**As a safe-haven asset, it is often favored by investors in times of economic uncertainty and currency depreciation. Recently, due to the continued spread of the global new crown epidemic and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, ** has risen all the way, setting a new historical record. This article will analyze the main drivers of interest rates, inflation and the US dollar.
First of all, interest rates are one of the important factors that affect ***. The lower the interest rate, the lower the opportunity cost, i.e., the smaller the loss of holding relative to other income-yielding assets. For now, the Fed has lowered the federal** interest rate to near zero and is committed to maintaining a low interest rate environment for the next few years. In addition, the Fed has purchased trillions of dollars in Treasury and mortgage-backed loans** through a massive quantitative easing program to provide liquidity and stabilize the market. All of these measures have led to a decline in real interest rates (i.e., nominal interest rates minus inflation), which has increased the attractiveness of the rate. According to Bloomberg data, the real yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to -11%, a record low. Some analysts believe that interest rates may have peaked and there is still room for downside going forward, which will continue to support ***
Secondly, inflation is another important factor that affects ***. The higher the inflation and the lower the purchasing power of the currency, the more investors are inclined to buy** to preserve their value. Currently, market expectations for future inflation are rising due to the Federal Reserve's massive increase in the amount of money and the launch of a multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus package. According to Bloomberg data, the US 5-year inflation swap spread (i.e., the market's average inflation rate over the next 5 years**) has risen to 27%, which is above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Some analysts believe that the Fed may tolerate inflation above target and adopt an average inflation targeting system, which is to ease policy when inflation is below target and tighten policy when inflation is above target. This means that the Fed may not exit its accommodative policy prematurely, increasing the risk of inflation. As a result, investors are likely to seek more as a hedging tool.
Finally, the U.S. dollar is another important factor that influences. The weaker the dollar, the cheaper it is, and the more attractive it is for investors in the non-dollar zone. Currently, the dollar index (i.e., the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies) has fallen from 103 points in March 2020 to around 92 points due to a slower-than-expected recovery in the U.S. economy and the gap between the U.S. and other countries in terms of pandemic control and vaccination. Some analysts believe that there is still room for the dollar to go further.