On the last trading day of 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index is exactly **20At 23 o'clock, the final point fell at 2974At 93 points, the 2023 A** field, which is difficult to say with a three-in-a-row sun, received an official who "nurtures hope". (Data**: Wind, as of 2023.)12.29）
When 2023 is not far away, the difficulty of investment in this year is always haunting me. And when we put ourselves in the shoes of many years, we may be able to look at the gains and losses of investment in 2023 with a calm mind.
Years later, when you look back at the market in 2023, what will you remember?
I probably can't remember how many times the Shanghai Composite Index repeatedly pulled at 3,000 points, and I can't remember the specific changes in the account profit and loss figures;But it may be recalled that the optimistic post-pandemic recovery did not come to an end, and the scars healed more slowly than expectedYou may remember the birth of ChatGPT, and the technological revolution that swept all walks of life driven by AI sprouted from that timeYou may also think of dividends and U.S. stocks ** in the weak market ** to the limelight, and some regret not paying attention to it early?
In the eyes of every investor, there may be their own 2023. Xiaojing tried to pick three interesting keywords:Expectations, AI and dividends.
Expectation is a very mysterious thing
Reality is often more dramatic than drama, and the gap between expectations and reality also shows that expectations are a very mysterious thing.
In 2023, the difference in expectations has caught investors off guard at home and abroad. At the beginning of the year, the liberalization of the epidemic and the promotion of real estate policies and the resumption of production and work of infrastructure projects quickly boosted everyone's confidence in economic recovery. However, the follow-up plot did not follow the "script", the reality was less than expected, and the market shifted from recovery trading to seeking thematic trading and subsequent safe-haven assets and growth tickets. Generally speaking, in the context of the stock capital game, the industry rotation is fast and difficult to sustain, and the test of active equity investment is very severe. Overseas, despite high inflation and liquidity crunch pressures, the fundamentals brought about by the resilience of consumer spending and the increase in ** spending have been significantly stronger than expected, and the explosion of the artificial intelligence industry has also led to a significant strengthening of technology.
Of course, this is not to say that expecting is a bad thing, to some extent, the capital market reflects expectations, and things that everyone believes often happen. It's just that behind the expected changes, we are often prone to extremes, too pessimistic or blindly optimistic. For example, after a long period of adjustment, many friends are discouraged and don't want to touch *** anymore. But yesterday the market was fully **,"Cattle return to speed".The voice unconsciously rushed up from the depths of the body again.
We usually understand the reverse human nature of ** as the reverse thinking of "others are afraid of me and I am greedy", in factThis kind of anti-human nature may be more reflected in the fact that we need to look at the market with a calm mind。The so-called unfazed, pampered and humiliated, forgetful,".Life isn't as good as you think it is, and it's not as bad as you think",* It's the same. When we detach ourselves from the hideous short-term appearance and pursue the underlying laws and logic, we may find that the law of value is always at workThere have always been many opportunities in the market, and there have always been potential risksIt's just that we need to be calm and look at it all calmly.
Back to investment, we can refer to the long-term risk-return characteristics of different types of indices to do a good job in expectation management.
(Data**: Wind, as of 2023.)12.29. Past performance of the index is for reference only and is not indicative of future returns).
As can be seen in the above table, the higher the expected return, the greater the risk of volatility and drawdown. We need to combine our actual risk tolerance and liquidity needs, set reasonable long-term investment goals and implement them firmly, maintain sober judgment, and not be too optimistic and pessimistic when the market is the same.
AI, whenever the tide comes
Whenever the tide comes, it is not necessarily sad, but many people may be a little worried. Some people are afraid that new technologies will kill them, some are worried that they will not keep up with the wave and fall behind, some are afraid to invest in concepts and bubbles, and some are worried that they will go in the wrong direction and miss out on huge wealth.
From the end of last year, ChatGPT was born, to the recent Gemini, Pika once again caused heated discussions in the market, AI large models continue to iterate and innovate, homeopathic has brought a wave of AI theme investment fever, although there is a lot of ** in the second half of the year, but thanks to the momentum of the first half of the year, the AIGC index still achieved 52 during the yearThe 33% increase, compared with the CSI 300 index, the excess return is very obvious, whether you invested in AI at the beginning, is one of the key factors affecting this year's yield. (Data**: Wind, as of 2023.)12.29）
(Data**: Wind, as of 2023.)12.29. Past performance of the index is for reference only and is not indicative of future returns).
Looking back at this round of AI ** now, it makes no sense to stay at the conclusion of "if the position is full at the beginning" or "how good it is to take profit in the middle of the year", because the time will not return to the beginning of the year, and there is a high probability that this year's ** will not be repeated next year. What we really need to do is to look at the essence through the phenomenon and summarize what we should do when we encounter this kind of disruptive technological breakthrough in the future.
First of all, it is necessary to make it clear that as an ordinary person outside the industry, even if this situation is encountered again, it is not recommended to blindly follow the trend to enter the market, scientific and technological innovation will always have a process of removing the false and retaining the truth, history has proved again and again, whenever a major technology appears, the market is often not very rational, and will "touch the family" The company will be wiped out, and the result will be ushered in after a period of cooling.
"Don't overestimate the short-term, don't underestimate the long-term".Maintaining a learning mindset while sticking to the principles of investment may be a more suitable way for ordinary investors to treat major technological breakthroughs. For industries that are in line with the trend of the times and lead the development of the times, we will try to grasp it as much as possible if our risk tolerance allows, but we will not lose confidence because of short-term fluctuations, and wait patiently for technological innovation and commercialization of corresponding products.
Dividends, don't think of it when you're on a risk-off ride
In the context of the slow economic recovery, the overall performance of equity assets is weak, and the safe-haven assets with outstanding anti-risk ability and defensive attributes have been "red" all the way, such as the dividend low volatility 100 index, which has accumulated **8 during the year74%, which is one of the few equity asset classes with positive returns this year. On the other hand, this year, driven by the wave of AI, the US market has basically presented a unilateral Nasdaq Technology market capitalization-weighted index that investors envy by more than 80% this year. (Data**: Wind, 2023.)01.01-2023.12.29）
Dividends are on fire, but when many investors set their sights on dividends, they found that they usually pay little attention to such low-volatility safe-haven assets, and now they pay attention to it, but it seems that they will fall into the embarrassing situation of chasing high. U.S. stocks are also on fire, but I always feel that they have risen a lot, and I can't hold it in my heart.
But if there are any lessons to be learned, we think that one should be a combination of thinking, and the other is a scattered consciousness. Whether it is the popular "dumbbell configuration" or the traditional theoretical "pyramid" configuration, a healthy combination needs "ballast stone". For investors with a lower risk appetite, it may not be necessary to allocate most of their funds to medium- and high-risk products.
From the perspective of diversification, whether it is risk-return characteristics, investment style, asset class, or asset country, diversification is important for the risk prevention ability of a portfolio. Due to the differences in the degree of economic development and core industries of various countries, the driving factors of asset returns are different, and the returns** are more diversified. Overseas markets have a low correlation with A**, and compared to betting on a single market, global allocation can help further diversify investment risks.
Xiaojing said
Finally, we have overcome many difficulties and challenges, and we are about to say goodbye to 2023. And 2024 will start with a new morning, when you wake up from sleep, open the curtains, and you and I will be greeted by the first rays of sunshine in 2024.
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