Recently, I heard an industry tycoon talk about the economic situation in 2024, and he bluntly said that from the post-80s to the post-95s, the times may be the most bitter generation, and all the costs and bad expectations may be on you. It sounds a bit heavy, but let's break it down in detail.
Expected
First, there is anticipation. For example, the rating of a certain Di was downgraded, which directly affected **. Our A** field seems to have been fighting to hold on to 3,000 points and is already playing its 53rd 3,000-point defense, while India** has quadrupled in three years. This change has taken us from ridicule and understanding to envy of India, and the change in expectations is really thought-provoking.
Let's look at the consumer market. You may have heard of BESTORE, their chairman Yang Yinfen said that the question now is no longer whether it is difficult to live, but whether it can survive. BESTORE, which has always been positioned as a high-end store, also shouted to live, with an average price reduction of 22% for more than 300 products, and playing the low-price card is the main theme in the consumer field this year, which is the judgment of merchants on consumption expectations. And, as 2023 comes to an end and the consumption boom of the post-mask era is receding, 2024 will be a real test.
The job market is similarly grim. Officials expect that the class of 2024 will be as high as 11.79 million college graduates, 210,000 more than this year. Many people leave their jobs either voluntarily or passively, and it takes a long time to find a jobMany highly educated people cannot find the right job, and are unwilling to accept more sinking jobs, resulting in the so-called "frictional employment". Behind this is the adjustment of the economic and industrial structure, as well as the depreciation of academic qualifications. For now, it seems that this trend will continue in 2024.
Cost
Why is it said that the 80s to 95 generation is not at the right time?The answer to this question is a bit complicated. This generation has missed the first 20 years of economic growth, but it has encountered a period of economic transition. Not only economic expectations, but also consumption expectations and employment expectations are shifting. And the three major costs facing this generation – housing, childbirth, and social welfare – are all rising. Many things are not because you don't want to buy or do them, but because the cost is too high.
For example, Shanghai's house-price-to-income ratio is as high as 50 to 1, and the increase in housing prices over the past few years has itself overdrawn the wealth of two generations, and this generation will have to press the next 30 years of income to buy a house.
Liang Jianzhang's "China Fertility Cost Report" shows that the average cost of raising a child aged 0 to 17 in China is 4850,000 yuan, if raised to undergraduate graduation, it will be 6270,000 yuan, if there is a second child, it will be doubled. But if you spend all this money on yourself, that's another way of thinking.
In addition, there are social welfare costs, including pensions, medical insurance may also include lotteries, with the advent of the deep aging social stage, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to exceed 50% in 2025, which is equivalent to 4 people raising an elderly person now, and then a person raising an elderly person. More and more elderly people have to rely on fewer and fewer young people to support them, and all the costs of aging just weigh on this generation.
Finally, how can we reduce this generational cost and expectation difference, so that young people no longer lie flat and restore their confidence?In the long run, reform is the key to solving these problems. Whether it is housing reform, labor distribution and welfare system, or childbirth culture, it needs in-depth thinking and adjustment. In the short term, we need to work hard to get the economy up, which is a top priority.