November is coming to an end, and the light snow season has arrived, but the traditional "peak season" scene has not appeared in the hog market. Although consumer demand has rebounded recently, due to the impact of climate change in the "warm winter", it is difficult for consumer demand for cured bacon to be fully developed. Under the pressure of live pigs, pig prices have been five times in a row, and the market is full of green. What's going on in the market?Let's take a closer look. According to official information, the current average wholesale price of pork in China is 1989 yuan kilogram, has fallen below 10 yuan kilogram. Compared to 33 in the same period last year45 yuan kg compared to the pork ** year-on-year decrease of 4054%。At present, the ordinary pork in the rural markets in the north and south markets is generally about 9 to 13 yuan. However, due to the abundance of pork**, consumers are not willing to actively stock up. At the same time, it is difficult to meet the demand for cured bacon in the southern region, while there is still a period of time before the consumption of pigs in the northern region, and the consumption follow-up is relatively slow, which also exacerbates the sluggishness of the market.
In the hog market, after the previous nine consecutive price increases, with the obvious rise in temperature in the southern region, consumption followed up and deteriorated. The speculation of pork curing in the southern region has cooled down, the demand for white pork in the downstream market has weakened, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined, and the farms have been slaughtered in advance, resulting in continued pig prices. According to the data analysis of the agency, on November 26, the average price of foreign ternary pigs fell to 1446 yuan kg, down 343%。In the market of different regions, there are obvious differences between the traditional high and low provinces and regions. Heijiliao** in the northeast fell to 1405 to 144 yuan kg, while the ** in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia dropped to 1405 to 141 yuan kg. The ** in the Shaanxi and Gansu regions bottomed out at 143 to 146 yuan kg, the Sichuan-Chongqing market ** dropped to 146 to 14Between 8 yuan and kilograms, the pig price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions bottomed out at 149 to 15Between 25 yuan kg, the ** of Henan market dropped to 1415 yuan kg, while the ** of the Guangdong market is stable at 153 yuan kg.
All in all, the current hog market is in a sluggish state, and pork continues to be in a state of recession. The slow recovery of consumer demand, coupled with the shortage of cured bacon**, leads to the peak season effect of the market is not obvious. The rise in temperature in the southern region and the lack of consumption follow-up have caused the pork ** to decline further. This phenomenon also varies from market to market. With the arrival of winter, the development of the pig market is still facing certain uncertainties, and further observation and analysis of market changes are needed. In addition, we can see from the behavior of market participants their judgments and expectations of market movements. The farms were slaughtered ahead of schedule, indicating that they are not optimistic about the future market;The decline in consumer demand for cured bacon indicates that they have no confidence in the continued substantial growth of pork. The downturn in the market also affects the participants, creating a vicious circle in the market. For enterprises and enterprises, it is necessary to strengthen market supervision and maintain the normal order of the market.
* The development of the pig breeding industry can be promoted through the issuance of subsidies;Enterprises can increase market share by improving product quality, expanding product sales channels, and increasing market share. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the supply and demand relationship in the pork market, adjust the law of pig slaughter, and avoid surplus, resulting in a large increase. Recently, the weather in the northern region has been unpredictable, which has led to an unstable mentality among farmers. They are worried about the risk of an outbreak, which makes them more inclined to pigs. Although the pig ** in the northern region is relatively sufficient, the market ** is not high, mainly based on local purchase and sales. On the other hand, consumer demand in the northern region is difficult to improve, and the market is relatively loose. There are also group pig enterprises to slaughter the competitive pressure is greater, and some large-scale pig enterprises have reduced prices more than expected. Therefore, the market sentiment is somewhat biased, long and short intertwined, the market is expected to maintain a narrow and weak trend, and even pig prices may fall below the previous 14 again3 yuan kg low. In contrast, the southern market has cooled more slowly, with minimum temperatures still above 10 in many places.
Therefore, it is difficult to realize the good pickling in Sichuan and Chongqing, and the enthusiasm of residents in central China is not high enough, and the difficulty of selling white pigs in the market has increased, and the large weight of pigs has been lowered. This has also exacerbated the pressure on the decline of local standard pigs. Due to poor demand, the slaughter of ** and large-scale pig enterprises is relatively positive, and the market pessimism is high. Overall, the hog market sentiment is slightly biased, and the long and short game is fierce. Due to the end of the month, the pressure of group pig enterprises to slaughter has not decreased, the average weight of pigs slaughtered has increased, and there is a surplus of pork in the market. However, it is difficult to realize the benefits of pickling in the south, the lack of increase in pork consumption, and the slaughterhouses are mostly based on sales, and the enthusiasm for starting work is not high. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow and weak trend, and pig prices may fall below the previous 14 again3 yuan is a low value for kilograms. However, as the temperature drops further, consumer demand will gradually increase. As the stage of pickling concentration is approaching, the trend of pig prices may improve significantly. This is news to look forward to. The recent pig price** has led to less stable market sentiment, but the author believes that this is something that must be experienced in the process of market correction.
Pig prices are likely to continue for some time to come**, but as temperatures drop further and cured demand increases, this will be a catalyst for higher pig prices. Therefore, we should remain calm and wait patiently for the market to pick up. In this process, farmers should not blindly slaughter, and should properly control the amount of slaughter, so as not to lead to oversupply.
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