Let's talk about the idea of "prudent war" and "decisive war".
First decide, who is willing, or has the intention of going to war with China?
I opened a list to see who came out on top, who was the "second" and "third", and whether there was anyone who took advantage of the fire to rob.
The United States, Japan have this "intention", who else is there?The Philippines and South Korea can't be counted, if such countries want to go to war with China, in addition to looking for death, it is somewhat disgusting. India has this ambition, and if it can defeat the PLA, India will be among the "top three in the world." The question is, is it a monster or a partner with a third country?
Let's start with the United States. To start a war with China, it is necessary to talk about the scale, whether it is controllable, or whether it is a joyful fight. Controllable means confined the war to "localities," and each side will let go of their hands and feet, and each other will not upgrade the scale, and in a certain sea area, the strength of the navy and air force and the power of missiles will be violated.
That's the end of the world.
Let's not be "pretentious", nor do we underestimate the strength of the US military, assuming that China and the United States face off in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, both sides maintain a "tacit understanding" and not attack each other's military ports, airports and land, that is, it is simply ** against **, fighter against fighter plane, of course, it is also allowed to use missiles to assist the attack.
In this way, the battle loss ratio is not biased, assuming that it is all 1 to 1, at China's doorstep, China has lost the same number of warships and fighters as the US military, and also consumed some missiles, it is not an exaggeration to say that China still has the patience to fight, and under the same circumstances, does the United States have this patience?The battle loss ratio is 1 to 1.
There has never been a war in the short history of the United States. But in China's 5,000-year history, the war against "national reunification" and sovereignty has always embodied four words - indomitable.
This is a clear result for both China and the United States, one-on-one heads-up, China will not go to Hawaii to find bad luck with the United States, China has always focused on "defense" and has never had the idea of "competing for hegemony" with anyone. But the United States is not, and its "hegemonic" thinking has led to the fact that he has to travel thousands of miles to "come to the door" to exert power. The question is, what should we do if we go head-to-head with China and can't win China in a hurry?
Two endings. Either look for a "** person" to stand up for the United States, and the United States is "crowdfunding" behind the scenes, sending ** ammunition and funds to the "** people". The "Ukraine model" is the "signboard" that the United States is trying to erect in Asia.
Or, play with the mouth. Create trouble for China and arch fire to some countries that have "careful opportunities", such as the Philippines and Japan. Even if you can't establish a "first-class person", it will keep China in the cumbersome of "solving" small troubles, and you can't let China concentrate on development.
It cannot be said that a showdown between the United States and China is impossible, but it is not yet the time for the United States to make up its mind to "not hesitate to fight" with China. When exactly is the "timing" of the United States?Don't look at GDP, don't simply compare the military strength of the two sides, just one scale - if you don't collapse one of China and Russia, the United States is the speed of high-speed rail falling apart.
The United States has no intention of going to war with China in the near future, so what about Japan?
There is an unresolved "feud" between China and Japan, not only the Chinese are obsessed with this, Japan is also unconvinced, this island country that may slide into the trench at any time, his desire for land, resulting in its "militarism" ghost, plus the Japanese army did slaughter and occupy most of China in those years, based on this, many people in Japan still believe that if they have a certain strength of the navy and air force, they most want to have another "Sino-Japanese War."
With the existence of the United States, Japan's attitude toward China is no longer "modest," and the Taiwan issue, which China regards as a "red line," has also intervened in the Diaoyu Islands. Even the Philippines is making trouble at Ren'ai Jiao, and Japan has "intervened" to stir up the situation. What Japan is doing is getting closer and closer to the role of the American "** person".
There is a "degree" in everything, and China is also facing how to "break the situation". The United States slipped its head, and when it came to a critical time, its figure softened, and China was very helpless;To deal with the Philippines, the coast guard is enough, don't believe it, it won't be long before Scarborough Shoal in Ren'ai Jiao is peaceful and calm again. The Philippines can't afford to make big waves.
In what form will this "degree" be embodied in the future between China and Japan?Does China have the idea of "killing chickens and making an example of monkeys"?Because there are always some "small teases" around China that make China very troubled, according to the thinking of the common people, "it is a mule or a horse that comes out to slip away", winning or losing to fight for strength, life and death are in the sky.
This is roughly the case between China and Japan, if you don't fight, you will divide the male and female, and the first war will determine the monarch and the minister!At that time, a considerable number of Chinese gentlemen will sign up to go there as chengguan, indulge the vendors, strictly control the geisha, and specialize in investigating "small movies".
Will there be a hot war between China and India?Sooner or later, but not now, the aftermath of 1962 is still continuing, it's just that Modi, the current head of India, is a bit of Nehru's "cow goose eye" style, looking at himself as "tall" and others as "short". However, this is not a problem, to correct the "cow's goose eye", China has a "secret recipe".
Are there any other "bad neighbors"?Yes, but it's all a live chess game of "seeing the moves", and there is no dead game. In order to safeguard its own interests, China really needs to make an example of "killing chickens and making an example of monkeys", I analyze it like this
The Philippines is a "chicken", helpless and too weak, embarrassed to use it to "scare monkeys", but it can acquiesce to the coast guard or "fishermen" to do it, sink the ship, kill and injure dozens of them, and then drag away the beached and broken boat in one go.
Then draw a red line, dare to cross it, arrest a batch, and sentence a fine;Still listening?Sink on the spot!
In the Taiwan Strait, we will "create" an opportunity for the unconvinced Japan to "enter the circle" and vigorously and resolutely carry out a "surgical scalpel" action on it, and the "collision" will be sinkedIf you start a fire, then you will not be soft, a few will count as a few, and all of them will be "wiped out".
Does Japan dare to cut off the shipping route of the Strait of Malacca, or does it dare to fight the PLA to the death?
You come and go in the international game, sometimes it's like this, if you are strong, he will be weak, and if you are soft, he will be hard. Japan and the Philippines and other vassals of the United States, if they do not want to become pawns in the game of great powers, and do not want to be the "best people" of the United States against China, they absolutely need a wise leader, otherwise, who will become the "chicken" in the process of China's development, and under certain circumstances, China does not care about slaughtering chickens.