Pakistan's expulsion of Pashtuns from Afghanistan, triggering regional crisis In the Middle East, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the dire lives of 2.2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, have attracted the attention of the international community. In another place, however, Pakistan is deporting millions of Afghan Pashtuns, an incident that has received little attention. Where will these Afghans go?How will relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan develop?And how will this crisis affect Central Asia, Iran, and the South Caucasus?Andrei Serenko, a Russian political scientist and head of the Center for Afghan Political Studies, gave an interview about this.
1 Three Purposes for the Expulsion of Pashtuns in Afghanistan.
Q: How many Afghan Pashtuns are there in Pakistan and how did they get there?
A: It is estimated that there are about 1.8 million Afghan Pashtuns in Pakistan.
The first of them came to Pakistan 50 years ago, when a coup d'état took place in Afghanistan, King Zahir Shah was overthrown, and the country was plunged into political turmoil. Some of these Afghans are armed men, but most are refugees.
Pakistan is not averse to the presence of these Afghans. Pakistan uses them as a rear base for the armed opposition in Afghanistan.
Initially, these fighters were Mujahideen groups fighting against the communist regime in Afghanistan, and later the Taliban. But after the Afghan Taliban came to power in Kabul in 2021, these people lost control.
In fact, the Taliban is not a very organized body. It's more of a brand, with various groups, factions, and forces underneath. Unity of command is very limited.
Therefore, when the Afghan Taliban came to power in Kabul, their victory became an example for the Pakistani Taliban (Pakistani Taliban movement). They declared war on the Pakistani army, security forces, and intelligence agencies, and vowed to establish the same emirate in Pakistan.
Fact**: Afghan refugee children play in a refugee camp in Peshawar, Pakistan.
The Pakistani Taliban are overwhelmingly Pashtuns. Pashtuns are spread across Pakistan and Afghanistan, separated by the Durand Line, the disputed border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghan Pashtuns and Pakistani Pashtuns are unusually united and support each other.
As a result, it is difficult for the Pakistani army to deal with the tactics of the Taliban and to eliminate militants in its own territory.
Islamabad believes that the trump card of the Pakistani Taliban movement is precisely the unity of the Pashtuns and the rear base in the country. Therefore, the Pakistani military decided to expel Afghan Pashtuns from Pakistan to Afghanistan. The move serves three purposes:
The first purpose is to put pressure on Kabul for the Afghan Taliban to adopt a more tolerant attitude in the fight against the Pakistani Taliban.
The second purpose is to push the training camps of jihadist militants back to Afghanistan with their families and ** under the resettlement program. And the Afghan Taliban are not opposed to the resettlement of this part of the population. These militants settled in the northern regions of Afghanistan, near the border with the countries of Central Asia, that is, the CIS.
The third purpose is to obtain material support from the international community. Pakistan wants help from China, the West and the rich countries of the Middle East. Pakistan can say that it does not have the money to house them. If help is available, the expulsion of Pashtuns in Afghanistan could be stopped.
Afghans in the Pakistani city of Karachi are preparing to leave.
2 The expansionist tendencies of jihadists are evident.
Q: In any case, even with the moratorium on deportations, tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Afghan Pashtuns have already been deported to Afghanistan. The Taliban themselves admit that there is a problem of total unemployment in Afghanistan, so is there a possibility of a crisis in Afghanistan as a result?And how will this crisis affect the countries of Central Asia, Iran and even the South Caucasus?
A: Today, poverty and radicalism are resurgence in Afghanistan. The Taliban are building their own political system, the essence of which is that it is not the Taliban that should do something for Afghanistan, but that Afghanistan, the Afghan people, should help the Taliban.
Afghanistan survives on handouts from the international community, but at the same time, nearly 40 percent of its budget is spent on financing Taliban security forces and training future jihadists.
Another major item of expenditure is military religious schools. It is estimated that as many as 400,000 young people are studying there. What will happen to these students after graduation?
It can be said that they are trained to accomplish other tasks, not religious activities. It is clear that Afghanistan is cultivating reserves for jihadist groups.
Poverty, the large number of young people (the average age of the Afghan population is less than 30 years old) and the strong influence of Islamist radicalism are accelerating this process.
The current Afghanistan is arguably the most serious problem in the region. The actions of the Taliban undoubtedly show that the regime is preparing for a big war.
Q: With whom to go to war?
A: The focus of jihadists' expansion is obvious, starting with a war with Pakistan, that is, supporting the Pakistani Taliban. They would also march into Central Asia, posing a threat to the South Caucasus and Russia.
The Taliban are already trying to recruit volunteers to fight in the war against Israel in Gaza. No one has offered funding yet, and they are not ready to go to war for free. But if funders emerge in the future, there will be large numbers of people willing to fight in Gaza, Iran, the South Caucasus or Russia.
Afghanistan is still a ticking time bomb and will ** anyway. I believe that the countries of Central Asia, Pakistan, China, Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan should and are already preparing.
By the way, the Afghan branch of the terrorist organization "Islamic State" is of great interest in the Caucasus.