On December 19, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun published an article entitled "Japan is about to be reduced to a sideline role among developed countries", written by senior commentator Yoyuki Kotake. The following is an excerpt from the article:
Professor Miyagawa Nu of Gakushuin University in Japan said worriedly: "From an economic point of view, Japan may become the one who stands on the sidelines among the developed countries." Even if it's a pat on the shoulder by other members of the G7 and say, 'Brother, it's time for you to make a move,' there's nothing surprising. We need to push for economic reform with such a sense of crisis. ”
The economic situation is indeed dire. In 2021, for example, Japan ranked 20th out of 38 OECD member countries, using nominal gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of a country's affluence.
On November 2, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, Japan, to announce a 17 trillion yen economic stimulus plan. (Xinhua News Agency).
According to the Japan Center for Economic Research, Japan's growth rate is trending downward, with nominal GDP growing at an average of just 08%, the actual increase is 0%. The decline in labor force that accompanies the declining birthrate and aging population is a delay that cannot be compensated for by increasing labor productivity.
In 2023, Japan's nominal GDP will most likely be surpassed by Germany and become the fourth largest economy. Goldman Sachs** believes that Japan's economic aggregate ranking will slip to 6th place in 2050 and further to 12th place in 2075.
Will Japan be able to move out of the long-term economic stagnation known as the "lost 30 years" after the collapse of the bubble economy and move towards the "30 years of reconquest"?At the crossroads of change, we cannot simply indulge in the lament of political chaos.
The issue of political funding for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is shaking the foundation of Kishida's administration, which will undoubtedly cast a shadow over the future implementation of economic policy. But if the private sector is blindly dependent on ** and waiting for massive quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, it is difficult to give us any hope for the future.
The British newspaper The Economist warns against protectionist industrial and trade policies that have led the country's economy to an advantageous position. It is dangerous to put too much faith in market regulation mechanisms, or even in the means of state intervention. Japan is no exception.
Masayuki Morikawa, a distinguished professor at Hitotsubashi University in Japan, said: "Due to the declining birthrate and aging population, it is not easy to maintain a potential growth rate of a few tenths of a percent. **The focus should be on building a solid foundation for growth, rather than creating more demand. ”
*If the official measures do not stimulate the vitality of the people, it will also be equivalent to painting bread to satisfy hunger. Now is the time for the private sector to replace the official authorities and break down barriers.
Judging from the list of Fortune magazine's Fortune Global 500 companies, the number of Japanese companies selected has dropped from nearly 150 in 1995 to 40 in 2023. Of course, there are reasons for policy failures, but I think management failures also account for a large proportion.
Japan ranks only 29th among the 38 OECD countries in terms of labor productivity per capita, and ranks 32nd out of 64 countries and regions in the world in terms of digital competitiveness, including science and technology. The median age of new CEOs of listed companies is 60 years old, seven years older than the world average. The reality is that we cannot just criticize mismanagement and ignore the laziness of the private sector for reform.
The successive crises that followed the collapse of the bubble economy have left companies languishing and blindly seeking to avoid risks and reduce their size. Corporate governance reform and digital transformation have always been superficial, unable to break the shackles of the sequence of years of success. Even if you are in trouble, in the end you still wait for the rescue of ** or the central bank. Perhaps it is this attitude that has led to Japan's stagnation.
* |Reference message.