Tuyere financial reporter Shi Bingbing.
On December 13, the People's Bank of China released financial statistics for November. According to the data, new RMB loans were added in November 202309 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion;In November, the scale of new social financing was 245 trillion, an increase of 455.6 billion year-on-year. At the end of November, broad money (M2) increased by 100%, the growth rate was lower than the previous month's 03 percentage points;Narrow money (M1) increased by 13%, the growth rate is 06 percentage points. 
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that the new credit and social finance data were "low and flat" relative to market expectations, and the overall performance of real economy financing was stable, indicating that the domestic economy maintained a steady expansion trend. The weaker than expected new credit in November is related to the obvious pre-emptive pace of credit delivery this year, as well as the fact that banks are actively preparing for a good start and the financing demand of enterprises is weakThe social finance data was flat, mainly due to the increase in bond issuance.
The increase in loans in the first 11 months has exceeded that of last year Data show that in the first 11 months, China's RMB loans increased by 2158 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-year55 trillion yuan. In November, China's RMB loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan. Market institutions' previous expectations for new RMB loans in November were generally between 950 billion yuan and 13 trillion yuan range.
By sector, household loans increased by 292.5 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 59.4 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 233.1 billion yuanLoans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 822.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 170.5 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 446 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 209.2 billion yuanLoans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 20.7 billion yuan.
November is a 'small month' of credit, and new loans are less than expected, with a year-on-year increase, mainly due to the obvious advance of the pace of credit delivery this year, and the total amount of new credit in the first 11 months has exceeded that of last year, coupled with the bank's active preparation for a "good start". From a structural point of view, residents' short-term, medium- and long-term loans increased year-on-year in November, reflecting the recovery of residents' consumption and property market demandIn November, the short-term loans of enterprises increased year-on-year, and the new loans of medium and long-term increased slightly, but from January to November, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased significantly year-on-year. Zhou Maohua said in an interview with Fengkou Finance.
The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2023" previously released by the People's Bank of China mentioned that "efforts should be made to strengthen the balanced allocation of loans, coordinate the credit work at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, moderately smooth credit fluctuations, and enhance the stability and sustainability of total credit growth." The first economic work conference held a few days ago also required that "a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective".
Zhou Maohua further analyzed, "From the trend point of view, the steady recovery of the domestic economy still needs financial and credit policy support, and it is expected that credit is expected to maintain moderate growth, continue to provide strong support for economic recovery, and continue to optimize the credit structure." Weak links and key emerging areas, three major projects, consumer credit, real estate, etc. are expected to become credit growth points this year. ”
The "scissors gap" between the growth rate of M2 and M1 hit a new high in the year In terms of the amount of money, at the end of November, the balance of broad money (M2) was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the growth rate was 03 and 24 percentage points. Narrow money (m1) balance 6759 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, the growth rate was 0.0 lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively6 and 33 percentage points;
The financial reporter noticed that as the growth rate of M1 fell to a significantly low level, the "scissors difference" between the growth rate of M2 and M1 rose to 8 at the end of November7 percentage points, a new high for the year.
At the end of November, the growth rate of M1 fell to a significantly low level, mainly dragged down by the low operation of the real estate market, which also indicates that the current activity of the real economy needs to be further improved. In terms of M2, the year-on-year growth rate at the end of November was 100%, the growth rate fell 0 from the end of last monthThere are two main reasons for 3 percentage points: first, the large-scale redemption of wealth management in November last year significantly pushed up the growth rate of M2, and the increase in the base will inevitably have a pull-down effect on the growth rate of M2 in November this year. Second, the year-on-year increase in loans in the current month affected the derivation of deposits. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told Fengkou Finance.
Since the beginning of this year, the 'scissors gap' between the growth rate of M2 and M1 has continued to rise, mainly due to the decline in residents' demand for housing in the context of the real estate downturn, and the transfer of residents' deposits to real estate demand deposits has been blocked. Wang Qing said that this also means that the transmission of easy money to stable growth is not smooth. At present, there is an urgent need to boost the endogenous growth momentum of the economy by effectively stimulating domestic demand and boosting the activity of the real economy, especially promoting the real estate industry to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible.
The central bank may create new monetary policy tools if necessary The recent economic work conference emphasized that "prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective" and credit delivery "always maintain the soundness of monetary policy".
In this regard, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that under this general tone, the growth of money and credit will not only maintain solid support for the real economy, but also emphasize sustainable and stable delivery, so as to better match macroeconomic development and the needs of business entities. Financial institutions will accurately grasp the law and new characteristics of the supply and demand of money and credit, strengthen the dual adjustment of the total amount and structure of money, better smooth the monthly and quarterly fluctuations, and promote the stable growth of China's economy with the stability of credit growth.
In Zhou Maohua's view, "the overall financial data in November was slightly less than expected, the financing demand of the real economy was weaker, there were more disturbance factors at the end of the year, the capital side converged, and the domestic counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment was repeatedly emphasized, and the market expectation of the central bank to increase policy has risen." It is expected that the total tools and structural tools of RRR and interest rate cuts are all in the central bank's toolbox, and they will move at the right time. ”
Before the end of the year, monetary policy will coordinate with fiscal policy to escort the issuance of additional treasury bonds. To this end, the central bank is likely to take two measures: one is to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 025 percentage points, releasing more than 500 billion long-term funds;The second is to continue to increase the sequel MLF on a large scale in December. The latter is more probable. Wang Qing judged that the first economic work conference just held required "promoting the steady and moderate decline of social comprehensive financing costs", and domestic prices will continue to be at a low level for a period of time in the future, and the MLF interest rate may be lowered once in the first half of 2024.
Wang Qing further pointed out that in terms of structure, the first economic work conference set the monetary policy as "flexible, moderate, precise and effective", which means that in 2024, the new credit scale index will be diluted, and the focus will be on increasing the efficiency of the use of new credit by revitalizing existing loans, etc., and guiding more credit funds to flow more to scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development, small and medium-sized enterprises and the "three major projects" This also means that structural monetary policy tools will be further relied on in 2024, and the possibility that the central bank will create new policy tools cannot be ruled out.