In recent years, the downward trend of the property market has taken shape, mainly because China's commercial housing has indeed reached the point of serious surplus, coupled with the impact of China's aging, young people not marrying, and declining birthrate, so that the property market has completely lost its momentum. You will find that the property market that used to be saved casually cannot be revitalized even if the policy releases water, which is enough to show that the property market is completely different from the past.
In the past, China's property market had sufficient profits, attracting a large number of developers to participate in it. However, as the tide of the property market fades, even "cosmic" real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden have problems, and those developers who do not have the strength will naturally be gradually eliminated by the market. In this regard, economist Ren Zeping mentioned in the "Top Ten Chinese Economic Enterprises in 2023" that 90% of real estate companies will disappear in the future, which is probably not alarmist.
I believe many people have noticed that there has been a recent announcement that a new round of "housing reform" in China is coming, which mainly refers to the "Guiding Opinions on Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing" adopted by the National Standing Committee. After the adoption of the opinion, China plans to carry out pilot affordable housing in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million in the next five years, providing 6 million units of affordable housing. This means that many families who originally wanted to buy a house may choose to give up the home purchase plan and apply for affordable housing. At that time, the property market will enter a state of polarization, that is, the large commercial housing will remain high, while the small apartment may depreciate.
The professor believes that in the future, housing will be very tight, which will lead to very high pressure on housing prices. At present, compared with the peak period of 2021, the area of domestic real estate under construction has been halved, and the area of new construction in the country has decreased by two-thirds. The professor suggested that the government adopt a series of measures to restore the willingness of developers to acquire land and develop to solve the problem of "insufficient supply and demand" in the real estate market in the future.
However, this conclusion was opposed by a large number of netizens. They think that the professor's view is too one-sided, and simply deduces from the area of housing under construction and the area under construction in the country that there is a shortage of commercial housing in the future. In fact, netizens believe that we should consider the current total amount of commercial housing in China and the vacancy and sale of commercial housing. According to the data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are now about 600 million houses in China, and even if only 400 million of them are residential, it is enough for 2 billion people to live. This means that there are a large number of vacant houses in China, especially in some third- and fourth-tier cities, and the housing vacancy rate is up to more than 30%.
In addition, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of October, the area of commercial housing for sale was 648.35 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 181%。These houses for sale take almost tens of millions of people to be able to digest. Based on these data, netizens believe that whether the supply and demand of houses in the future are sufficient cannot be judged only from the area under construction and the area under construction.
1.The downward trend of the property market cannot be reversed** Due to the surplus of commercial housing in China, coupled with the influence of factors such as aging, young people not getting married and declining birthrate, the property market has lost its momentum. It is also difficult to reverse the downward trend of the property market. Compared with the past, today's property market has undergone fundamental changes.
2.Property developers ushered in a major reshuffle: In the past, the lucrative property market attracted a large number of developers to the market. However, with the downturn in the property market, developers who are not strong are gradually eliminated. Economist Ren Zeping even **, 90% of real estate companies will disappear in the future.
3."Polarization" in the commercial housing market: The "Guiding Opinions on Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing" recently adopted by the National Standing Committee means that China plans to carry out pilot affordable housing in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million in the next five years, providing 6 million units of affordable housing. This makes many families who want to buy a house may turn to apply for affordable housing, resulting in a polarization of the property market, with large commercial housing** still high, while small houses may depreciate.
From my personal point of view, the property market will still face challenges in the future, and the pressure will still exist. Although there are some factors that restrict the growth of the property market, such as the surplus of commercial housing and demographic changes, policies such as the affordable housing pilot will also change the pattern of market supply and demand. The construction of affordable housing will provide more choices and reduce the demand for housing purchases, which may have a certain inhibitory effect on small commercial housing. At the same time, the reshuffle of the property market will further strengthen the competition of real estate enterprises and contribute to the development and integration of the industry.
However, with the advancement of urbanization in China, the urban population will continue to increase, and the support for housing demand still exists. Especially in first- and second-tier cities, the supply is still insufficient, and the pressure on the first tier is greater. In addition, factors such as economic development and the improvement of people's living standards will also promote the development of the real estate market. Therefore, in the next 5 years, the property market may still have a trend.
In general, there is still some uncertainty about the future direction of the property market. Although there is a general trend of downward trend in the property market and the reality of a surplus of real estate, the market will also be affected by policy and economic factors. Therefore, for home buyers, they should make an informed choice based on their own financial ability and needs, while paying close attention to the dynamic changes in the property market.