On December 28, the penultimate trading day before the New Year's Day, A**field volume**, the Shanghai Composite Index ***138%, the industry rose, of which new energy, consumption and other over-falling weights led the rise. The net inflow of northbound funds was 13.5 billion yuan, a five-month high in a single day.
01 Why do new energy heavyweights take the lead?
The bottom of the new energy ** triggered the general rise of the plate, the main reason is the two-way resonance of the fundamentals and the chip structure
On the one hand, there are positive changes in the industrial side, especially the export side has ushered in a catalyst, benefiting from the opening of the PV market space in other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America and other non-mainstream PV markets may have a higher growth rate
On the other hand, the chip structure may be the more important underlying reason: no industry will be overallocated forever, and the overweight chips are often the bottom of the industry when the overweight chips are cleared.
In addition, the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell below 38%, the renminbi appreciated against the US dollar, and foreign transactions were active.
02 Looking forward to 2024, is it worth being optimistic?
First of all, overseas interest rate cuts are almost a foregone conclusion. Institutions generally expect the Fed to cut interest rates about 2-3 times throughout the year, with a range of about 50bps to 75bps, and global funds are expected to migrate to emerging markets
Second, domestic finances are expected to move forward. The rhythm of the first and second quarters is expected to achieve a more obvious improvement in economic data, bringing a slight recovery in fundamentals, corresponding to the spring ** is worth looking forward to.
In addition, the policy side continues to emphasize supporting the development of strategic emerging industries. The concentration of resources in areas that can form "new quality productivity" is the clearest direction of the major conference at the end of the year. This direction provides continuity at the industry level for the expansion of capital expenditures in the manufacturing sector, especially in the dedicated manufacturing sector associated with strategic emerging industries.
03 At the industry level, what directions should we focus on?
Combined with the supply and demand cycle and business trends, we recommend focusing on the following directions:
Medicine
The policy bottom, the recovery of diagnosis and treatment demand in the post-corruption era, the negotiation of innovative drugs to promote the volume, and the service of drug "device";
Big Tech
Entering the AI era, the inflection point of the recovery cycle, AI innovation + domestic substitution brings growth;
Automotive intelligence
2024 is the first year when intelligence really affects product power, and mobile phone factories will enter the car market and accelerate the increase in the penetration rate of independent brands
Military
The performance in 2023 has not been released, and the performance in 2024 is likely to improve, and the attention of new products is high.
04 Write at the end: Believe in the power of cycles
At a low level, market confidence has warmed significantly. We mentioned earlier:
"In the capital market, we believe in cyclical thinking more than the linear thinking of being bearish and bullish: that is, growth and emotions may be phased, while the cycle is eternal."We believe the market cycles and current valuations remain at absolute lows.
A-shares have been in the market for nearly three years since the beginning of 2021, and the Davis double kill of Hong Kong stocks has fallen for four consecutive years, and it is the only one in the past 15 years.
Outlook for 2024
ETF vane" column continues to be updated, welcome to pay attention!
Data**: Huaxia**, wind, 202312.28。Views are for reference only and are not intended as an investment basis. The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious.