At present, the upward trend of China's industrial economy is continuing to consolidate. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 27th further confirmed this judgment: in November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 29% year-on-year5%, the growth rate was 26 faster than in October8 percentage points, this indicator has achieved positive growth for four consecutive months.
In November, why did the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size rise strongly, hitting a new high in the year?What is the trend of the profit data of industrial enterprises in the later stage?Journalists interviewed experts on relevant issues.
Zheng Houcheng, chief macroeconomist of Yingda ** company, believes that the factors supporting the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in November are mainly the following aspects:
First, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year in November6%, the growth rate is 2 percent higher than that in October0 percentage points, significantly better than expected. This is good for the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in November.
Second, the company's revenue has accelerated its improvement. In November, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year1%, the growth rate is 3 percent faster than that in October6 percentage points, rebounding for 5 consecutive months, effectively driving the growth of corporate profits.
Third, the profit margin of enterprises has increased significantly. In November, the profit margin of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 715%, an increase of 1 year-on-year29 percentage points, a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months.
Fourth, the base of the same period last year was low. In November 2022, the profits of industrial enterprises fell by 85%, which is conducive to the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in November this year.
In addition, Yu Weining, a statistician from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that in November, investment income was relatively concentrated in the accounts, which played a supporting role in the recovery of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size.
At the same time, the decline of global bulk commodities and the reduction of the cost of industrial enterprises may also be an important factor influencing the improvement of the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size. Fan Lei, chief macro analyst of the League of Nations, said.
Statistics show that in November, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 8392 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 062 yuan, a year-on-year decrease for 5 consecutive months.
It should also be noted that the sustained recovery of the efficiency of industrial enterprises is consistent with the overall upward trend of the macro economy, which is largely due to the continuous efforts of various policies to stabilize growth, especially those to support the recovery of the real economy. * Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center, believes.
Accelerate the resolution of the problem of arrears of enterprise accounts;Strictly regulate the penalties and fines to prevent the effect of various preferential policies from being weakened or offsetIn the first 10 months, the country added 1,660.7 billion yuan in tax and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferralsReasonable adjustment of loan interest rates to help reduce the financing costs and financial expenses ...... enterprisesSince the second half of this year, the "combination punch" of bail-out policies for enterprises has made concerted efforts to provide strong support for the restoration of the profitability of industrial enterprises.
Judging from the cumulative data, from January to November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale fell by 4 year-on-year4%, the decline was 3 percent narrower than that from January to October4 percentage points, continuing the trend of narrowing month by month since March, and the profit decline narrowed to less than 5% for the first time this year.
From the industry level, from January to November, among the 41 major industrial industries, 24 industries had a year-on-year increase in profits, with a profit growth of 585%, an increase of 14 from January to October6 percentage points.
From the perspective of different types of enterprises, from January to November, the total profit of private enterprises was 20023100 million yuan, the year-on-year growth rate turned positive, reaching 16%, which further sends a positive signal to the market.
Overall, the profits of industrial enterprises from January to November showed an accelerated recovery trend. Yu Weining said.
The data on the benefits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the first 11 months also suggest that on the one hand, we must have confidence in the comprehensive effect of various policiesOn the other hand, we should also focus on the implementation of the deployment of the first economic work conference and focus on expanding domestic demand in a more targeted manner. Zhang Liqun said.
In the next stage, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the spirit of the first economic work conference, focus on expanding domestic demand, stimulate the vitality of various business entities, vigorously promote new industrialization, continuously enhance endogenous power, continue to consolidate the foundation for industrial economic recovery, and further promote the recovery of the industrial economy. Yu Weining thinks.
Judging from the profit trend of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the later period, "because the global economy does not support commodities **obviously**, and the domestic economy gradually digests the impact of the real estate downturn, demand is expected to gradually improve, and we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size is expected to continue to rebound moderately." Fan Lei said.
Liao Bo, a young researcher at the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, predicts that in 2024, with the expansion of the policy of steady growth in the manufacturing industry, coupled with the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages, the demand for industrial products will increase or drive the recovery of PPI, as well as the upward momentum of the manufacturing industry's inventory replenishment cycle, the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size will most likely turn positive.
*: Xinhua Finance.