According to the latest Republican primary polls (see chart below), Donald Trump has an average lead of 48 over his rivals6 percentage points, from this point of view, if the "judicial maelstrom" under Trump's feet does not escalate, then it is only a matter of time before he obtains the status of the 2024 Republican ** nominee, and then faces Biden Harris in the ** runoff election, how to choose his running mate will be the problem that Trump will face, and Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations (Nikki Haley), who has performed well recently, will be a suitable deputy ** candidate?
While Haley is on the rise, Haley is struggling to come out on top in any of the top four Republican primaries (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina). The most likely is New Hampshire, where Trump's first two *** losses to Hillary and Biden are second, mainly because of the smallest poll gap between Haley and Trump of the first four states (a difference of 25.).6), and Sununu, the four-term governor of New Hampshire, has endorsed Haley and will push voters who are not part of the Republican primary to stand up for Haley.
Even if Haley ranks first in New Hampshire, then the other three early states, with Desanish and Christie and others splitting the votes, it is difficult to make a big breakthrough, and the probability of Haley winning the 2024 Republican ** nomination is very low from all aspects, so when she drops out, is it suitable to be Trump's running mate?
There is a long gap between Haley and Trump's foreign policy stance, Trump once claimed that he could quickly end the conflict in Eastern Europe after taking office, and believed that various retreats would still be his main theme, while Haley, who advocated "interventionism", was ridiculed by Trump's little fan brother Ramaswamy on the debate stage for not knowing the four provinces of eastern Ukraine but sending troops, it is not an exaggeration to say that Haley and Trump's foreign policies are completely at odds.
And there have been two recent "contradictions" between the two, in 2018, when the then **Trump tried to block the blue wave of the Democratic midterm elections, but as a cabinet member, Haley suddenly resigned as ambassador to the United Nations, which was considered to have weakened the Republican Party and caused Trump's dissatisfaction. The second time, of course, is to stand on the opposite side of Trump and challenge Trump's ** campaign.
However, it is precisely because of the difference in policy positions between Haley and Trump, coupled with the "contradictions" between the two, that Haley may be a suitable person to serve as Trump's partner.
From the perspective of the Democratic Party, since Biden entered the fourth quarter, he has clearly regarded Trump as his imaginary enemy and formulated a corresponding campaign strategy, and even took the unconvincing "Biden economy" as a campaign slogan, aiming directly at Trump, Biden said "If Trump does not run **, then I am not sure that Trump will run, in short, Trump cannot be elected". After a series of actions by the Democratic Party in the past few months, it is surprising that various "left media" have launched polls that are lagging behind in the battleground state when Biden vs. Trump is in the showdown.
In the Bloomberg poll, for example, Biden is behind Trump in the following battleground states: Wisconsin (4+), Pennsylvania (2+), North Carolina (9+), Nevada (3+), Michigan (4+), Georgia (6+), Arizona (4+). If polls are followed, then Biden will lose to Trump in the 2024** election.
Recently, the Democratic Party has created an atmosphere that Biden will lose **, which is a helpless move after promoting various campaign policies and maintaining an ultra-low approval rating, and can only hope for a negative atmosphere to urge Democratic voters to stand up and vote, especially those who are anti-Trump voters.
The Democrats have made a move, so how do you motivate anti-Trump and centrist voters in the Republican Party when Trump is up against Biden?Haley, who has had a "conflict" with Trump, may be a good choice for the two to become running mates. Haley, who is only 51 years old and a female minority, will appeal to centrist voters who are in the middle or leaning toward conservatives. Moreover, Trump has the potential risk of "judicial maelstrom" and age, and voters are not at ease, but if Haley is standing next to him, it can further dispel voters' doubts.
Although Haley is reluctant to serve as a deputy at the moment, and the two have "contradictions" between the two and many different policy positions, it is unlikely that the two will join forces, and if they end up joining forces, it is likely that there will be unexpected results, and there are precedents for this in history.
In 1980, Reagan and Bush Sr. ran for the Republican Party ** nominee, and during the Pennsylvania primary, Bush Sr. did not hesitate to criticize Reagan's policy as a "witchcraft economy".
Whether Trump can break his preferences, throw an olive branch to Haley and replicate the path of Reagan Bush is also a big attraction in the future, provided that Trump first wins the Republican primary.