"Congratulations to the treasures who have already started, your ** has increased in value again!"On December 4, the sales staff of a number of jewelry brands sent out a message about the gold price ** in the circle of friends.
At a jewelry counter in Chengdu Wangfujing Department Store, the selling price of pure gold jewelry was 630 yuan, and the selling price of investment gold bars was 572 yuan, both of which were 5 yuan grams higher than the previous day.
In early trading on Monday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX)** touched as high as 2152$3 an ounce, an all-time high. In addition to **, other *** have also**: comex** touched a maximum of 26$34 an ounce, the highest since May. NYMEX platinum was at $946 an ounce, up 106%, close to a new high of about a year;NYMEX palladium rose 055% at $1016 an ounce.
Prior to this breakout, ** had been consolidating for three years, and this was the third attempt in three years to hit $2,100 an ounce.
Market analysts believe that the biggest driver behind this round of gold price breakthrough may be the bet on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and other factors that push up include geopolitical factors, global central banks are super strong**, etc. Since October, the international gold price has been mainly dominated by the Fed's monetary policy expectations. On the basis of the Fed's two consecutive pauses in interest rate hikes, the recent US inflation and employment data were lower than expected, further reinforcing the market's expectation that the current round of US dollar interest rate hike cycle has ended, resulting in the dollar index**, gold prices soared.
The mentality of consumers "buying more and more" has also made consumer demand continue to grow. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, gold, silver and jewellery became the fastest growing category in the retail category of goods in the first half of the year.
Wang Baomin, chairman of the National Inspection Group (NGTC), previously said at the parallel forum of the CIIE that data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in January and September 2023, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry of units above designated size reached 247.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122%, much higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods 68% average. Judging from the overall situation in the past few years, the total sales of online jewelry in 2020 and 2022 will be 150 billion yuan, 185 billion yuan, and 235 billion yuan respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth rate.
Correspondingly, driven by the growth of domestic ** retail demand, the performance of A-share ** consumer stocks has increased significantly. Previously, the third quarter performance report of the first class in the sector showed that the industry was profitable, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of Yuyuan shares, Caibai shares and Lao Fengxiang in the first three quarters increased respectively. 87%。
has repeatedly hit new highs, and some netizens can't help but ask: Is there still a chance to "get on the bus"?
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that the current situation is at a historical high, and ordinary investors need to guard against potential volatility risks. He said that judging from the historical trend, the breakthrough of the first high is directly related to the unprecedented liquidity shock of major central banks in Europe and the United States.
Although the current market response to geopolitical conflicts has been blunted, and major central banks in Europe and the United States are gradually withdrawing from unconventional easing policies, the current geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, especially the advanced economies maintain tightening, and the trend is not clear. Zhou Maohua emphasized that in recent times, the volatility center has risen significantly. At present, the market is more reliant on data guidance, and it is necessary to guard against the impact of unexpected data fluctuations when there is still uncertainty about the economic and inflation outlook.
For the international **later stage**, Wu Weiguang, an analyst at Hehe**, said that at present, the Fed is still expecting interest rate cuts. Subsequent US economic data will strengthen this expectation if it weakens further, which will further boost gold prices. If there are signs of an uptick in the subsequent US inflation data, the trend may be interrupted briefly. In addition, if the subsequent US economic data is positive and the Fed makes hawkish remarks, the trend may also be interrupted. In addition, the impact of the geopolitical conflict in December cannot be ignored.
Looking forward to 2024, Liu Chen, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that global economic and geopolitical uncertainty still exists, and the United States in the second half of the year may continue to raise market risk aversion, and there is still support at the bottom. However, with the increasing probability of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, the pace of monetary policy adjustment may be moderate, and gold prices will maintain a strong trend on the whole.
It should be mentioned that the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar gradually broke away from 72-7.3, and a number of exchange rate experts predict that if the macro fundamentals of China's economy improve significantly, the RMB will officially enter the appreciation channel. Wu Zhaoyin, director of macro strategy of AVIC Trust, said that considering that the RMB exchange rate is likely to appreciate, the increase in the RMB price may be less than that of the US dollar in the future
So** jewelry is a good investment choice?
Industry insiders said that because of factors such as processing and brand premium, the cost of jewelry will be much lower than that of sales, and consumers should ask about the cost when purchasingFrom a financial point of view, if you want to invest, don't buy gold jewelry, investment gold bars, bank accumulation, ETF and even stocks will be a better choice. Wang Xiang, manager of Bosera ETF, once pointed out that compared with physical products, the advantages of financial investment products are convenient transactions and lower rates. Especially in transactional instruments, ETFs and connections have a low investment threshold and can be paid attention to.
Text: Wenshen.
Edited by Xiaobai.