That is, two or three months ago, foreign investors were collectively bearish on China's economy and bearish on A-shares!
Even Moody's downgraded China's credit rating outlook. (The actual rating has not been adjusted).
All of a sudden, pessimistic expectations are getting stronger and stronger.
What is more interesting is that A-shares continue to be bearish under the strong bearishness of foreign capital.
Quite a few ** commented like this:Foreign investors still have the vision to know that A-shares are hopeless.
This is a psychological trap of seeing is believing, when people see that a phenomenon is consistent with a certain statement, they will assume that the statement is correct.
For example, back then, everyone was saying, ** will not let housing prices fall. Later, housing prices continued to rise, so I said self-righteously: I'm right, how can housing prices fall?
But let's not think about it carefully, why did foreign capital collectively sing about us at that time?
Just two or three months later, they were collectively bullish on China and A-shares. Is there something wrong with the brain?
Let me share a story with you.
Soros sniped at Hong Kong back then, was the little money in his hand enough?
It is clearly not enough.
But he knows how to use his strength.
With the help of **, he overwhelmingly sang about the vulnerability of Hong Kong's finance.
It scared Hong Kong's institutions and residents out of the way, and everyone was worried that Hong Kong's financial problems would go wrong, so there would be a consensus of expectations and actions. Commonly known as conformity!
Everyone has sold Hong Kong stocks and the Hong Kong dollar to grab the dollar.
After creating chaos, Soros can bring the collapse of ** and exchange rate with a small amount of money.
Why would the masses believe it?
One of the important reasons is that Soros has successfully brought down Southeast Asia and South Korea. That's why they think that Hong Kong can't escape!
It is precisely because of the panic aroused by the masses that something that has nothing to do can also cause a big incident.
It's like a bank.
Originally, there was nothing to do, but as long as depositors were afraid that the bank would not be able to pay, they would rush to run on it. As a result, all banks will go bankrupt.
Finance is something that is built on faithIt's very ethereal.
So let's think about it carefully, what is the purpose of this collective singing of foreign capital?
Whether it is an institution or a ** on A-shares, confidence is already very fragile. It can be said that it will shatter at the slightest touch.
Originally, the Fed has turned, and it stands to reason that foreign capital should at least not continue to short.
But what if they want to buy cheaper chips?
Three methods:First, through ** and ** continue to be bearish, scare investors, create panic and stampede;
Second, the downgrade will affect the concerns of overseas institutions
Third, first use a small amount of money to smash the plate, smashing out a panic, so that domestic capital can't bear to cut the meat at the bottom.
Moreover, once domestic capital starts to cut meat, it will cause more people to cut meat, which is simply the effect of four or two thousand catties.
In short, in the end, the A shares were successfully dragged into the water. So that the valuation of A-shares, which is the lowest level in the world, can be lower.
At this time, foreign investors who want to build a position will take advantage of the chaos to pick up bloody chips.
In other words, many domestic-funded institutions and ** are not aware of being used as guns.
Because they can't bear the pressure, they will scold and complain together, making the environment worse.
As a result, we saw that the management began to ban bearish and bearish speech.
Of course, many people are still very unconvinced, thinking that this is *** on freedom and is not allowed to tell the truth.
However, do the masses really know the truth?Are you really telling the truth?
For such a super complex field as the economy and **, even experts can't understand it thoroughly, let alone ordinary people.
When foreign investors think that the time is ripe, they will start to sing long in reverse.
No, recently, foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, and Oak have begun to look long.
He also analyzed the head-to-head and said that A-shares are extremely valuable.
Not only will valuations be restored, but earnings will improve. It is expected that the profit growth rate of CSI 300 constituent stocks will reach 11% in 2024.
However, because the two or three months have broken the hearts of investors, many people will not come back in the short term, and many people will sell by habit.
Do you think foreign investors will be happy?
