A few core questions about trading:
Cycles, main lines and faucets.
Technology, strategy and refinement.
1. Cycle, main line and faucet.
Regarding ** trading, many people think that buying shares is buying a company, which is right in the primary market, and can only be said to be partially right in the secondary market!
The market is a changing ecosystem, and the main characteristics of the market in different periods are the main characteristics of investors in different periods, as well as their behaviors and cognitions. There is no doubt that the current market, which is composed of different proportions of institutions, floating capital and **, is an ecosystem full of speculation.
I have always believed that value investing has a high status and value. In the same way, I believe that speculation has the same status and value in the market. Speculation and investment are like the back of the hand and the palm of the market, the two are opposites and unified, and both are important parts of market transactions. It's just that the weight of the market is different in different periods. In the current environment, speculation is obviously the main way for the main capital to participate.
If you want to gain wealth in the current market, strive for excess returns. It is necessary to participate in the market according to the characteristics of the current market ecosystem, which is the key to the success of individuals in the market.
Then, in an ecosystem full of speculation, the most important trading pattern is a speculative mode that combines the short and medium term.
In this speculative mode, it's really just a tool to be exploited!
With this in mind, you should no longer be superstitious or obsessed with a single fundamental and technical issue.
Fundamentals and technicals are subordinate elements in speculative mode, they are not core elements. The subordinate elements represent, and they are not the most central decisive factors.
So, you'll find out:
First, among the big rises, many of the fundamentals or technicals are good, which will make people think that the big rise is because of the fundamentals or technicals.
Second, there are many good fundamentals and technicals in the market, but there has been no big rise, which makes people wonder why not rise
The reason for this is that they are subordinate factors, not determinants. This is where the speculative market differs from the investment market.
This reminds everyone that in actual combat, don't simply think that the fundamentals, performance, and technology should rise sharply. This kind of perception is the trading model of many ordinary stockholders, and it is a trading model based on wrong perceptions.
Trading is a payment to cognition!
Therefore, it is difficult for ordinary shareholders to succeed in the trading model!
To fight in a market where speculation is rampant. It is necessary to understand the main patterns of this market and its essence and characteristics.
The main mode corresponding to the current speculative mode is:Short- to medium-term trading mode.
What I want to share with you is the essence of the ** trading model.
If you want to win in the current market, you must focus on the short- and medium-term trading mode!
The essence of trading: market games.
What is the basis or core of the market game?It's a market cycle.
Market cycles can bring significant trading opportunities and risks.
Therefore, trading is not a trading model with fundamentals, technical and policy as the core.
A word of truth**It is a trading model with cycles as the core.
Why we often encounter the following situations in the market:
The performance of one ** has increased significantly, but the stock price has not risen sharply. The technical side of a ** is very classic, and the stock price is only **, and there is no big movement. And some policies and important news are released, and the stock price is often unfazed!
However, the market has turned around and improved, and most of them, regardless of the good or bad, will appear to be certain and good. Moreover, more often than not, the fundamentals of the leading and strong stocks that have skyrocketed are ordinary.
Most people in the market can't figure out what went wrong!
The secret lies in the wrong "timing", which is the cycle. Once you step on the wrong cycle, other factors will not work!
And when the timing is right, you will find that the performance is good, the technical aspect is good, and there are policies and news thorns.
If you are excited, you are likely to get out of the eye-catching**.
Fundamentals, technicals, policies, and news are mainly the icing on the cake in trading. These factors play an important role when the game is in a favorable situation.
So, whether these factors are important or not depends on timing. When the timing is right, they are very important and can add to the "game" and thread the needle!You feel that fundamentals, technicals, policies, and news are very important. But in fact, the key to the key is the cycle!
Period:It is extremely important for ** trading and is the fundamental basis for trading decisions.
Knowing the cycle is the first and most crucial word for enlightenment.
What is a cycle?
Cycle is a natural attribute unique to the market, which is the joint effect of natural laws, human nature, and economic and political elements.
The earth is round, the sun is round, day and night alternate, and the seasons are reincarnated. All things in the universe are based on the Tai Chi principle, yin and yang change, cathode yang, and yang yin.
The Tai Chi principle of the market is the cycle.
The market always alternates between bull and bear markets, driving waves and correction waves, and making money and losing money, which are all specific manifestations of the market cycle.
The essence of the cycle is that it embodies the biggest "momentum" in the market.
Momentum is the king of trading!
Trading is not the same as investing!
The fundamental principle of trading behavior is: follow the trend, take advantage of the trend, use the strength to fight, and create heroes with the situation!The countless dazzling big ones in the market are the products of the market cycle and the heroes created by the market trend
Therefore, correctly knowing, understanding and grasping the market cycle is the first level of skill of professional traders.
The analysis of market cycles is sometimes simple, sometimes complex.
The market cycle can be expressed at various levels in terms of time. Different traders' understanding and grasp of the cycle level will be different in terms of application time and level due to different individual models.
In general, there are two main types of cycle levels corresponding to the ** pattern as I understand it.
One is the wave operation mode of the daily level, which is the daily wave level explained to you in the "No Gate Three Potential Quantitative Trading Method" class, which is the level of the short and medium line. We mainly participate in the driving waves of the daily level, and participate in the ** wave of the daily level correction wave.
The second type is a trading mode that focuses on understanding market sentiment. Make trading decisions by observing the sentiment of the money-making and loss-making effects in the market. The big money-making effect brings the big **, and the small money-making effect corresponds to the small**.
The money-making effect**, which focuses on the observation of market sentiment, can be reflected in waves at the daily level** or in smaller time levels**. The level of the money-making effect will correspond to the mode of ultra-short, ** and the middle line.
Therefore, there is a big difference in the same decision on market sentiment!You will see that speculators at different levels of time periods have different reactions to the market. Speculators who are accustomed to short and intermediate level will have a significantly different time of short positions and the frequency of participating in the market than ultra-short speculators. They are all professional speculators, and you will find that some people think that it is not an opportunity to wait, and some people will feel that they can start. For example, in a daily level adjustment wave, short- and medium-term speculators feel that the opportunity lies in the big ** wave on the structure. The ultra-short speculator is playing the alternate day mode, buying today and selling tomorrow, adjusting a small ** in the wave, and the market appears for two days, he will think it is an opportunity.
So, everyone plays, don't communicate more with people of different modes. Playing is a lonely journey. Settle down, find your own effective model, independent analysis and independent trading!Only by thinking independently can each transaction truly accumulate experience and mature.
* It is a skill, what kind of diamond diamond is what kind of porcelain work. What kind of technical level has been reached, go and play trading at the risk level of the corresponding cycle, and you must not take big risks beyond your ability!
For the analysis of the two types of cycle patterns, my point of view is to take into account, although it is the best transaction, but for the analysis level of opportunities, we should still look at the longer and larger. Because the greater the level of opportunity in the market, the greater the win rate, which is a matter of the big picture. The daily level wave cycle is in line with the idea of "looking at the short", which is a more common thinking of professional speculators.
To put it simply, it is to be able to see that the market has a relatively large space, and then to use the mode of operation, the success rate will be higher, and the operation has more advantages than the middle line in reducing risks, and it is not easy to be firm!
So,"Look at the short".The mode is a complementary model, using space at the midline level to guarantee the probability of chances, and using the best mode to strengthen the defense.
After taking into account the two types of cycle patterns, we can analyze the market through the wave structure at the daily level, analyze the market opportunities and risks in the short and medium term, and then observe the arrival and end of opportunities or risks with the help of the market's money-making and money-losing effects. The daily wave structure is good for establishing the big picture, but the delicacy is weakerThe market sentiment cycle does not analyze the overall situation enough, but it is easier to feel the emotional changes of the market keenly and delicately. Therefore, taking both into account is more conducive to understanding the market, similar to the combination of thick and thin.
