On January 1, 2024, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism released the cultural and tourism market situation during the 2024 New Year's Day holiday. **According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the New Year's Day holiday is 3 days, and the national domestic tourism travel is 13.5 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 1553%, an increase of 9 on a comparable basis compared with the same period in 20194%；Achieved domestic tourism revenue of 797300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2007%, an increase of 5 from the same period in 20196%。
Consumers' enthusiasm for travel has been ignited, and the New Year's Day tourism consumption market ushered in a "good start", with per capita consumption improving and ice and snow tourism booming, which is expected to drive the performance growth of relevant listed companies.
Combined with the research views of a number of institutions, it is believed that:
The recovery momentum of the tourism industry is strong.
After the full liberalization of the epidemic prevention policy at the end of 2022, the demand for "self-pleasing" consumption has increased sharply, becoming the development direction of emerging consumption patterns. As a representative of "self-pleasing" consumption, the tourism market has a strong recovery momentum, and domestic tourism revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 reached 37 trillion yuan, recovering to 80 in the same period of 20190%, and the number of domestic tourists was 36700 million passengers, recovering to 84 in the same period in 20197%。Residents' willingness and spending power are still steadily recovering, and there is room for the release of consumption scenarios, and the tourism market is expected to continue to recover in 2024.
2. New Year's Day orders increased highly, and tourism consumption was further restored
According to Meituan statistics, as of December 27, the number of travel bookings (including accommodation, tickets, transportation, etc.) for the 2024 New Year's Day holiday increased by more than 500% year-on-year, and the consumer demand in the tourism market has further recovered.
Judging from the New Year's Eve crowd, young people are enthusiastic about traveling. According to Ctrip data, during the New Year's Day holiday in 2024, the main groups of people traveling are the post-00s, post-90s, and post-80s, accounting for % and 23% respectively, of which the number of post-00s participating in tourism increased by 2% year-on-year5 times, showing obvious youthful characteristics, "New Year's Eve tour" has become a popular choice for young people, young people have gradually changed from the traditional New Year's Day celebration to a more ceremonial travel experience, theme park ticket bookings have surged, and concerts have become a popular event for New Year's Day travel.
Young people's pursuit of diversified and personalized entertainment methods will drive the development of related industry companies, and from the age structure, the trend of consumption upgrading will maintain rapid growth in the next few years, and the willingness to consume tourism will continue to increase.
3. Outbound travel consumption is expected to continue to recover.
International flight capacity continues to recover, stimulating outbound demand. In 2023, the flight volume of China's civil aviation international routes will basically maintain a good month-by-month growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 768% in November, and a recovery rate of 51 in the same period in 20195%。Since March 2023, many airlines have announced the resumption and opening of a number of international routes. With the increase in capacity, it is expected that direct air tickets** will generally decline, which will stimulate outbound demand to a certain extent and achieve a positive cycle.
The visa-free policy has brought new impetus to the recovery of the industry. Since December 1, China has implemented a unilateral visa-free entry policy for six countries, including France and Germany, while Malaysia, Sri Lanka and other countries have also announced visa-free facilitation measures for Chinese tourists. The visa-free policy has effectively reduced residents' concerns about outbound travel, driven the consumption of round-trip international flights and the number of orders for tourism products, and continued to have a strong boosting effect on the recovery and growth of outbound travel demand.
A quick overview of the data of various industries during the New Year's Day holiday:
Duty-free: On the first day of the New Year's Day holiday in 2024, that is, on December 30, 2023, Haikou Customs will supervise a total of 18.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6 compared with the first day of the New Year's Day holiday in 2023 (the same below).8%；Number of duty-free shoppers 2660,000 person-times, an increase of 32 over the same period on New Year's Day in 20238%；The per capita consumption is 6,843 yuan.
Duty-free: On December 28, 2023, CDF Sanya International Duty Free City Area C was officially unveiled after 3 days of trial operation.
Outbound travel: According to the National Immigration Administration**, the average daily number of inbound and outbound passengers at ports across the country will reach 1.56 million during the New Year's Day, an increase of more than five times compared with the New Year's Day holiday in 2023 and 90% of the same period in 2019. According to Ctrip data, the top 10 popular overseas destinations on Chinese New Year's Eve this year are: Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Macau, Malaysia, Singapore, the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
Mount Emei: At 10 o'clock on December 31, the Management Committee of Mount Emei Scenic Area issued an announcement that the single-day tickets of the scenic spot are limited to 34,000, and as of 8:40 on December 31, the tickets for the scenic spot on January 31 have been sold out.
Guangdong: According to preliminary statistics, the province received 1447 tourists90,000 person-times, a year-on-year increase of 781%, an increase of 8 from 20195%；Achieved tourism revenue of 890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 991%, an increase of 121%。
Sichuan: During the New Year's Day holiday, the 832 A-level tourist attractions included in the statistics in the province received a total of 914 tourists900,000 person-times, achieving ticket revenue of 8,314530,000 yuan, an increase compared with the same caliber in the same period in 2023. 60%；Compared with the same caliber in the same period in 201, they increased respectively. 31%, comprehensively exceeding the pre-pandemic level.
Jiangsu: During the New Year's Day of 2024, the province received a total of 1,421 tourists660,000 person-times achieved a total tourism income of 1717.8 billion yuan, an increase of 122 percent year-on-year in 20236 and 1269%, an increase of 15 percent on a comparable basis compared with 20197% and 182%。(Huaxi**).
Underlying Index Opportunities:
Huaxi** said that the industry is at the bottom of pro-cyclical expectations, focusing on operating improvement and valuation repair.
CSI Tourism Theme Index (930633CSI) selects listed companies involved in scenic spots, travel agencies, hotels, aviation airports and other sectors as constituent stocks, and the top four industries are aviation airports (380%), tourism and scenic spots (25.).9%), hotel catering (19.).9%), travel retail (134%), accounting for more than 95% in total, fully reflecting the overall performance of listed tourism companies and providing diversified investment targets for the market.
Chart: CSI Tourism Theme Index covers industries (Shenwan Level 2).
Chart: Top 10 weighted stocks in the CSI Tourism Theme Index (not recommended as **).
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Data**: Wind, Shenwan Hongyuan**, Huajin**, Founder**, Southwest**, Huaxi**. As of 202312.31. According to the secondary industry classification of Shenwan, the above ** is not recommended for investment. Index performance does not represent product performance, and secondary market performance** does not represent net performance.
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