Recently, there has been an increase in export data for November, which is encouraging. However, why is there such an increase all of a sudden?world economyIs the situation really getting better?Is this growth temporary or sustainable?Let's take a look at the data. The data shows that in dollar terms, China's exports in November increased by 05%, an increase of 1. year-on-year in RMB terms7%, which is the first time in seven consecutive months that the situation has turned from negative to positive. In addition, our export figures for many countries have improved, especially to the United States, which has increased by 735%, Brazil increased by 1665%, India increased by 58%, Canada increased by 126%, Indonesia increased by 57%。At the same time, China's exports to ASEAN fell by 5% year-on-year in November96%。Another noteworthy data is that the import and export of private enterprises increased by 6 in the first 11 months1%, indicating that the production of private enterprises is accelerating the recovery. So why did there be a sudden increase in exports in November?Why did the U.S. grow faster than expected, while ASEAN declined?Next, I will break down these issues in detail.
Analysis of the reasons for the growth of exports in the month
First of all, let's be clear, the growth in exports in November does not meanworld economyIt has changed for the better or the global situation has stabilized, because there is no conclusive data to prove itworld economyHealth has been restored, and unrest persists around the globe. So why did exports suddenly grow in November?There are two important reasons for this. First of all, it was held in OctoberThe Belt and Road InitiativeThe summit was an unprecedented event, with hundreds of cooperation agreements signed and nearly 300 corporate representatives lined up to sign contracts. Subsequently, in November, centralized batch shipments began, and this effect was immediately apparent. Second, we successfully brokered in September that the United States lifted the levy on hundreds of Chinese goods in two batchesTariffsOr extendedTariffsExemption Period. Many of these goods are:Christmassupplies, such as:Christmas treeson the lamp. Due toChristmasIt's coming, and the United States canceledTariffs, in order to reduce **, so that the American people buy goods. We noticed that in mid-November, some American bloggers mentioned that they were made in ChinaChristmas treesIt is already on the shelves of large supermarkets in the United States. Therefore, we can infer that the United States massively lifted the levy in NovemberTariffs, especially for:ChristmasThe cancellation of goods was an important reason for the growth of exports in November. This also shows from one side that China's goods are of high quality and low price, and they are deeply loved by the American people, and the impact of the war on the people is not good.
2. Analysis of the reasons for the decline in ASEAN's exports
However, compared to the growth of exports from the United States, China's exports to ASEAN fell by 5 percent year-on-year in November96%。This is the opposite of last year. In November of last year, we had a review ofEuropean and American countriesexports to ASEAN fell sharply, while exports to ASEAN increased by 518%。This is because at that time, ASEAN countries were inertial hoarding, and they were undertaking our processing and production in large quantitiesRe-exports**。In November of this year, the opposite was true, and in the previous months we wereEuropean and American countriesThe decline in exports was more severe, while exports from ASEAN countries contracted. Therefore, the decline in ASEAN exports has a lot to do with last year's base.
Ongoing analysis of export growth in the month
So, the more important question we will next analyze is whether the export growth in November was temporary or sustainableIn fact, at present, our global exports can be divided into two markets, one is:The Belt and Road Initiative, the BRICS and the Organization of the South, and the second is Europe and the United StatesDeveloped countries, which also includes Japan and South Korea. The Belt and Road InitiativeThe bulk shipments brought by the summit will last for at least 3 or even 6 months. At the same time, we are also increasing investment to drive export growth in this market, so the export growth of this part of the market in the future is predictable. However, for Europe and the United StatesDeveloped countriesThe market situation is not so rosy. Recession, inflation andPurchasing powerThe impact of the decline will persist for some time, and it will also be affected by the so-called "de-risking". Therefore, we are interested in:European and American countriesThe export outlook is not promising.
Of course, the U.S. ** representative office has said that it will re-examine the Chinese commodity catalogue and strive to eliminate the high price of most commodities by the end of the yearTariffs。If this can be achieved, the re-entry of Chinese goods into the U.S. market will be inevitable. MiscellaneousEuropean and American countriesIt is also expected to follow suit, at least to resume large imports of ordinary Chinese goods. Therefore, it can be expected that the recovery of exports in the European and American markets is also possible, after all, our strength as the world's factory is still very strong. Therefore, the export growth in November is not a typical figure, and its sustainability will depend on itInternational Economyenvironment and what we are withEuropean and American countriesThe degree of cooperation.
4. Summary
Overall, the sudden increase in exports in November was notworld economyNor does it mean that the global situation has stabilized. The reasons for the growth in exports can be attributed to:The Belt and Road InitiativeThe summit and the United States canceledTariffsimpact. However, it remains to be seen how sustainable it isInternational Economyenvironment and withEuropean and American countriesThe degree of cooperation. Therefore, in 2024, the export situation is still complex, and it is likely to remain stable or grow slightly in the first half of the year, and growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.