2024 will be a year of great historical significance. Trump has prepared his campaign plan and made seven promises to voters. One of the most critical points is that Trump will re-manage the relationship between China and the United States, and may continue to promote the process of decoupling between China and the United States. Trump's re-election will be a historical necessity, because American society has now given birth to a leader like Trump.
Trump's campaign promises cover multiple fronts. First, he pledged to fight illegal immigration, repatriate illegal immigrants, provide more jobs for the American people, and solve the problem of poverty. Trump believes that illegal immigrants have taken jobs from Americans, causing hardship for some Americans. He once made the same point about China's ** imbalance, arguing that China has taken jobs from Americans. Therefore, on the issue of China-US **, Trump is likely to continue to push for the decoupling of China and the United States, prompting China to buy more American goods.
In addition to dealing with immigration issues and ** issues, Trump also said that he would withdraw from NATO, no longer help Ukraine, and planned to withdraw from the IPEF as soon as he took office. This shows that Trump will continue his previous policy and continue to retreat. Trump wants to reduce the burden of international obligations and focus more on domestic affairs. It's understandable that Trump has been working to reindustrialize and put the United States back into the ranks of great nations, but it remains to be seen whether this idea will be viable.
Trump's conservative claims do not exist in isolation, but echo trends on a global scale. More and more countries are becoming politically conservative and xenophobic, and economic issues are a big part of what drives this trend. The economic base determines the superstructure, and the occurrence of social phenomena is inseparable from economic changes. When the economy is booming and employment is stable, people are more open-minded. However, when there are fluctuations and downturns in the economy, society as a whole tends to become conservative and xenophobic. Countries around the world are facing similar economic problems, which explains why many countries have opted for conservative leadership.
The U.S. debt problem is also one of the important reasons why Trump has the support of voters. The United States has long relied on borrowing to survive, and the size of the debt is now as high as 33$5 trillion and growing. The annual interest expenditure has exceeded a trillion dollars, while the fiscal revenue is only about 4 trillion dollars. In order to cope with debt and life pressures, the United States needs to raise taxes and reduce the burden. Therefore, Trump's promises are in the interests of American voters, and this means that the United States will become more conservative.
Trump's policy toward China will also become more antagonistic, as he has been working to level the U.S.-China deficit and reduce the deficit. In 2022, the amount of China and the United States has exceeded $690 billion, and the deficit is close to $400 billion. Trump's re-election will likely push the decoupling process between China and the United States further and force China to buy more American goods.
Overall, Trump's campaign promises, as well as the current state of American society, suggest that 2024 will be a year of great historical significance. Trump's election will continue his previous policies and promote U.S.-China decoupling and conservatism. Economic issues are a big part of what drives global conservatism and xenophobia. Globally, more and more countries are opting for conservative leadership in response to economic problems and social pressures. Against this backdrop, we need to be prepared to respond in accordance with the laws of the economy and the trend of development. In any case, we cannot ignore the investment in the United States and the various means that the United States may adopt. We need to recognize the trend of conservatism and polarization and prepare to deal with it accordingly.
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