Technical analysis of the wave structure at the daily level, which is taught in detail in the course. I would like to add here an understanding of the market sentiment cycle.
For the elaboration of the emotional cycle, the big guy ** raised the family in the most detail.
The so-called money-making effect: that is, the crowd of people generally make money, and the money-making effect appears. If there is a continuous money-making in the market, the best people will increase investment or repeatedly invest, and at the same time, they will attract hot money from outside the market to join and strengthen the money-making effect of the market, which is the herd effect. The initiation process of the money-making effect is usually divided into: fermentation, diffusion, climax (madness), hesitation, and finally extinction. Fear of short-term investment and repeated investment is an important feature of the money-making effect market.
Therefore, if there is a clear money-making effect in the market, it is logical to participate in it and make money. Why is there a money-making effect market?Obviously, this is not a completely random behavior, but mainly caused by market cycles of large and small levels.
The money-making effect caused by the market cycle is divided into large and small, the big ones are mainly structural opportunities (such as the upward driving wave of the wave, the **wave of the large level), and the small one may be the best opportunity.
The strength of the money-making effect is also related to the amount of participation of over-the-counter funds. If the market has obvious and continuous incremental capital entry, the intensity and sustainability of the money-making effect will perform better. Therefore, incremental funds are an important dimension to observe the money-making effect. Without a large number of strong capital participation, market opportunities cannot become real opportunities, and it is difficult to play a role in fundamental, technical, and policy benefits
Money Loss Effect: ** of the population generally begins to lose money after that. It represents the emergence of a money-losing effect. Fear.
It is an important feature of the money-losing effect market. If a lot of people want to sell as soon as possible after the market**. It shows that the market has entered a state of losing money. The initiation process is usually divided into: fantasy, hesitation, resistance, collapse, and liberation.
When we observe that the market has the above characteristics, we can understand the stage and situation of market sentiment, so as to guide trading decisions!
Of course, it is not easy to accurately judge the market cycle, and it is affected by the laws of nature, the political and economic environment, the capital policy, the intensity of funds, etc., there will be cycles of different sizes and different strengths of the cycle, which requires the accumulation of experience and flexible judgment.
The two types of cycles can correspond to three types of markets: strong markets, weak markets, and markets (equilibrium markets). The three types of markets will have different emphases in terms of speculation and stock picking. Strong market, must tightly fasten the strongest sector in the leading stocks, a strong market is the main market, must be the main rise plate and the main rise of the leading stocks, the main rise market institutional stocks, free capital stocks will have a good performance, the first shares and small and medium-cap stocks will have opportunities. The weak market does not talk about the main rise, it must be around the main sector to do the first shares, the market is dominated by free capital, the opportunity of small and medium-cap stocks is greater than the opportunity of medium ** stocks, and the stock selection should be based on the preference of free capital. For the **market, if you are bullish, you can do a certain ** latent, and then wait for the market to choose a breakthrough, the latent for the ** position structure and fundamentals have high requirements, in a downward trend, the fundamentals are garbage (there is no fundamental improvement expectation) ** do not do latent. If it is bearish, wait for an opportunity. Different markets have different characteristics, and the goals and priorities of trading are different, so different patience is required.
The above is the concept of the market cycle, which tells us: opportunities are given by the market!
Choosing the right period is the first step to participating in the right trades**.
Of course, there is a gap between reality and theory. Usually, the peak-to-trough trend of the industry cycle and the market cycle may support the industry from a bear market to a bullish one. However, A-share is not a child with a normal physique, it is too weak, it may not be converted normally according to this law, and the performance may lag or be weaker than expected!It depends on the strength of the funds on and off the floor.
Hot spot is the second keyword!
Mainstream, mainline, hot spots!
Why should the ** ticket focus on the hot plate?
* Why focus on the main line or hot spots?
The answer is simple!
