At the beginning of 2023, Richard, a well-known American diplomatic expert. Haas has formulated a truce plan for Ukraine for Biden, and the Russian-Ukrainian war cannot be fought indefinitely, and the longer it drags on, the more detrimental it will be to the United States.
For this reason, on behalf of the United States, Richard Haas secretly met with Russian Foreign Minister "Lavrov".
This is the first informal contact between the United States and Russia since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, showing that the United States wants to end the war by next year.
According to Haas's plan for Biden, Russia and Ukraine should move from the battlefield to the negotiating table by this time next year.
If you sit at the negotiating table next year, the chips at the table will be crucial, and whoever has more chips will have the advantage.
And the "chips" are not for nothing, they are played.
In Haas's strategy, in 2023, Ukraine will fight, fight, and make a big ** that will attract the attention of the world.
The more successful Ukraine is, the greater the bargaining chips for negotiations next year.
Therefore, the core of "peace talks" lies in **.
However, by the end of 2023, when the first heavy snow fell on Ukraine, we didn't see any ** results, and even directly said that Ukraine's big ** failed, and the failure was ugly.
There are many reasons for Ukraine's defeat, such as the fact that the time point has been delayed again and again, two months later than the estimated time, and the "spring offensive" has been stubbornly dragged into a "summer offensive".
For example, "the generals are not in harmony", the Ukrainian commander-in-chief "Zaluzhny" and **Zelensky are in deep contradictions, and the ideas and directions of the two sides are different.
Zelensky leans towards NATO's plans, while the Ukrainian commander-in-chief prefers his own.
Eight relevant exercises have been conducted within NATO, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US military, "Milley", believes:
In one battle, as long as Ukraine concentrates and uses the ** of Western aid, it can take Zaporozhye and rush to the Sea of Azov.
NATO wants to attack "Zaporozhye" to the south, and after taking Zaporozhye, it will be able to cut off the important supply lines of Crimea, so as to prepare for the capture of Crimea.
And the plan of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army is to fight to the east, fight **Mut, and after controlling the important town **Muth, he will recapture Donetsk and Luhansk.
One wants to fight to the south, the other wants to fight to the east, and the serious differences between the commander-in-chief of NATO and the Ukrainian army highlight the difference in positions.
Why does the West want the Ukrainian army to fight south?The core reason is in Haas's plan for Biden, and there should be a truce next year.
And before the armistice, it is necessary to get the maximum chips on the battlefield.
Crimea is the biggest chip that can be obtained the fastest.
NATO's plan is to fight in the south after all its work.
The first step was laid, Zaporozhye.
The second step is to lay down, Tokmak.
The third step was laid, Berdyansk.
Take control of the northern shore of the Sea of Azov, so that the land supply lines of the Russian army to the Crimea will be completely cut off.
The Crimean Peninsula can only rely on the Kerch Bridge on the border with Russia for supplies, and the "Kerch Bridge" is fragile and has been attacked by Ukrainian missiles many times.
When the Kerch Bridge was bombed and the land supply to the north was cut off, the Russian army could only risk sending ships from the Sea of Azov to replenish the supply, which was no less dangerous and the supply speed was far less than that of the land transport line.
Therefore, NATO's ** plan is to fight south, completely cut off the supply of Crimea, make Crimea an isolated island, and then the Ukrainian army will move south from Kherson to recapture Crimea.
In 2014, Crimea came under Russian control, a landmark place where Ukraine recaptured Crimea as a heavyweight bargaining chip at the negotiating table.
It is precisely because the US plan is to negotiate next year that NATO is so obsessed with "going south", which is the biggest bargaining chip that may be won in the shortest possible time.
To put it bluntly, going south ** is the most in the interests of the United States.
But from the point of view of the interests of Ukraine, it is very different.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army wants to fight to the east, seize the strategic place of "**mut", and then hit Donetsk and Luhansk.
Because the goal of the Ukrainian army is to recapture all the territories occupied by Russia, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, etc.
The problem is that this is not a goal that can be achieved in the short term.
Donetsk and Luhansk are directly bordering Russia, and the Russian army's continuous supply materials can be directly transported from the Russian mainland.
It is much easier for the Russian army to supply Donetsk and Luhansk than it is to supply Crimea, so if you attack the east, it will easily become a protracted war of attrition.
