Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that IDC data shows that in 2023, the annual shipment of China's AR market is expected to be 240,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1339%。Among them, the all-in-one AR shipment is expected to be 350,000 units, split AR (most of the current products need to be connected to smartphones) shipments are expected to be 2050,000 units. In 2024, AR shipments are expected to continue to grow rapidly, with a growth rate of 1010%。Split AR will still be the mainstream of the AR category, but it is worth noting that with the release of Qualcomm AR special chips and the progress of optical waveguide technology, mainstream manufacturers will successively release or iterate integrated AR glasses, and it is expected to ship 60,000 units in 2024, an increase of 685%。
In 2024, the development trend of AI+AR will help glasses products achieve better NLP interaction and display screen presentation. High-speed text processing, accurate intelligent Q&A dialogue, accurate semantic understanding, and efficient instruction recognition will all shine in real-time translation, navigation, photography, life assistant and other types of applications. AR hardware manufacturers will parallel self-developed + cooperation mode, and cooperation hardware with large model manufacturers will also be launched one after another, guiding user experience, acceptance, and reliance on more efficient and convenient new productivity tools.
The M2+R1 dual-chip design adopted by Apple Vision Pro has made the importance of image processing chips widely concerned. In terms of visual experience and spatial experience, the image processing chip provides real-time processing of sensory inputs, reduces the delay of users in perceiving the surrounding environment, and facilitates the seamless connection between virtual and real. The layout of domestic chip manufacturers in this field is also deepening.
In 2024, VR equipment will make great strides to realize the display upgrade from LCD screen to Micro-OLED screen, and AR glasses will also carry out the product transition from Birdbath solution to optical waveguide solution in terms of optical solution, and the visual experience will be greatly improved. In addition to vision, in the sound generating unit, the design of AR glasses directional speakers in directional propagation, sound quality, and privacy will also become the key point of competition for manufacturers. Technologies such as gas sensors, VR interactive gloves, and handle linear motors will continue to be optimized, with visual experience as the core, and the olfactory, touch, and auditory sensory experience will be upgraded in an all-round way.
The requirements of differentiated scenarios determine that AR VR devices will coexist in multiple interaction modes in the future. In scenarios such as entertainment and audio, fitness and sports, the handle will play an important roleSmart rings and rings can help users better control AR glasses with voiceIn the productivity scenario application of mixed reality headsets, gesture interaction will be more efficient and concise. A variety of interaction methods will complement each other and develop together.
In the past, AR VR devices were mainly connected to external terminals through PCs and mobile phones, and there were still many requirements and restrictions on the CPU and GPU configuration of PCs and mobile phone brands. With the continuous improvement of connection adapters and application adaptability, tablets, console game consoles (Switch, PS, Xbox, etc.), and smart cars will be better connected to AR VR devices, and AR VR devices will be more smoothly integrated into the smart terminal ecosystem and play a role in travel, productivity, and entertainment scenarios.
In 2024, with the launch of Apple Vision Pro, the domestic ** chain will accelerate its entry, and the cost of display screens will begin to decline. Manufacturers' cost pressures are starting to improve, making it easier to achieve hardware profitability in the post-subsidy era. From the perspective of the first-class chain layout, the proportion of domestic production will continue to increase in many links such as machine assembly, image chips, display screens, speakers, and batteries.
From the perspective of the layout of the channel system, more and more manufacturers have begun to cooperate with the general generation, and the first retail stores have increased cost investment and layout. From the perspective of marketing delivery, digital enthusiasts are still the key target group of manufacturers' advertising. In terms of content layout, manufacturers' content applications adopt the parallel route of introduction + self-development to compete. From the perspective of the cost of the first chain, traditional hardware manufacturers such as mobile phones have more advantages. At present, the competition of AR VR terminal manufacturers has changed from a single hardware product competition to a multi-dimensional competition of sales channels, marketing strategies, content layout, and chain costs.
In the first three quarters of 2023, PICO's shipment share in China's VR market reached 585%, the first in the first three quarters;In the AR market shipments, Xreal, Thunderbird, and Rokid accounted for more than 70% of the shipments, and the rankings changed quarterly. It is worth noting that this year is also a difficult year for China's AR VR manufacturers, and several leading manufacturers have faced many problems such as layoffs, structural adjustments, difficulties in the capital chain and even withdrawal from the market. In 2024, leading overseas manufacturers are expected to enter the Chinese market, Apple's new products are entering the market strongly, and mobile phone manufacturers are poised to launch new AR glasses, and the competition pattern of manufacturers in the Chinese market is full of variables.
In recent years, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other units have issued many documents such as the action plan for the integrated development of virtual reality and industry applications, promoting the unification of industry standards from various aspects such as basic generalization, content production, content division, testing and evaluation, etc. Compatibility difficulties, format differences, and high costs are still problems that the whole industry needs to solve together. In 2024, the unification of domestic virtual reality industry standards will continue to accelerate.