I think 2900 may have to be broken, because now the stalemate between the long and short sides is more severe, and the institution wants to get more cheap chips, but the policy level has been releasing good news, and it is also increasing its holdings in the direction of multi-party benefits. Since this is the case, everyone simply doesn't sell it and stays in this position.
However, institutions can't get more cheap chips, and the short side has become more vulnerable to suppression, so they can't buy if they want to buy each other, and those who want to sell are not sold for the time being, and the long and short stalemate is here, so the trading volume of the two places today is less than 650 billion. In contrast, compared with the active bull market of more than 1 trillion, the current market seems to be becoming more and more thin, everyone is waiting and seeing, and the long and short sides are deadlocked.
In my opinion, this kind of stalemate is not a good thing, the so-called land quantity depends on the land price, and there must always be a result if the stalemate continues, everyone knows it. That is to say, the market is going to launch a decent wave of *** problem before the advent of **, I am afraid that the long and short will eventually reach an agreement to do long, do not hit the deal, only in this position to play the result, in order to finally let the market work in a certain direction.
So the empty side is waiting for many parties to make a move in this place, and many parties are also waiting for the final lore of the air side.
From the perspective of the entire fundamentals of China's economy in 2024, the country proposed to "promote stability with progress, first establish and then break", but from the perspective of short-term long-short belligerent sentiment, the position of 2900 points seems to be not broken.
Therefore, if there is a risk in the market in the short term, we should not worry too much, what I am most worried about is that this time it breaks 2900 points, and the degree of fighting will be more intense, so some**, especially those that have been relatively large in the early stage**, may take a rapid way to destroy everyone's confidence in holding shares.
I said a few days ago, before the end of the real double dip, you have to be psychologically prepared for the intensity, if you can't bear it, you can clear the position, look at the scene, if you can withstand it, and the amount of funds is relatively large, the main force is definitely not a day or two to build a position, there must be a process, so investors are not in a hurry to build a position on the left or you build a position on the left, a little lighter, wait for the market to really bottom out and stabilize, and then further increase the position.
The main force must have a fierce battle with the bears in this position, and 2900 points will be probed down once or further broken down once, which is all in our expectations, everyone says that the breakdown of 2900 is not the end of the last pain?I don't think it's based on our guesses, it's based on market sentiment. When we say that the market is really bottoming out, it must be when it is extremely pessimistic, that is to say, when the sentiment index is hit to the freezing point, can there really be an inflection point.