Why the market can rise sharply, the essence is a cycle problem, the direct factor is that there is a strong group of funds to promote, and then there is the active participation of the majority of the world, the two conditions can be established to promote the formation of the market money-making effect, drive the market to produce a herd effect.
Therefore, the market needs two fundamental factors to support the sharp rise.
The first is to go long in the environment, so that most of the main capital groups dare to go long and are willing to go long. The second is that the main capital group should form a joint force in the market, form a group, and be able to effectively promote the market.
The long environment is determined by the cycle!The cycle determines the market opportunity and risk.
The so-called market opportunity is that the market has entered an environment conducive to longs and speculation in the cycle!When the cyclical environment is favorable, it is easy for the main capital group to reach a consensus and dare to go long. The cycle is unfavorable, and the bullish, wait-and-see, and bearish will flood the market. The understanding of the mainstream main capital groups is not unified, and it is impossible to form the best atmosphere and conditions if the market is divided.
When the cycle cooperates and the main group is willing to go long, if the sectors that everyone attacks are too scattered and independent, the market will also be scattered, and there will be no good money-making effect, so it will not be able to better attract more funds to participate, and the market will not rise well!
Therefore, the main force to form a joint force and form a local money-making effect is very important for the market
In fact, as long as the cycle is coordinated, the main capital groups will naturally go to the group to speculate and jointly promote the formation of hot spots.
This is because the common purpose of the main capital groups to speculate in the market is not to buy and grab equity, but to harvest and distribute wealth. The best way to harvest the best way, the most important condition, is to let the market rise, so that more people can participate, there is a large number of funds to enter, the distribution mechanism of the zero-sum game, in order to achieve the harvest of funds, this point should be remembered.
The main force is not able to harvest at any time, and the best time must be endorsed by the money-making effect. The essence of the harvest is the redistribution or transfer of wealth. Without attracting a large amount of ** capital into the market, into the sector, into the **, there can be no talk of redistribution or transfer of wealth.
Therefore, creating a money-making effect in the market is where the common goal and interests of the main capital groups lie, and where the expectations lie.
In each round of **, you will see that the mainstream main capital groups will definitely focus on attacking 1-2 plates, thus forming hot spots, leading from points to areas, and using hot spots to drive the overall market upsurge. The sharp rise of the market needs hot spots to stimulate, and it also needs hot spots to realize the exchange and harvesting of chips.
Hot spots are important for the market. In the A** market, market funds are limited for a long time, and limited funds cannot support the general rise in most market opportunities. Only by choosing to form a concentrated group on the 1-2 plate can the main capital group of the market promote the formation of a money-making effect locally and create large and small harvests. The hot spot itself is the result of the grouping behavior of the main force naturally due to interests.
Hotspots are more important for **. ** is a money-driven city. Only a limited amount of market funds can focus on speculating on a certain sector or ** in order to promote the sharp rise of the sector or **. Profit and loss are of the same origin, and those who can harvest can also help make money. The key to victory and defeat, success and failure lies in human nature!
In the market, where the hot money is, where the opportunity lies.
No matter how good the technical indicators are, no matter how good the fundamentals are, there is no hot money, no strength and capital to promote, ** can't rise sharply, and making money is the moon in the water!
So,The second step of the correct ** is to follow the strongest and hottest money in the market.
Where money is the strongest and hottest, it is the main line, the mainstream and the hot spots.
Now let's talk about the plate problem.
If you can't keep up with the main line, mainstream and hot spots, it's hard to make money in the market!It's not possible to catch big fish in a fish pond without big fish, that's basic common sense!
The formation of the main line, the mainstream and the hot spot is often formed with the theme plate or industry plate as the entry point.
Therefore, plate analysis (subject matter and industry analysis) is a very important homework after choosing the right cycle. The plate takes the leader as the benchmark!
People often ask, is it the leader that makes the plate, or the plate that makes the leader!It's a question of mutual fulfillment!
