Economic Observer reporter Wan MinOn December 7, 2023, at the "2023 Annual Conference of the China Association of International Finance", Jiang Xiaojuan, President of the China Industrial Economics Association and former Deputy Secretary-General, said, "China's economy will show a positive trend and multiple difficulties in 2024 and the next few years. In an era of rapid change, this is not only a characteristic of China, but also a trend of the global economy. ”
Jiang Xiaojuan believes that China still needs to gain new development momentum through high-level opening-up, and natural resources and domestic and foreign markets are still the key forces to promote future development. For an economy like China, which is relatively scarce in natural resources, the scarcity of resources such as land, fresh water and energy has become increasingly prominent as the total economic volume continues to grow. In the long term, China needs to address not only the resource shortages associated with population growth, but also the need to use global resources, which is an urgent and orderly need.
Jiang Xiaojuan said: "Taking solar energy and electric vehicles as examples, these emerging industries that occupy an important position in the global market, their sales growth ultimately depends on the support of the global market, and relying only on the scale of China's domestic market, or the development of a few industries in China, will not bring meaningful growth to the economy." Therefore, the global market is the key to supporting the large-scale development of these emerging industries. ”
At the same time, Jiang Xiaojuan also talked about the issue of "getting out of the comfort zone". "There is a need to understand the changes in foreign trade and foreign investment under the influence of multiple factors," she said. The increasing competitiveness of China's industry is one of the important factors. Many foreign companies have felt that they cannot compete with local leaders in the Chinese market. In many fields, such as home appliances, communication equipment, construction machinery, LED panels and e-commerce, there are cases of foreign-funded enterprises voluntarily withdrawing because they cannot cope with the strong competitiveness of local enterprises. New entrants now need to consider more factors, and they are no longer opting out easily, but are strategically aligning and deploying globally. Such changes account for at least one-third of the rebalancing of multinational corporations. ”
Jiang Xiaojuan pointed out that traditional labor-intensive industries are also facing competitive pressure in the Chinese market. These industries moved from Japan and South Korea to China in the 80s and 90s of the 20th century, and now with the increase in Chinese per capita income, it is difficult for them to remain competitive. "It's also normal to move production lines to countries a little later than China (in the development stage). In addition, the adjustment of the global strategic layout is also an important factor. Some companies no longer place their only production line in China, but seek to establish production lines in other regions to ensure the stability of the industrial chain. These companies believe that the global international environment is complex and that they need to diversify their production to reduce risks. She said.
Jiang Xiaojuan said: "Since August this year, there have been some changes in the situation. Many companies find that China's production capacity is still the best, both from a quality and cost perspective. Some manufacturers are returning to China from Southeast Asia and putting their production capacity in China to cope with the global industrial deployment. At the same time, many executives of large multinational companies visit China, not to seek confrontation, but to seek cooperation. ”
Jiang Xiaojuan also pointed out that China's economy is recovering from fluctuations and is expected to reach the expected target for the whole year. At the same time, the economy is still in the process of multiple adjustments, and the coexistence of economic stability and improvement with many difficulties will be the norm in the next few years. China's commitment to opening-up is an important force in promoting the development of globalization, and the external environment still coexists with both opportunities and challenges. She said: "We need to base ourselves on the new situation of industrial participation in the global horizontal division of labor, which is a basic point that determines many characteristics of our foreign cooperation, that is, from vertical division of labor to horizontal division of labor." Adhere to the high-level opening up to obtain new momentum to promote high-quality domestic development. ”
It is reported that the theme of the "2023 Annual Conference of the China Society of International Finance" is "World Economy and China 2024: Focusing on the New Momentum of Global Economic Recovery and Inclusive Development", which is hosted by the China Society of International Finance and organized by the Bank of China Research Institute and New York Branch.