And at this time, overseas liquidity continues to improve, and U.S. Treasury interest rates continue to hit new lows. Foreign capital happens to have a large amount of money waiting to open a position.
They wish they could cut the meat at the bottom and hand over the cheap chips.
Driven by foreign capital, the performance of ** stocks has been significantly better than that of small cap stocks in the latest week.
The CSI 300 fell slightly by 013%, CSI 1000**366%, CSI 2000**345%。
The style conversion of this valuation repair is very heart-wrenching, because in the process of style conversion to **, the CSI 300 was smashed hard.
Everyone says that the spine of A shares is soft, but in fact, it is not that A shares are not good, but that the people in A shares are not good.
Who are the people in A-shares?It's not just you, me and him!
One of the important things this week is,Major banks cut deposit rates.
This usually means that a rate cut is likely next month.
However, this strength is not enough, and the central mother should continue to cut the RRR and interest rates!
Yesterday, the GC007 interest rate jumped to 6%, which shows that the capital side is a little tight again.
Yang Ma's movements are too slow!You have to be more active!
It is estimated that all departments will wait for the end of the year before taking action.
Now the bond market is already trading in the expectation of a RRR cut. It depends on whether the central mother will cut the RRR more than expected before New Year's Day. There is a real lack of liquidity right now!
Another important thing is that yesterday the game industry collapsed by the policy.
Roughly meaning:Online games are not allowed to set up inducing rewards such as daily login, first recharge, and continuous rechargeAll online games are subject to a user deposit limit.
Although this is only a draft for comments, the market reaction has been fierce.
How big is the impact?
The answer is:I don't know!
Don't be surprised, the ups and downs of this sector have nothing to do with performance.
It's more relevant to the concept of liquidity and hype.
And the game itself is actually a bad business, so there is no need to analyze the value. These companies do not have moats, and the certainty of whether a game can be popular or not, and for how long, is very low.
Will it be able to rise in the future?It mainly depends on the imagination space of the AI.
And for something as addictive as gaming, how much impact can it have on limiting the amount and frequency of top-ups?
Those who want to play can't stop it. (Think liquor and cigarettes).
As long as you don't stop the version directly, it's not a big deal.
StillWith this news, there will be a certain adjustment in the gaming sector, and it will accelerate the style switch during the valuation repair period.
That is, the rhythm of the dominance of the ** stock style will be accelerated.
When the funds come out, you have to find a place to go!Looking at the foreign capital pulling the platform on the side of the ** shares, what do you guess these funds will do?
Yesterday, the northbound funds began to return at the end of the morning session, but they were interrupted by the bearishness of the game.
However, at the end of the afternoon, they still readjusted their rhythm, made up for the chips, and pulled up the stock price of ** shares. (It's the old routine).
For Hong Kong stocks Hang Seng Technology and Chinese concept stocks, this wave of ** will end early clearance. It's not necessarily a bad thing.
At present, the PE, PB, and PS of China are all at the lowest level in history. (Caused by the rapid recovery of stock price ** and fundamentals).
With such a valuation, there is a panic discount, and Mr. Market is indeed crazy enough.
From the perspective of volume and energy, the volume continues to increase, indicating that the strength of the bears continues to be exhausted.
And the bulls are not in a hurry to open positions, so the long white candle that has not yet turned has not yet appeared.
Seeing a small amount of money at the end of the day can greatly pull up the index, which is enough to show that the plate is very light.
It's just that the inflection point of the joint efforts of funds to launch an upward offensive is difficult to be accurate**.
But once the force is started,We can even see a one-day surge of more than 5%**Don't think it's impossible.
The market rally is extremely short-lived, and if you miss the rally, all the waiting will be in vain.
The current market is like holding a ginseng fruit tree, and once the ginseng fruit falls, it will go into the soil.
So we can only wait for the ginseng fruit to fall for a moment!
It's just that this tree is full of thorns, and from time to time snakes and insects will crawl out to bite you and scare you.