Normally, if a subject or industry receives the attention and speculation of market funds, there will be a ** that continues to be hyped by funds, and the trend is the strongest, and this ** is the easiest to become a leader (the leader is coming out). And the stronger and more sustainable a plate is (both are indispensable), it is also the most beneficial for the growth of the faucet. At the same time, if the sector is to be strong and sustainable, it also needs leading stocks to play out of space first, become market heroes, become the spiritual leader of the plate or market, get out of the plate or market dragon, and attract a large number of funds to participate. The leading effect promotes the development of the plate, the plate effect promotes the development of the market, and the market and the plate are strong and can escort the leader, and the three are interactive structures.
Of course, in the hype, the benchmarking effect and leader effect of the leader are very prominent. Faucets have a very big impact on sustainability. Normal**, the faucet does not fall** does not end. The big ** may go out of the 10 times the faucet and promote the development of the ** in depth. There may also be a plate leader who takes turns to switch, and under a main line, the branch plate and the branch leader switch high and low to promote the development of the first plate.
Therefore, the third step of the correct ** is to choose the faucet.
Stars stick to the moon!The faucet is the fattest and safest meat on the market.
Where the money is, where the popularity is, where the popularity is, where the ** is!
Meat fat and safety go hand in hand. Profit and loss are the same, the safest is the capital, and the most dangerous is also the capital. The most concentrated funds and the best liquidity are the safest. Funds withered and illiquid are the most dangerous.
Capital is the core, and in a well-funded and highly liquid market, it is difficult to participate in the market without making money. In a market with a lack of funds and extremely poor liquidity, it is also difficult to participate in the market without losing money
If you want to achieve the future, only the leader can help you realize the road to financial freedom!Therefore, it is unimaginable that stock selection leaves the leader to talk about achieving ** wealth!
The cycle is right, how to choose the plate?
A set of keywords: story + least resistance direction!
Trading is a game, and a game needs a story as a carrier!
Stories are the most effective way to move events forward.
Social development needs stories, and hype needs stories!
The process of human society is full of stories, and stories are the needs of human society and human nature.
* is a place that values stories very much, because the market hype needs stories as an introduction. Only with stories can we attract the attention of the public, arouse the public's wealth fantasies, and arouse the public's participation!
Soros said
The economic history of the world is a serial drama based on illusions and lies. To gain wealth, it is necessary to recognize its illusions.
And put in it in advance. Then quit the game before the illusion is known to the public.
The main capital groups should speculate on the market in a group, and they should use stories as carriers to weave a series of illusions and lies to arouse widespread attention in the market, attract the attention of the majority of shareholders, and actively participate in it.
What kind of story hype will the main force choose!
The goal of the hype is to attract the participation of the majority of **!Attract capital inflows!
Therefore, what the market likes, what the public likes, what attracts the attention of the market the most, and what is the most imaginative, the main force will hold together to speculate!This is the easiest way to hype.
Therefore, the hype story is diverse, and the theme, news, and events can all become the introduction of the story hype!And the truth of the matter is not the core, as long as the market likes it, the market believes it, it is the best hype story!The target of group speculation cannot be done at will, it must be chosen to play what the market likes!
So, the story is a specific product of this particular market hype!
Of course, there is one more important condition for the hype of the story!It is to follow the principle of least resistance direction.
Harvesting market money is the fundamental purpose of speculation. First, it must be able to attract a large number of first-class funds to participate, and second, it must be conducive to the completion of the harvest. In order to attract a large number of capital participation, it is necessary to use stories as bait, and it is necessary to use wealth stories that are popular with you, and with stories, the market can produce a money-making effect, and it is easy to attract the attention of the market. To facilitate the harvest, it is necessary to exert force in the direction of the least resistance in the market, and it is necessary to choose the most favorable cycle, and choose the plate with the least resistance in the structure and chip structure to play.
A plate, if the story is attractive, the first structure of the plate and the chip structure have less resistance, when the cycle is suitable, it is easy to hype!
**The essence of ups and downs is cyclical behavior and capital behavior.
Different main capital groups take advantage of market conditions and their own advantages to promote the rise and fall of the sector and the market in the market.
