 15,564 vehicles delivered in the same period. Rivian expects a production capacity of 520,000 units.
Kanjian Finance believes that the current new energy vehicle market has entered the red sea stage, and Rivian's production capacity is not as good as the production capacity of domestic second-tier new energy vehicles, but it is still a lot higher in terms of valuation, so it may enter the stage of squeezing bubbles in the future.
According to its financial report, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $9.1 billion as of September 30, down from $10.2 billion at the end of the second quarter. At this rate of cash burning, it remains to be seen whether Rivian will be able to sustain itself. Therefore, we believe that when the wind has passed, only real production capacity can support the company's valuation, otherwise the capital bubble will eventually swallow the company, leaving few opportunities for Rivian.