In 2023, industrial metals experienced a dismal bear market as a manufacturing recession triggered by high interest rates spread across the globe. Major metals** fell during the year, with the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index up 6% for the year. This is a good thing for the air-conditioning industry, and the copper price has reduced the cost pressure of the air-conditioning industry, which is equivalent to increasing profits for air-conditioning companies in disguise. However, the increase in profit margins in the air conditioning industry will also increase the probability of the war between mainstream brands.
In this year's Double 11, Gree, Midea and Haier, the three leading brands, have tried to fight the first war, although this war is only limited to the so-called "10 billion subsidy" platform, but the impact on traditional channel providers is still relatively large. Fortunately, this is only a short-term, small-scale ** temptation, and the ** war between the air conditioning giants has not been fully ignited.
2024 is coming, and the New Year's air conditioner will go toMany air conditioning dealers are more concerned about this. Today, "home appliance people" will talk about these hot topics with you.
"Home appliance people" believe that there are two main factors that determine the trend of air conditioning. One is the game between market supply and demand;The second is the impact of the increase or decrease in the cost of air conditioning.
The supply of air conditioning market is seriously oversupplied, which is a generally accepted view in the current industry. The air conditioning market has changed from increment to stock, although the upgrading market is huge, but it is difficult to fully start in a short period of time. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether the real estate that has a greater impact on the air conditioning market can bottom out. In the face of these unfavorable factors, the air conditioning brand not only did not shrink, but added many new brands, and at the same time, the new and old brands continued to expand production significantly. "Home appliance people" judge that the output of air conditioners in 2024 will not be lower than that in 2023, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent.
Let's look at the cost factor of air conditioning. In 2023, under the influence of multiple factors such as the global economic downturn, industrial metals and shipping logistics** will decline, which is good for air conditioning companies. However, this favorable situation will change, and Goldman Sachs expects strong demand from China to lead to a surge in metal demand over the next 12 months, while loose monetary policy overseas and recession fears will also drive spot ***
Goldman Sachs noted that copper prices have been moving in a narrow range in the mid-to-lower $8,000 range, just above the top of the cost curve, Goldman Sachs noted. Heading into the first half of 2024, strong demand growth in China will still strongly offset the downturn in other regions, limiting risks to the left.
Copper demand is driven by the rapid growth of China's metal-intensive green economy (renewables, electric vehicles) and related investments in grid upgrades. The increase in real estate completions is also one of the factors supporting copper prices.
Looking ahead to 2024, Goldman Sachs expects that given the visible copper inventory of 260,000 tons, which can only meet global demand for 4 days, copper will turn to a more serious ** tension in the second half of next year, and ** is expected to see a sharp upside. Against this backdrop, LME copper prices are expected to accelerate to the upside, with 3 6 12-month targets of US$8,400, US$8,850 and US$10,000 per tonne.
On the whole, the supply of the air conditioning market in 2024 will seriously exceed demand, and the risk of war will be highlighted, and at the same time, the profit margin of raw materials such as copper will be compressed, which will offset some of the first impulses. It is expected that in 2024, air conditioning** will find a balance in a steady and slightly declining trend.
If the price of copper rises to $10,000 per tonne in 2024, it will not be good news for most air conditioning companies. The profit margin of raw materials is compressed, and the result is that the head brand can use its quantitative advantage to resolve the risk, but it is unbearable for some small and medium-sized enterprises. In case the head brand launches the first war again at this time, it will be the moment of the industry reshuffle.
Are you optimistic about the air conditioning market in 2024?Pay attention to the "home appliance people"** and listen to what the big names in the group say. The freshest information, the lowest ** information!You have a story, I have wine, let's talk about it. The price of air conditioning has increased