During the Asian session on December 4, New York** and London** both hit record highs. Zeng Shuangshuang briefly broke through the 2140 yuan mark, and then fell back quickly. The domestic **TD and Shanghai gold** main contracts also followed the international gold price to hit a new high.
Looking back at this round of *** rise, since the beginning of October, it has begun to enter a new round of ** stage, when the international ** ** is still around 1820 US dollars, which means that the gold price in just 2 months, there has been a rise of more than 10%, such a huge increase, mainly affected by two factors, and then interpreted.
The first is the expected shift in the Fed's monetary policy. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve's attitude on interest rate hikes and US CPI data some time ago, the market is retrading and pricing changes in monetary policy expectations and interest rate trends in the coming period. This led to a rapid increase in the US dollar and US Treasury yields**.
Theoretically, in most cases, the relationship between the dollar and ** is inverse. That is, when the dollar **, **will**. Looking back at the decline of the US dollar in this round, non-US currencies generally rose, the US dollar index adjusted from 106 to around 103, and the 10-year US Treasury yield was adjusted from 5% to the current 4around 2%, which quickly changed the expectations and risk appetite of market investors. All kinds of factors have gradually formed a strong support for the world.
On the other hand, changes in the situation in the Middle East are also affecting the mood of market investors at all times. Although there is no sign of large-scale escalation of the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there is no obvious reversal of the situation, which to a certain extent can not completely eliminate the market's risk aversion.
Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 22 years or the changes in the Middle East situation in 23 years, the geopolitical situation has changed more frequently in recent years, and in the current environment of high overseas interest rates, the rapid change of the situation has made market investors who have already tightened a string become more sensitive and cautious. This sentiment has led investors to look at safe-haven assets like **.
Under the influence of these two main aspects, it is not difficult to understand why ** was able to quickly move from around $1820 to a new all-time high in a short period of time.
Although the international gold price quickly rose to a record high in the morning of the 4th, it quickly fell back and adjusted, but many factors still provide support for ***. As mentioned above, the Fed's monetary policy pivot has gradually formed a relatively consistent expectation in the market, and it is currently at the end of the interest rate hike cycle. The pricing point of the market game is the question of when to start the interest rate cut cycle and how much. In this context, the expectation of a relatively weak dollar in the medium and long term will still be the logic that supports the current *** to a certain extent.
Next, pay attention to the results of the Fed's interest rate meeting in December and the direction brought to the market by CPI and other data. After the rapid adjustment of the US dollar some time ago, the market has priced in interest rate expectations relatively sufficiently, and the market game has entered a new "crossroads" in the short term. Therefore, the results and data of the December interest rate meeting will bring a clearer direction to the market.
Any change in the current situation in the Middle East may become the fuse for the bulls to organize the momentum again, which means that the change in the situation in the Middle East will amplify the volatility in the short term.
In the current monetary conditions and macro environment, more and more investors are gradually increasing the proportion of ** in asset allocation, and some time ago, I also wrote "The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, how to use ** to better carry out asset allocation?".", a detailed list of the current main configuration of the ** channel.
It should be noted that the domestic ** price is not only proportional to the international ***, but also the change of the RMB exchange rate will also have a certain impact on the domestic *** to a certain extent. The appreciation of the renminbi is inversely proportional to the domestic gold price as a whole. That is to say, the appreciation of the RMB, under the condition that the international gold price remains unchanged, the domestic gold price will appear, which is what investors need to pay attention to when investing in RMB-denominated **.
After all, the US dollar will theoretically lead to the rise of ***. In other words, the RMB will appreciate relatively, and the appreciation of the RMB will drive the RMB denomination, which requires investors to pay attention to the offset impact of exchange rate changes on the fluctuations.
But in any case, the rapid topping and falling of No. 4 International ** technically means that it will take time to sort out the market in the short term. Market investors still need to find the right time to enter the investment. After all, the commonality of the market is the same, chasing high, the risk is there.
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