Recently, I didn't wait for the highlight of the year-end wheat price surge, but only waited for the boundless decline, as if the road ahead was on the verge of collapse.
In particular, the biggest victim in the process of falling prices, the ** businessman, is full of regret for not being able to settle down in time, and full of pessimism and helplessness.
However, what is more difficult is that most of the pain caused by falling prices can only be solved by themselves, or they choose to escape from the downtrend, accept failure, and heal themselves quickly
If you don't stand firm and bullish, reorganize your purchase and sale strategy, win with a safe strategy, and become a lonely brave retrograde, while accepting the risk of deep price decline.
In fact, regardless of whether it is up or down, we must strive to make the most correct choice, if we want to be infinitely close, we must clarify the characteristics, the reasons for the price drop, and deduce the trend of the price, so as to improve the purchase and sales strategy.
Under normal circumstances, wheat prices have to go through the bottom space stage, the trend stage, the high operation stage, the trend stage, the current wheat price to the trend stage, has gone through three stages:
Initial decline. Wheat prices are running at a high level, the momentum of price increases is weakening, and the attitude of selling grain is differentiated, some choose to sell at a high level to lock in profits, and some are still full of enthusiasm and look forward to the pullback after the fall.
Rally. Wheat prices have fallen deeper, the main body has anti-price sentiment, trying to pull up wheat prices, and the arrival volume of deep processing enterprises has shrunk sharply, so they can only be forced to increase the purchase of **, stimulating the main body of grain to speed up the pace of grain sales.
Smart businessmen choose to escape during this period, sell and leave, get close to the highest point to the highest level, and obtain higher profits.
The main downturn period. The momentum of wheat prices is weak, the decline is deepening, hovering, and then the price is falling deeply, pessimism is flooding the market, and the confidence of the merchants is defeated, and even the choice of selling grain in the decline is fleeing.
Deep processing enterprises have the dominant power, taking the opportunity to reduce the price of acquisition, wheat prices fell very fast, want to smash the wheat price to the freezing point, limit the new cycle of room to rise.
Therefore, the game between purchase and sale seems to have no blades, no strategies and tactics, and the actual process is all real gold, which is extremely powerful.
There are those who are paralyzed and careless and lose the escape point, there are those who endure the pain of cutting wheat and stop the loss and leave the scene, and there are those who are deep in the bottom of the valley and sinking into the sand...The source of all this is because there is no insight into the reasons for the price drop, and the situation is diverted.
The ** of wheat price, quite has the meaning of "three people become tigers, ten husbands and vertebrae, all mouths move, and they do not fly", even if it is a rumor, but when it is universally recognized and a consensus is reached, it can become a storm and tsunami, with a monstrous power like a bamboo.
The consumer demand for flour is limited, and milling enterprises are strongly reducing prices. As of December, the domestic flour consumption market showed the characteristics of a weak peak season, and there was no expected strong consumption support, and the support of the consumer side was limited.
Flour deep processing enterprises are not smooth, the willingness to increase the purchase is weak, the willingness to hoard grain is not high, the procurement tonality is similar, and the price reduction rhythm is the same macro background, wheat prices have collapsed rapidly, and they are mired in falling prices.
**Business panic is fermenting, and the willingness to sell on the dip is strong. The price of wheat is high-speed, and there is no hope of falling the price again several times, which has smoothed out the bullish psychology of ** businessmen, and there is an extremely panicked aversion to falling.
This kind of psychology promotes the willingness to sell on the high to increase, and the amount brought by the sell-off limits the recovery space of wheat prices, and the deep processing enterprises re-reduce the price, and the rise and fall of the cycle is formed, forming a vicious cycle of obvious decline.
Important consumption nodes have been postponed, and dealers have a wait-and-see attitude. Domestic flour consumption has the characteristics of increasing festivals, and flour consumption can form a supporting force for wheat prices during the Spring Festival.
However, a little later than the Spring Festival in 24 last year, the first merchants lost the patience to hold grain, sold grain in batches, and superimposed due to the early stocking time, wheat prices are falling in price, flour consumption is moderately hungry, and flour dealers generally have a wait-and-see attitude, and the willingness to purchase is not strong.
The reality has reached an extremely dangerous situation, and the most frightening thing is that the price of wheat is bottomless, and although most of the past experience has lost its effectiveness, it is still necessary to establish the necessary response plan.
In the downward price trend, it is a sharp blade that is stored or sold to become a high hanging businessman, and the slightest carelessness is the defeat of the army and the end of the loss.
If you want to avoid risks, you must know that planning and moving later, and understanding the truth that the momentum is greater than the sky, is the key to successfully crossing the price decline cycle and making profits.
Recently, the wind and rain have not stopped, and the night is still deep. Wheat prices have gone through a cliff-like **, and the phased price drop ** is close to the tail, and those who want to sell have been sold out, and those who don't want to sell can maintain an optimistic attitude and prefer to hold on to the grain to rise.
This indicates that wheat prices will usher in a weak recovery in recent days, but due to the weak support of flour consumption demand, some ** merchants fled, and the ** after the rise and fall will be repeated.
In the long term, a light boat or over the 10,000 mountains. In the early stage, wheat production was reduced, sprout wheat flowed into feed, grain quality pollution, and several rounds of deep price declines**, and the inventory in the channel was gradually consumed.
In the face of flour consumption support brought by the Spring Festival, wheat prices can have the opportunity to re-escalate, but the price increase is not a certainty, and we must be vigilant in the process
The continuation of pessimism. December is a critical point in time, if the price of wheat falls or the dilemma of rising and falling, the sentiment of the main body of the market cannot be effectively compensated, and the expectation of wheat prices weakens.
This makes it impossible to get out of the soaring surge that has soared day after day even if the purchase in January is weak and the sales are strong, the flour consumption is expected to be realized, and the wheat price is surging
Instead, it shows a price increase-volume-** and then price increase**, and the high point of acquisition ** is like the rising sun, slowly rising, and the time and space for price increase must be limited.
On the contrary, if the price of wheat rises slowly in December, the bullish confidence of the main body is ignited, and it is connected with the rise in January to form a perfect price trend.
Auction of grain reserves. The large-scale rotation of grain reserves is an important obstacle in the process of wheat prices, and it can be known from the weekly statistics of grain reserves that the number and rhythm of grain reserves are very slow, and according to the past experience, January to April may be the stage of accelerating large-scale delivery.
This means that there may be a large scale of grain inflow into the market, limiting the space for wheat prices, or forming strong pressure to push wheat prices into a downward channel.
Finally, it should be said that water is impermanent, soldiers are impermanent, and the development of wheat prices is the same reason, there is no winning general, there is no strategy that can be stable and successful, and it is advisable to look at it positively, buy and sell cautiously, and weaken the risk of market operation.