Although Chinese mainland has repeatedly stated that it will achieve reunification through peaceful means as much as possible, Japan has been emphasizing for many years that "if there is something wrong with Taiwan, there is something wrong with Japan," and that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have begun a historic process of arming. If a military conflict really breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, what will Japan do?Koichiro Saka, a three-star lieutenant general of Japan's Self-Defense Forces, said in an interview with Nikkei Asia that Japan could play a role similar to Poland's in the war in Ukraine.
What is Poland's role in the war in Ukraine?1. Reception of refugees;2. Provision of military assistance;3. Provide financial assistance;Fourth, it has become the main channel for the West to provide military assistance to Ukraine.
According to Koichiro Saka, Japan's role is at most like this. Clause.
1. Japan will be the only gateway to Taiwan to supply all kinds of supplies, not the Philippines.
Second, Japan also needs to prepare for the influx of Taiwanese refugees, noting that previous discussions about Japanese immigration have been limited to accepting a very limited number of foreigners. "We don't have a system that's ready to accept hundreds of thousands of refugees. "The provision of necessary housing, quarantine and screening when dealing with refugees is also not considered.
Third, Japan will also properly defend itself in battle, strengthen its defense at key choke points, and bring great trouble to China. "China has nine exits to the open sea, five of which are located in the Japanese archipelago," he stressed. Japan's strategy was to create problems for the squadron's actions by laying mines, arranging air defense systems, etc. But Ban made it clear that Japan's Self-Defense Forces would not fight on the mainland of the island of Taiwan. "The main area of activity of the Self-Defense Forces will be on the territory of Japan and, perhaps, international waters. ”
In order to ensure Japan's security, he also stressed his support for Japan's change to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles", which will allow the US military to deploy nuclear weapons on the Japanese archipelago.
The question now is: If Japan plays a role similar to "Poland" when a military crisis breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, will China accept it?It should be said that the contradictions will not be very large, but it is also necessary to stop some of their plots.
The fact that Japan's Self-Defense Forces do not directly intervene in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is worthy of recognition. On the one hand, the Japanese do not have a legal basis to send troops to the Taiwan Strait or the island of Taiwan based on the restrictions of the Peace ConstitutionOn the other hand, Japan's Self-Defense Forces do not want to directly set themselves on fire. Finally, the strength of Japan's Self-Defense Forces is not suitable for intervening in a war in the Taiwan Strait.
However, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are ready to disrupt several Chinese outlets to the sea, which of course may interfere with the actions of the squadron, but it will only be brutally retaliated by China. The sabotage of international shipping lanes is itself an act of war, and Japan's strategic shortcomings in the local high-quality author list are also very serious, and China can also sabotage Japan's main shipping routes.
As long as the Japanese Self-Defense Forces cause damage to the Chinese ship, it is almost a declaration of war against China, and we have every right to launch a reciprocal counterattack against Japan. At that time, even if Japan directly enters the war, this is definitely not Poland's position in the Ukrainian battlefield.
Japan's readiness to accept refugees from the island of Taiwan and its provision of material assistance to Taiwan will also pose a considerable challenge to China. For example, will the diehards gather in Japan in large numbers and create problems for post-war social governance?
For another example, if humanitarian supplies and aid channels are provided to the island of Taiwan, will it become a breach for the best equipment to enter the Taiwan military, which will inevitably undermine the PLA's military blockade of Taiwan.
It can be seen that Japan wants to play a role similar to Poland in the Taiwan crisis, which may be a high probability event. Of course, China cannot agree to this, and it must draw a red line for it. If any actions taken by Japan are coordinated with China, then it is possible for the two sides to avoid a direct conflict.
As soon as Japan's Self-Defense Forces begin to interfere with the actions of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) or undermine the effect of the blockade against Taiwan, we must be ruthless when we should be ruthless, and we must not be soft-hearted, otherwise there will be endless troubles in the future.