News of the week:
The short-term value has decreased and is in a good opportunity;
The long-term value has dropped significantly, and it is in the ** pit position, and it can be 3 times the fixed investment;
The stock and bond price trend and market style box are as follows:
For more data, please click: Super easy-to-use stock and bond price-performance tool (updated daily, check at any time).
In the past week, the market has generally fallen, with the growth style performing the worst, the value style having the smallest decline, and the defensive style performing better.
In terms of industry performance, the leaders were new energy, computers, communications and other industries that had risen better.
From the perspective of broad-based indexes, growth styles such as ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, CNI Growth, and Mao Index fell the most, while Hang Seng Technology, micro-cap stocks, and value styles performed relatively well.
The current market is still running at more than 2,900 points, and the speed has slowed down in the past two days, as shown in the figure below
Our view remains the same, the current downside is limited, and the benefits in the next two to three years far outweigh the risksThroughout history, none of them were born in joy, but in a panic。When others panic, we should think more rationally.
In addition, it should be noted that although the current long-term value is in the first pit position, there is still some distance from the historical extreme.
Some people can't persevere, because the risk budget is not enough, the allocation is too aggressive, the decline is too large, and the psychological defense line is broken, so they will feel tormented.
In both rebalancings in May and September this year, we added some defensive and less economically affected **, so the portfolio decline was significantly smaller than the average of **index and biased stocks**.
Compared to the last month**6% decline (2 in the past week.)6%), the combination of different styles is strictly in accordance with the corresponding risk coefficient, and we hope that at the end of the most painful bear market, everyone's holding experience can be relatively reassuring.
*The coping strategy for the pit location is still the same as the old three:
The next policy is to sell, the upper policy is to increase the position, and the middle policy is to hold and lie flat.
Numerical calculations:
The above values are not the best market, mainly based on historical data and occurrence probability, combined with the current data estimation and analysis. Due to the complexity of the market, it is impossible to confirm that it is accurate, and it does not constitute specific investment advice, so please look at it rationally.
Most of the time, the value does not change much, but when there is a good opportunity or too high a position in the market, it can be observed through the data and make a display reminder.
EventuallyI hope to use the discerning eye as an aid, combined with text reminders, to think more contrarian and reduce chasing up and down
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