This is the core difference between the two sides, the United States wants to attack south, take Crimea, and negotiate an armistice next year.
The Ukrainian army wants to advance eastward and regain all the lost territory, no matter how much cost and time it takes.
Zelensky is on the side of the United States, exacerbating the "discord among the generals" in Ukraine
It happened that in June, the head of Wagner, "Prigozhin", rebelled and led his troops to Moscow, although the rebellion was halfway admitted and failed, but Wagner's rebellion gave the Ukrainian army great confidence.
The Ukrainian army mobilized forces that were supposed to attack south, including elite ** and armored vehicles aided by NATO, and stormed ** Mutt.
At the beginning of September, Ukraine announced the recapture of **mut, but it stopped there, and it was difficult for the Ukrainian army to continue to advance eastward, because the Russian army's supply to the east of Ukraine was too easy.
By this point, Ukraine's big ** has essentially failed.
The generals were not in harmony, and the difference in interests was huge, which led to another "southern attack" and "eastward advance", and then Zaporozhye and **Muth.
The result of the division of troops is that nothing can be gained, a big **, and no useful chips have been obtained.
And after this ** defeat, Ukraine will face a cruel reality: next year the West will never again be as generous as this year.
Now Congress has blocked all aid bills for Ukraine, especially the House Republican leader replaced by the right-wing "Mike." Johnson".
Mike. Johnson, a staunch Trump supporter, has vowed not to let any more dime go to Ukraine and that it's time for the war to stop.
In response, Biden pleaded with Congress to pass the aid bill, and Biden said that if the budget is not passed by the end of the year, Ukraine's funds and ** will run out.
According to the Associated Press, as of December, 97% of the aid budget for Ukraine has been used, and a new budget must be passed immediately, otherwise Ukraine will run out of ammunition and food.
The new budget that was not adopted totalled $110.5 billion, including:
29.3 billion, to Ukraine.
14 billion, to Israel.
2 billion, to the Indo-Pacific region.
8.5 billion to improve border security.
43.6 billion to improve the productivity of the United States.
Other. This package has been blocked, and the Republican Party is simply not willing to spend so much money on other countries.
Especially in Ukraine, when this year's big ** failed, Ukraine became more and more a black hole of dissatisfaction, and the negative effect on the United States became greater and greater.
If you continue to throw a lot of money into it, it will be a loss-making business.
So now many international ** are worried that Ukraine will be the next Afghanistan.
In August 2021, the United States announced a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was quick and urgent, which made the world dumbfounded and made the United States infamous for throwing away the mess at its fingertips.
Now that Ukraine is becoming more and more of a "mess", will the United States simply lose Ukraine overnight like it lost Afghanistan?
On December 6, the United States was supposed to hold a bipartisan confidential briefing, and the core of the discussion was how to "aid Ukraine" next year
Originally, Zelensky was also called to participate in this confidential briefing, but just a moment before the meeting, Biden told Ozawa: "Don't come yet, something is wrong".
So Zelensky was excluded from the classified briefing.
What did the two parties talk about at the end of this confidential bipartisan briefing?Is it discussing an exit mechanism for the war in Ukraine?
Or blatantly exclude the "countries concerned", which is to prepare to sell Ukraine.
How to sell Ukraine decently has become a question that needs to be discussed repeatedly.
Zelensky was very uneasy after being excluded from the confidential meeting, and according to ** report, Ozawa will go to the United States again to meet Biden in person to find out about this matter.
In fact, for Biden, if the war in Ukraine fails, it will be a major shame for him, Biden has already failed in Afghanistan, and if Ukraine loses again, then he will be the "double defeat" of the United States** and even evaluated by later generations as the most failed ** of the United States.
As far as the prestige of the United States is concerned, the hasty withdrawal of aid to Ukraine will hit the confidence of all allies in the United States, and if it can be thrown at Ukraine today, it will be thrown by other countries tomorrow.
And as 2024** approaches, allies are increasingly worried about the "reliability" of the United States, because the main axis of the United States in 2024** is still "America First".
Under the banner of "America First," there is no friend that cannot be abandoned.
We also wish Ozawa the best of luck to meet Biden urgently.
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