[Introduction].2023 is coming to an end, New Year's Day is coming, in the domestic pig and grain market, pig prices have stopped falling, the phased support has become stronger, the sentiment of the breeding end has improved, and the pig price has shown a "warped" performance. However, in the grain market, the performance of corn and wheat is average, the corn market has weakened again, and the pressure of phased production and marketing mismatch still exists, while in the wheat market, wheat has been adjusted in a narrow range, and the performance of enterprises is average!So, what's happening in the market?On December 27, after today's price adjustment, corn, wheat and hogs have been updated, as follows:
First, the price of pigs stopped falling**, most of them are strong!
In the pig market, on December 27, the pig price bucked the trend**, and the price of foreign ternary pigs rose to 1429 yuan kg, compared with yesterday's **008 yuan, the domestic market showed a strong trend in most of them, among them, in Heilongjiang **136 yuan, Liaoning**139 yuan, Hebei ** at 145 yuan, Sichuan ** at 144 yuan, Shandong**1515 yuan, Jiangsu**158 yuan, Zhejiang**157 yuan, Henan**148 yuan, Guangdong**149 yuan kg!
On the one hand, pork consumption is acceptable, the southern pickling is good to continue to advance, two lakes, Guangzhou, Fujian and Sichuan and Chongqing, pork pickling is relatively concentrated, the market demand for white strips is strong, the operating rate of slaughterhouses remains at a high level, and the operating rate of sample slaughterhouses is 40Around 5%, the bottom support of pig prices is strong;On the other hand, by the approach of the festival, the breeding end of the loss mentality weakened, the price phenomenon increased, the circulation of pigs decreased, the slaughterhouse pig source procurement pressure increased, in some areas, the secondary fattening has sporadic supplement to the small standard pig fattening phenomenon, which further drove the market bullish sentiment!
Therefore, under the support of multiple positives, the trend of pig prices is strong, however, limited by the year-end slaughter impulse of the large factory at the end of the month, the slaughter of large pigs at the breeding end is relatively positive, the average weight of pig slaughter has risen, and the level of pork is loose and other factorsIn particular, after the New Year's Day holiday, consumption inertia has declined, and there is no shortage of risks for pig prices to weaken again!
Second, wheat ** mixed up!
In the wheat market, ** support has gradually weakened, and the bullish mentality has strengthened!On the one hand, approaching New Year's Day, the downstream stocking cycle of the market is coming, flour sales are expected to gradually recover, the inventory pressure of milling enterprises may improve, the operating rate is expected to be the first, and the wheat consumption level of enterprises is expected to increaseOn the other hand, the domestic wheat is effectively tight, the main body of grain holding is concentrated in the first business, the first business to sell grain on a low basis has weakened, the circulation of wheat is relatively tight, the grain source in front of the enterprise is insufficient, and some enterprises are affected by the inventory level There is a narrow range of price adjustments
However, due to the low corn and soybean meal, the production capacity of feed enterprises has declined, the bran is cautious, the bran is lacking in support, and some milling enterprises are still facing severe loss pressure
Among them, in some enterprises such as Longyao Jinmailang, Liaocheng Developed Flour, Weifang Developed Flour, Suiping Wudeli, etc., the phenomenon of low prices and rising prices increased, and the increase was 05 3 cents, and in Xinxiang Sifeng Flour, Huaxian Lisheng and Hebei Jinshahe, the price of wheat fell by 05 1 cent. At present, in the mainstream winter wheat producing areas, the flour mills in the Shandong market are concentrated in 14~1.About 5 yuan catty. In the Hebei market, wheat is listed **sideways 1435~1.About 49 yuan catty, Henan market wheat listed ** in 1415~1.52 yuan catty!
Personally, I believe that due to the general performance of the phased demand follow-up, the market stock before the New Year's Day is limited, and it is expected that in the short term, wheat ** or will continue to be weak and stable, entering January, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the market stock demand or will increase, ** or have a slightly strong trend!
Third, the pressure of production and marketing mismatch is not reduced, and corn is under pressure!
In the corn market, due to the strong mentality of grassroots farmers this month, the pressure of production and marketing mismatch has increased sharply, and the domestic corn has declined, at present, the average price of corn in the country is 2524 yuan tons, down 95 yuan from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 363%！The trend of corn is weak, previously, by the grassroots farmers to subscribe to the weakening mentality, some enterprises to build a warehouse mentality to become stronger, the corn market has a slight performance, however, from the latest feedback from the market, the pressure of production and marketing mismatch is not reduced, pig prices are still weak!
According to the analysis of the institution, at present, the overall progress of domestic corn grain sales is 36%, an increase of 2% compared with last year, and the surplus grain at the grassroots level is still looseRecently, among the 96 deep-processing enterprises monitored by the domestic sample, the corn inventory level was 43970,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1048%, deep processing inventory is relatively loose, enterprises are mostly rolling replenishment, in the short term, the market lacks the mood of centralized library building!
In terms of feed enterprises, recently, there are 47 feed companies in the domestic sample, and the number of days of corn inventory is 3009 days, down 1445%！However, due to the feed enterprise substitute inventory is more sufficient, the breeding industry is relatively sluggish, feed production capacity is declining, enterprises are mostly rolling replenishment, it is expected that in mid-to-late January, some feed companies or have a short period of stocking performance!
Therefore, at present, on the domestic demand side, feed and deep processing enterprises cautiously stock up on the mentality is stronger, and at the first end, the risk of corn selling pressure has been reduced, on the one hand, the sentiment of growers to sell grain at low prices has weakened, the pressure on tide grain in the early stage has been reduced, and the circulation of corn has gradually decreasedOn the other hand, the grain reserves in the Northeast may increase the storage of corn by 4.5 million tons, which has driven the bullish mentality of growers!Therefore, the purchase and sale of corn showed a situation of double reduction, and some enterprises were affected by the phenomenon of a certain narrow range of price adjustments in grain source stocks
In the Northeast market, the corn spot ** is stable and strong, among them, Inner Mongolia Yipin, Cargill Biochemical, Baicheng Meihua, Kailu Yuwang, corn price increase is 05~1.5 cents, Heijiliao area, mainstream corn spot ** in 109~1.23 yuan catty!
In the North China market, in the near future, farmers still continue to sell grain, some of the Northeast low-price corn sporadic transfer, local merchants and the lack of demand to build a warehouse mentality, factories on demand procurement, price reduction mentality still exists, among them, Shandong, deep processing to the grain source in 673 cars, local deep processing ** most of the downward adjustment, price adjustment range in 03~0.5 cents, corn ** in 1236~1.342 yuan catty!
Grain price Pig price warning!On December 27th, after today's price adjustment, what is the price of corn and wheat pigs?What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!