Hello everyone, I am a pig friend, today is December 24th, Christmas Eve, let's take a look at the changes in domestic pig prices and grain prices. Recently, pig prices and grain prices have fluctuated sharply, among them, pig prices have "risen and fallen", corn has risen and fallen, and wheat has been strong. What the hell is going on here?Next, I will give you an analysis.
First, let's take a look at the trend of pig prices. Recently, pig prices have soared, hitting a record high. According to the report subscribed by NetEase, on December 24, the price of foreign three-yuan pigs rose to 165 yuan kg, compared with yesterday's **05 yuan, pig prices showed a trend of rising for 9 days. This is the highest level of pig prices since the outbreak of African swine fever in 2019. Compared with the same period last year, the price of pigs has increased by nearly 50%!
What is the reason for such a high pig price?The main aspects are as follows:
One is nervousness. Due to the impact of African swine fever, blue ear disease and other diseases, the domestic pig inventory has dropped sharply, especially the withdrawal of ** pig farms, resulting in a shortage of market supply. In addition, due to the low temperature in winter, the survival rate and slaughter rate of pigs have also been affected, further aggravating the gap.
Second, the demand is strong. Due to the late Spring Festival, the stocking cycle of the downstream market is extended, and the approach of Christmas, New Year's Day and other festivals, the consumption demand for pork has increased, especially in the southern region, the demand for pork cured meat is strong, which has promoted the price of pigs.
The third is policy support. In order to stabilize pig prices and the pork market, the state has introduced a series of policy measures, including increasing subsidies for pig production, supporting large-scale breeding, strengthening epidemic prevention and control, and increasing reserves, which are conducive to boosting the confidence of farmers and promoting the recovery and growth of pigs.
To sum up, the pig price is the joint effect of both ends of supply and demand, and it is expected that before the Spring Festival, the pig price will remain high, and it is even possible to break through the 17 yuan kg mark. However, with the gradual recovery of pig production capacity and the increase in imported pork, pig prices may fall next year.
Next, let's take a look at the trend of corn. Recently, the corn market has seen a phenomenon of ups and downs, among them, Northeast corn **, Shandong corn **. What is the reason for this?The main aspects are as follows:
First, the production area has increased. Due to the difficulty of corn storage in Northeast China, farmers have a strong willingness to realize, coupled with the drop in temperature, the difficulty of corn threshing is reduced, resulting in an increase in the number of corn on the market and a loose market. In addition, due to the uneven quality of corn in Northeast China, the discounted sales of some low-quality corn have also exacerbated the pressure on corn.
Second, the demand in the sales area has decreased. Due to the downturn in domestic breeding, although the pig is still not up to the cost line, the feed consumption level of farmers is low, the output of domestic mainstream feed enterprises has declined, and the pace of corn consumption has slowed down. In particular, there are many substitutions of low-priced rice in the northeast region, and the substitution of imported corn, cereals and barley in the southern sales area is widespread, and the rigid demand for corn is poor.
Third, the transportation is not smooth. Due to the continuous rain and snow weather in North China and the Huanghuai region, the Northeast grain source is not smooth, and the freight and transportation costs have increased, which has affected the circulation of corn. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, there is a shortage of vehicles in some areas, which also limits the efficiency of corn transportation.
To sum up, the first corn is the result of the mismatch between production and marketing, and it is expected that before the end of the year, the corn market will still maintain a weak trend, and the average price of corn in Northeast China may fall to 11 yuan or less than catty. However, with the increase in the operating rate of deep processing enterprises, as well as the increase in stocking demand before the Spring Festival, the corn market may appear as the first opportunity, especially in Shandong, due to the decrease in the arrival of deep processing enterprises, as well as the increase in the hoarding mentality of the first businessman, the corn market is showing a stable trend, and the average price of corn in Shandong may rise to 13 yuan or more.
Finally, let's take a look at the movement of wheat. Recently, the wheat market has shown a strong trend, mainly affected by the following aspects:
One is climate change. Due to global warming, extreme weather such as drought, high temperature, and hail has occurred in some wheat producing areas, which has affected the growth and harvest of wheat. Especially in countries such as the United States, Canada, and Australia, wheat has been hit by severe droughts, which has led to a significant drop in yield and affected quality. On the other hand, climate change may also lead to an increase in wheat pests and diseases, increasing the cost and loss of wheat control.
The second is the demand for festivals. Due to the approach of Western festivals such as Christmas and New Year's Day, as well as the advance of the Spring Festival, the edible demand for wheat has increased, especially in Europe, North America, Southeast Asia and other regions, the consumption of wheat products is strong, which has promoted the growth of wheat In addition, since wheat is one of the main rations in our country, during the Spring Festival, the edible demand for wheat is also larger, especially in the northern region, the demand for pasta is strong, which also supports the ** of wheat.
To sum up, the first wheat is the joint effect of both ends of supply and demand, and it is expected that before the end of the year, the wheat market will still maintain a strong trend, and the average price of wheat may rise to 15 yuan or more. However, with the launch of new wheat and the increase in imported wheat, the wheat market may show a downward trend next year.