Yemen's Houthi rebels continue to attack cargo ships, US aircraft carriers are massing in the Gulf of Aden, considering strike options to stop Yemen's Houthi rebels, and the Red Sea is full of war clouds.
So far, though, the United States has not launched a formal aircraft carrier attack. In this regard, the US "War Zone" column published a commentator's article on December 18 to analyze this, and the commentator first admitted that the current situation is "different from the past," and that Iran and pro-Iranian forces are not fully involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and there are still many means to escalate the conflict. The Houthis alone have the ability to dramatically increase attacks on U.S. forces in the region, such as attacking the U.S. military's Lemonnier base in Djibouti with ballistic and cruise missiles. In addition, other militant attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, which would lead to a full-scale U.S. involvement in the Middle East, which is "exactly what Iran wants to see."
The U.S. also lacks the ability to completely stop the Houthis' anti-ship missiles, which are time-sensitive targets that require the U.S. to invest a lot of sensors and missiles to gather intelligence over Yemen's vast waters. And the current strength of the US military is not enough to reach this level. If the U.S. strike doesn't stop the Houthis from launching a strike, then the U.S. will lose credibility and fail to deliver on its promises.
The article argues that Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the only ones involved, with Egypt benefiting more than $10 billion a year from the Red Sea shipping lanes, and so far the Houthi missile attacks on Israel itself have yielded little tangible results. The U.S. needs to rely on an "international coalition" approach to the Houthis, and if stakeholders are not involved in the Red Sea operation, then the U.S. should not "come out." In addition, the U.S. military can deploy more naval and air force equipment to complete escort ships by intercepting Houthi missiles.
U.S. military's Lemonnier base in Djibouti Source: Social**.
The destroyer USS Carney launched a Standard-2 missile to intercept a Houthi drone.
The Houthis alone are capable of significantly increasing attacks on US troops in the region, the article says. The Houthis have a large and varied range of forces that have grown significantly during much of the decade-long conflict with the Saudi-led coalition. Iran and its Allah party in Lebanon have not yet fully intervened in the Israeli-Hamas conflict, but they may do. Attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria are also occurring almost daily.
And one of the most important U.S. military installations sits across the strait, less than 100 miles from Yemen — the Lemonnier base in Djibouti. The base, which occupies the southern half of Djibouti International Airport, is the most important U.S. base in the region, where most of U.S. operations in and around Yemen are launched.
The base now routinely deploys special operations aircraft, sometimes fighter task forces, and other U.S. and contractor aircraft. A nearby drone base is at the heart of U.S. drone operations in Africa, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman. If Houthi ballistic and cruise missiles continue to attack these key facilities with drones, it will be a huge geopolitical and military problem.
Houthi ballistic missiles and drones, photo: Houthis.
Getting the U.S. to strike targets in Yemen sounds easy and operationally easy, but the ensuing escalation could pose more challenging tactical problems. Inflicting losses on the Houthis will not prevent the Houthis from firing anti-ship missiles. Preemptive anti-ship missile and drone attacks will require large-scale, expensive, resource-consuming, open-ended operations. This will include the continuous collection of intelligence over a very wide area, as well as the use of ** and sensors for time-sensitive targets. In addition, the Houthis have suffered losses and will not give up their willingness to launch missiles.
Commentators believe that the United States is "not ready" and "lacks reason." Protecting shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not entirely the responsibility of the US Navy and American taxpayers, whose task is to keep sea lanes open, but regional countries, especially Egypt, have the greatest losses here. Egypt earns nearly $10 billion a year from the operation of the Suez Canal. If the Bab el-Mandeb becomes too dangerous to pass, Egypt should contribute.
Saudi Arabia is another key player in maintaining the Red Sea's navigation. Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis for years, but the conflict has been costly, and Saudi Arabia has been desperate for relief from it. But the authors acknowledge that a resumption of war with Yemen's Houthis could complicate the prospects for Saudi Arabia, which has long wanted to repair relations with Iran.
At the end of the article, the commentator said that the dispatch to protect merchant ships would also protect the shipping routes, and efforts could be made to ensure the safety of shipping without direct exchanges of fire with the Houthis. And the new naval assets (referring to the Eisenhower aircraft carrier) could create a new scene.
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