Tensions in the Red Sea have intensified
SinceA new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7, 2023Since then, the situation in the Middle East has continued.
In early October, Yemen's Houthis declared their support for Palestine, and on October 31, the Houthis formally declared war on Israel. On 14 November, the Houthis expanded their strikes against Israeli targetsAttacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea began. In response, the Houthis issued a statement saying that their goal is to stop Israel's military operations and show solidarity with the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip. Since then,The situation in the Red Sea began to be tense.
December 9th,The Houthis announced that they would block all ships from sailing to Israel if humanitarian aid could not enter the Gaza Strip. Ships bound for Israel "will all be targeted by the Houthis." The situation in the Red Sea is heating up.
According to The Paper, the Houthis have so far carried out six attacks on ships in the Red Sea. And the Houthis are in itOn December 18, it said it would continue to ban ships of any nationality in the Red Sea from Israeli portsUntil food, medicine and other supplies are allowed to be transported into the Gaza Strip.
Some shipping companies have suspended the Red Sea route or made a detour, and the freight rate has been significantly **
As an important waterway on the world's shipping routes, the Red Sea Passage and the Suez Canal together form the "Eurasian Water Route", which is one of the busiest waterways in the world, according to the latest dataNearly 12% of the worldAt sea**BothHere it isElapse. As the situation in the Red Sea continues to heat up,Many shipping lines have suspended their Red Sea routes.
Shortly before thatMSC, CMA CGM, MaerskandHapag-LloydBoth have suspended the navigation of their container ships in the Red Sea and its contiguous seas. This also means,Four of the world's top five shipping companies have suspended the Red Sea route. And according to The Paper, on December 18, China's COSCO Shipping (COSCO), Orient Overseas (OOCL) and Evergreen Shipping (EMC) have also verbally notified the suspension of cargo on their Red Sea routes.
In addition to the suspension of operations on the Red Sea route,Some of the boats also opted for a detourHowever, it greatly increases the time cost and economic cost of transportation。According to data from the German logistics company Dexun, as of the morning of December 20, 121 container ships have abandoned entering the Red Sea-Suez Canal channel and have chosenCircumambulation of the Cape of Good Hope in Africa,This directly led to an increase in its range of about 6,000 nautical milesThe sailing time may be extended by 1 to 2 weeks, the cost of fuel will also increase to hundreds of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
With the suspension of the Red Sea route of some shipping companies and the detour of some ships,As a result, the freight index rose sharply, the latest data as of December 15,SCFI Freight IndexTotal as of October 13The Shanghai shipping transaction also shows that the latest Shanghai port export to the European basic port market freight rate is 1029 US dollars TEU, compared with the previous periodIn addition, the Far East to the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea route early next year compared to December this yearNearly doubled.
Dry bulk has less impact
Dry bulk carriersAmong the cargo ships that pass through the Suez-Red Sea shipping laneThe proportion is about 26%. Dry bulk carriers are transported on this routeThe main types of goods are grain, coal and iron ore. Although dry bulk accounts for a large proportion of the Red Sea route, it is for this type of freightNot too much of an impactYou can see the Baltic Dry Freight IndexBDI is a trend that rises and falls. In this regard, Mysteel said that because dry bulk cargo is generally not a fixed route, shipowners can adjust the plan according to the type of cargo and demand of customers, and the situation in the Red Sea will not have an immediate impact on the dry bulk market.
The short-term impact is large, but the space is limited
According to EIA data, the Suez Canal-Red Sea shipping channel will carry about 8.8 million barrels of oil per day in the first half of 202310% of global oil**. For nowAbout 30% of Europe's refined oil products are imported from Asia, and about 90% of this transportation passes through the Suez Canal. Due to geopolitical tensions, the spot price of WTI ** increased by about 8 from December 13 to December 212% to 74$22 barrel, the spot price of Brent** rose by about 8 in the same period8% to 79$66 barrel. Both have large short-term gains.
In this regard, Everbright said that on the whole, the market has not yet gotten rid of the divergence of OPEC+ production cuts and weak demand in the fourth quarter, and the market may be temporarily in a "vacuum" before the Christmas and New Year's Day "double festival" holidays, waiting for further guidance from the news sideOverall, there may be a slight ** due to the recent geopolitical situation, but limited by the fundamentals** space is limited.
Overall, the impact of the Red Sea warming has been "spilled over", although some of the impact on commodities is small, or some of it is mainly short-term, but given the importance of the route, if the situation in the Red Sea continues to deteriorate, these consequences will continue to be magnified, and even trigger global inflation, hindering the global economic recovery process.
(This article was first published in Ti **app, written by Gu Shuo.), editLiu Yangxue
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