Every small** start-up is a hype launched by the main capital groups with different conditions. Only by understanding the conditions and characteristics of the first and the type and characteristics of the funds launched can we better understand the hype of each round.
To understand the market is to understand the conditions, characteristics and corresponding types of mainstream capital behaviors that occur in each round.
Long-term funds, institutional funds, ** funds, and super ** funds, there will be differences in the understanding of market opportunities, and the grasp of market opportunities will be different. For the various ups and downs of the market, it is necessary to carefully analyze the characteristics of the market and observe the behavior and purpose of the corresponding main force. So as to decide whether your own model is suitable for participation!
The market's funds are limited for a long time, the opportunities in the market are limited, and the start of a round of ** will inevitably attract mainstream funds to flow into 1-3 sectors, forming a siphon effect of funds. Other sectors that are not hot will be marginalized in the hype because there is no capital to pay attention to.
Opportunities correspond to the strength and sustainability of funds, not fundamental and technical issues. For **, for trading, you must participate in the sector or ** with capital strength and sustainability, and you must not be obsessed with the fundamentals. No matter how good the financial fundamentals are, there will be no chance without strong funds to pay attention to!We should pay attention to this issue in actual combat!
Money is king!
In actual combat, you must not trade at will!Trading is an extremely strict and serious thing!
Be sure to invest your principal in large cyclical opportunities and sector opportunities, or invest in large dragon and demon stock opportunities.
If you don't participate seriously and easily, you will miss out on the opportunity of the big cycle.
Pure technical and fundamental analysis cannot be used as a trading decision, this is a trap!Decisions should be based on opportunities for large cycles and sectors.
It is difficult and unworkable to simply find the opportunity to rise sharply through the study of technical and fundamental aspects. The main rise of **, in most cases, is to take advantage of the market cycle ** and the sharp rise of the sector. ** should judge the market cycle and the opportunity of the sector to rise, and then wait for the opportunity to follow the opportunity to participate in the ** big rise.
What can be grasped through technical indicators:
The first is to observe the overbought and oversold sectors and **;
The second is to observe the least resistance between the plate and the **.
Therefore, it is possible to use technical indicators to find the technical **, but if you want to find the opportunity of the main rise through fundamentals and technical indicators, the opportunity to rise is unrealistic.
The reason why it is necessary to use multiple periods in observing whether the stock price reverses is because it is difficult to analyze the reversal with technology, the reversal is to come out, and the purpose of using multiple cycles is to increase the probability!
The operation of strong funds will make the technical indicators run regularly. At the same time, the oversold and overbought indicators will also provide decision-making guidance for operations.
The usefulness of technology is limited, and it is useful to use it properly.
Note: When understanding market sentiment, if you bring in the definition of the nature and stage of the market, you will have a more holistic view of the understanding of market sentiment!
Forward-looking judgment of hot spots:
* The most correlated degree of development is the cycle, and the cycle has differences and differences in the impact of the market nature (bears and bulls), level and time.
* Development is directly related to policy, science and technology, events, and social and public health. Some of these connections can be forward-looking.
For example, the issue of policy.
The rollout of major policies is not an isolated issue. It is closely linked to social and economic development.
First, what problems have arisen in society and the economy will inevitably have a bearing on the adjustment and introduction of major policies. The adjustment and introduction of these major policies will affect the development of the first and the hype of hot spots.
The second is that it is related to some deep things in the economy. ** Relevant to certain aspects of the economy. Often when the market is too sluggish or overheated, there will be some management and stimulus policies to boost or suppress the market. It seems to be a coincidence, but it is actually inevitable!
Many times, the hype of hot spots can be forward-looking, mainly because we don't think deep or far!
IITechnology, strategy, and refinement.
*Tickets should have three core competencies:Technology, strategy, and refinement.
The biggest feature of * is indefiniteness, and playing with ** technology is to use certainty to solve uncertainty. **Three core competencies are required.