[Summary of Views].
The three major supporting forces of key products, new formats and circles of friends support the continuous recovery of China's foreign trade.
The Economic Work Conference will deliver two new signals for the development of China's foreign trade next year: on the one hand, pay more attention to the cultivation of new momentum and new forms of foreign trade;On the other hand, more attention should be paid to improving the comprehensive competitiveness of foreign trade.
On the whole, the characteristics of China's stable export scale and sustainable structure have not changed, and China's leading position in the global industrial chain is irreplaceable.
China has become synonymous with the world's best partner and investment destination, and the next "China" is still China.
Next year marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and a crucial year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Recently, the first economic work conference deployed nine key tasks, and "expanding high-level opening up" was among them, emphasizing "accelerating the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade and consolidating the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment".
A few days ago, Jin Ruiting, director and researcher of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the characteristics of China's stable export scale and sustainable structure have not changed, and China's dominant position in the global industrial chain is irreplaceable, and the fact that "China is the source of power and the anchor of stability for global economic growth" will not change.
Three major supporting forces support the continuous recovery of China's foreign trade
The General Administration of Customs recently released data showing that in the first 11 months of this year, China's total import and export value was 3796 trillion yuan, the same as the same period last year. Entering the fourth quarter, the positive factors for the development of China's foreign trade continued to increase, with imports and exports increasing year-on-year for two consecutive months, and the development trend of stability and improvement continued to consolidate.
Jin Ruiting said that there are three major supporting forces to support the continuous recovery of China's foreign trade:
First, key product support. Driven by industrial transformation and upgrading, many products withstood the pressure of weakening external demand, and their export performance was outstanding. In the first 11 months, China exported 12 mechanical and electrical products66 trillion yuan. Among them, the export performance of automobiles and ships was particularly eye-catching, with year-on-year growth5%。The "new three" products represented by electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells have shown a strong growth momentum in China's foreign trade exports, bringing new vitality to the development of China's manufacturing industry and foreign trade.
The second is the support of new business formats. As a representative of China's international new business format, cross-border e-commerce has developed rapidly, has a large volume and sufficient stamina in recent years, and has gradually transformed from a "new form of foreign trade" to a "new normal of foreign trade". In the first three quarters, China's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume reached 17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%, accounting for 5% of the import and export proportion of the same thing5%, creating favorable conditions for the quality and expansion of China's foreign trade. With the rapid development of digital **, new business formats represented by cross-border e-commerce will usher in greater development opportunities.
The third is the support of the circle of friends. Under the superposition of high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road", the implementation of the promotion strategy of free pilot zones, and the expansion of the network of high-standard free zones facing the world, China's foreign trade "circle of friends" is also expanding. In the first 11 months, the total value of China's imports and exports to the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative was 1765 trillion yuan, an increase of 26%；Of these, export 970 trillion yuan, an increase of 69%。Especially as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) enters a new stage of full implementation, the best exchanges with RCEP member countries will also become an important guarantee for China's foreign trade.
New signals for the development of foreign trade continue to be released
It is an important part of China's open economy and an important driving force for the development of the national economy, and a key hub for smooth domestic and international dual circulation, which plays an important supporting role in stabilizing expectations, growth and employment.
In the first 11 months of this year, China's foreign trade rose to the challenge, with a scale of nearly 38 trillion yuan, and the scale reached 5$4 trillion. Jin Ruiting said that this achievement was made in the context of a severe and complex international environment and insufficient domestic effective demand, and it was not easy to come by.
* The Economic Work Conference mentioned that "accelerate the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade, consolidate the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment" and "expand cross-border e-commerce exports".
In Jin Ruiting's view, the new signals for the development of foreign trade are mainly reflected in the following two aspects: on the one hand, more attention will be paid to the cultivation of new momentum and new forms of foreign trade. In recent years, the "new three" represented by electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells have gradually become a new driving force for China's foreign trade. In the first three quarters of this year, the total export of China's "new three" products was nearly 800 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 40%, accounting for 4% of China's exports5%。"In the new year, we will continue to increase the cultivation of new drivers and new forms of foreign trade, so that they can further play a more active role in consolidating the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment. ”
On the other hand, more attention will be paid to improving the comprehensive competitiveness of China's foreign trade. The Economic Work Conference mentioned the need to "expand the export of intermediate goods, services, and digital". Jin Ruiting believes that in the current international environment, strong "intermediate goods, services, and digital" are an important embodiment of a country's comprehensive competitiveness in foreign trade.
Specifically, intermediate goods are deeply embedded in the global value chain, and "expanding intermediate goods" releases a clear signal that China will further consolidate and strengthen the cooperation of the international industrial chainThe added value of China's service industry accounts for more than 55% of GDP, and the development space of service is hugeDigital ** is one of the three pillars of China's leading power, and "expanding digital" means that China will actively connect with international high-standard digital ** rules, focus on deepening reform and innovation in three key areas such as cross-border data flow, digital technology application, and data openness and sharing, and digital ** will usher in the "** era".
Six aspects to achieve China's foreign trade to promote stability and improve quality
From the perspective of scale improvement, the trend of foreign trade stability and improvement has been further consolidated. From the perspective of structural optimization, the proportion of China's exports of high value-added products has been rising. Jin Ruiting said that since the beginning of this year, with the continuous promotion of the strategy of expanding domestic demand and the introduction of a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, China's foreign trade has withstood the pressure of multiple unexpected factors at home and abroad, and has achieved new results in stabilizing the scale and optimizing the structure, showing the strong resilience and vitality of the super-large-scale market.
In the next step, China will base itself on its advantages, accelerate the formation of policy synergy, and make every effort to achieve stability and quality improvement of foreign trade. Jin Ruiting said that specifically, we can focus on the following six aspects: First, accelerate the implementation of the detailed and stable foreign trade policy. Give full play to the comprehensive effect of stabilizing foreign trade policies, and implement relevant supporting policies around the specific issues that foreign trade enterprises are concerned about.
The second is to effectively reduce the cost of export-oriented enterprises. On the basis of accelerating the implementation of various policies such as tax and fee reductions, we will strengthen the guarantee of employment, energy use, and logistics.
The third is to actively promote the development of new forms of foreign trade. Integrate the forces of all parties to help cross-border e-commerce enterprises explore overseas markets. Encourage overseas warehouse enterprises to optimize resource allocation and support their transformation to digitalization and intelligence. Promote the integrated development of market procurement**, cross-border e-commerce and foreign trade comprehensive services.
Fourth, strengthen and stabilize the industrial foundation of foreign trade. Highlight regional characteristics, improve the quality of export products and services, and create a number of high-level open platforms. Expand the export of general ** and high value-added commodities, and strengthen the construction of brand, quality and channels.
Fifth, we should take the initiative to expand imports. We will give full play to the advantages of a super-large-scale market and strong production capacity, increase the import of high-quality products from various countries, and broaden the import channels of advanced technology, important equipment, key components and important energy resources. Accelerate the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade by strengthening the convergence and integration of rules and systems and promoting the docking of market channels.
Sixth, we should work closely with global partners. We will implement the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with high quality, gradually expand the global network of high-standard free zones, and actively promote accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA). In the new golden decade, we will work hard and make long-term efforts to solidly promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Jin Ruiting also said that as the world's second largest economy, the largest industrial country, and the largest goods country, China has a population of more than 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP of more than 1With a middle-income group of more than 400 million people of 20,000 US dollars, it has the world's most complete industrial system and the largest potential domestic demand market. China has become synonymous with the world's best partner and investment destination, and the next "China" is still China.