Good medicine is good for disease, and good advice is good for action.
This is the bitter advice of the ancients to future generations, but our society today is still willing to listen only to good words, and consider those who point out and analyze problems as enemies.
Just like Evergrande, in fact, many foreign institutions have pointed out Evergrande's problems and risks many times, but we just think that others have bad intentions, and even reprimand those who point out the problems.
The end result?
As a result, the unfinished buildings left behind have ruined countless people's families, and the amount of debt left to the society is a big mess.
This is the result of one of the most typical, only liking to listen to good words.
Before the Evergrande thunderstorm, in fact, many foreign institutions had warned many times, but we believe that foreign countries are saying bad things about China and have ill intentions.
We can't believe it all, but can we refer to it and check if there really is such a problem?
The first foreign institution to point out Evergrande's problems was the American bearer Citron, which issued a 57-page short-selling report on Evergrande in 2012, warning investors about Evergrande's growing financial risks and blaming EvergrandeInability to pay debtswithThere is fraud in accounting
There is such a sentence in the report: ".Evergrande's end is already doomed, and what cannot be determined is only time.
This was fulfilled 11 years later.
At the same time, there was another noteworthy news, Vanke, a leading enterprise in the real estate industry at that time, reminded and warned many times:
With the advent of the first era in the real estate industry, enterprises should be cautious about changing the scale.
Since then, Vanke has been paying attention to controlling its own risks and operating conservatively, and we can also see that we have hardly heard of Vanke's unfinished buildings.
If it weren't for the shed reform, Evergrande might have thunderstormed earlier, and the consumers who would have been harmed would probably be a little less, and the harm caused would be smaller.
In 2015, the international rating agency Standard & Poor's changed Evergrande's long-term corporate credit rating from "b b-Downgrade tob+", the outlook isNegative, which has brought a lot of negative effects to Evergrande.
At that time, many domestic leaders thought that the United States could not see us well, this was rumor-mongering, this was attacking and slandering our capital market, and attacking and slandering our private enterprises.
To fight back".Intrigues abroadOur major and domestic rating agencies have stood in Evergrande.
For example, Dagong International, the famous "conscience of the nation", gave Evergrande the highest credit rating AAA rating together with the other two major domestic rating agencies, United Rating and China Chengxin International, when foreign rating agencies downgraded Evergrande's rating, with a stable rating outlook.
What is this concept?This is AAA is the highest credit rating, and the credit ratings that can be obtained are all central enterprise giants, such as State Grid, China Merchants, CITIC Group, etc.
This means that Evergrande has a strong ability to repay debts, even not affected by the economic environment, and the three major domestic rating agencies say that Evergrande has strong risk and cost management and monitoring capabilities.
As People's Daily Online said in an article published in 2015Evergrande has created a case study of Chinese corporate credit ratings."
Why do many institutions stand in line with Evergrande?
It is believed that this is ostensibly a downgrade of Evergrande's credit rating by American companiesIn essence, it is a competition between the two countries for the right to speak in the credit rating market.
At that time, the Yangtze River ** also issued a document sayingThis is a contest for the right to speak triggered by Evergrande's rating, which indicates that a healthy multi-level capital market is taking shape, China's capital market is becoming more and more mature, and the vision of enterprises is more objective.
It's a pity that everyone is busy standing in line, and not many people are seriously analyzing what the facts are
In April 2016, Standard & Poor's downgraded Evergrande's long-term corporate credit rating to "B-" from "B+" with a negative outlook. S&P believes that Evergrande's financial situation in 2015 deteriorated more severely than expected, and it does not expect a significant improvement in 12 months.
The S&P rating downgrade means that Evergrande Property's financial leverage has deteriorated significantly
In 2014, Evergrande Real Estate's total debt was 212 billion yuan
In 2015, Evergrande's total debt had risen to 370 billion yuan.
This time, domestic institutions did not collectively side with Evergrande.
Xu Jiayin personally visited a number of financial institutions one after another, and Xu Jiayin's purpose for doing this was naturally becauseThe endorsement of the rating agency is the passport to borrowing in the capital market.
Under Xu Jiayin's rush, a number of leading financial institutions have praised Evergrande, saying that the win-win cooperation between the two sides will continue to deepen.
In 2017, Evergrande surpassed Vanke with an annual sales volume of 373.1 billion yuan, and has been ranked TOP1 in China's real estate industry for many years since then.
Xu Jiayin also ascended to the throne of China's richest man with a net worth of 290 billion yuan.
But behind this, people ignore the high risk behind Evergrande's rapid expansion, and the reason why Evergrande can expand rapidly is precisely because of high turnover and high leverage.
It's just that behind Evergrande's rapid expansion is a high-turnover and high-leverage model.
In the two years from 2015 to 2017 alone, Evergrande's debt scale soared from 614.9 billion to 152 trillion.
It was not until 2021 that Evergrande's risks began to be gradually exposed in front of the public, and it was not until China Chengxin International, which had previously stood for Evergrande, adjusted the credit rating of Evergrande Real Estate, withdrew the main body and related debt ratings of Evergrande Real Estate from the credit rating watch list, and adjusted the outlook to negative, but the main credit rating of Evergrande Real Estate is still 3A level in China Chengxin International.
Then Evergrande could no longer hide its collapse.
The disasters caused by Evergrande began to unfold in front of everyone's eyes.
But we must also know that the collapse of a system will not involve only one evildoer, but will result in a combination of many aspects and circumstances.
If we had examined the facts earlier, not been busy taking sides, sought truth from facts, and were willing to refer to a little foreign opinion, I am afraid that we would not have ended up like today.
Evergrande also reminds us that we can't just listen to good words, let alone only good words
Of course, we should not just have a negative view, just take things as they are, and don't simply believe what the authority says.