Is NIO going to take off or is it going to hit the streets?
This is probably the question that everyone has thought about the most at midnight since NIO announced that it had reached a battery swap business cooperation with Changan Automobile, a veteran state-owned enterprise.
And with the further disclosure of a new partner, Geely Holding Group, on November 29, many people who are "black" and insist that "battery swapping is a dead end" can't help but sweat a little.
CR: mint car Uncle Ou).
The scary thing is that it's not over yet, Weilai's wave of "standing partners" is far more than Chang'an and Geely, and then Weilai will shake a new teammate to join the team every few days like opening a blind box. (4 to 5 more partners are expected).
So,
Everyone says that NIO is down, but central and private enterprises are optimistic
Could it be that all car companies are "love brains"?
Sub-heading: Battery Swap Cooperation: NIO's "Antihypertensive Drug"?
It is said that battery swapping is the moat of NIO, why should NIO "sell" the moat?
For NIO, the battery swap system is both a trump card and a shackle. As early as the end of last month, Shen Fei, senior vice president of Weilai, said frankly:"At present, each battery swap station is about 35 36 orders per day, and as long as it can do 50 to 60 orders a day, the battery swap station will be able to break even. ”
Senior car man "Wu Pei" summed it up very well:"If there is not enough frequency of battery swapping, the huge infrastructure investment will be amortized to each tram, which is actually more than worth the loss. This is where NIO has a bit of a hard time replacing the battery on its own. ”
To put it more bluntly, NIO needs more car companies to join its battery swap system in order to reduce the pressure, make up for losses, and even one day achieve a reversal to win profits. The more powerful car companies join the battery swap alliance, the more they can add glory to their brand image, and when consumers and spectators witness NIO's growing team, it will also enhance their confidence in the brand.
Sub-heading: They are car companies, not love brains!
After figuring out what Weilai is trying to do, I can't help but ask: Weilai, a lone wolf in the wilderness, looks like it is about to be cornered, but Changan, Geely and other car companies have become wolves in their peers at this timeAre you crazy or are they crazy?
First of all, engaging in battery swap cooperation is business, not love. Behind such a major decision as joining the battery swap alliance, there must be a comprehensive and rational analysis that the research team wants to be bald. So don't treat Chang'an and Geely car companies as hello kitty, they are steel and iron brain axes.
Let's talk about Chang'an, the big brother of the central enterprise, what can he get from the cooperation with Brother Wei?As a pioneer in the transformation of vehicle electrification, Changan can more easily obtain technology by joining NIO's battery swap alliance, and add more buffs to its own products, so as to have stronger competitiveness.
And Geely Holdings, a private enterprise giant, is not a "Prince Charming" who came to save NIO. For Geely, cooperating with NIO is a business of "I want it, and you just have it".
Like Chang'an, Geely is equally ambitious in its commitment to new energy sources. In the past October, Geely Holding Group's total sales volume was 27780,000 units, up 19% y/y. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 10670,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65%, and the monthly new energy penetration rate reached 38%.
Just last year, Geely and Lifan Technology jointly funded the establishment of Ruilan Automobile, hoping to take a share of the new energy battery swap track. Ruilan Automobile has only been established for about one year, and it has already sat on 7 models, covering three product lines of sedans, SUVs and MPVs, spanning the two market areas of B-end and C-end.
Indeed, Ruilan is not short of products, but there is a lack of battery swap stations!The battery swap station is to Ruilan, just like the battery swap station is to NIO, it's all love and hate in an instant!
Like the battery swap station, which is faster than the speed of burning money, even if Ruilan is backed by Geely, do you think everything will be "fine"?
As early as before, Ruilan Automobile had reduced the average input cost of each battery swap station from about 4 million to about 2 million. But Ming Ruilan said that he wanted to realize the dream of "building 5,000 battery swap stations in 2025"!So even if you keep reducing input costs, can it hide from billions?
Can these billions of Ruilan cars burn?Geely may be burning, but Geely still has a large family to raise, ** to have sufficient resources and then go to the "milk" is not conspicuous Ruilan?
Therefore, as the main "born for battery swapping", Ruilan has built more than 200 battery swap stations so far, which makes more than 50,000 car owners of Ruilan very embarrassed. Obviously, battery replacement is the selling point of Ruilan's mouth, but it seems that charging is the most real dilemma for many Ruilan car owners. (Welcome to leave real feedback in the comment area of Ruilan car owners).
If Ruilan does not have enough battery swap stations to make most of its car owners profitable, is the battery swap mode it advertised an exaggerated publicity?
Let's talk about the cooperation between Geely Group and NIO. Judging from the content of the agreement, both Geely and NIO will approve it"Co-investment, co-construction, sharing, and co-operation".This "community of shared future" model will work together to create two major battery swap standard systems for private cars and commercial vehicles.
So Geely and Weiwei are looking at the right thing, just because they are fighting alone, it is better to report to the group for warmth.
For Geely, it is "cheap and not a bastard". For the new energy market with an increasing penetration rate, the development of battery swapping requires a large and complete infrastructure system, and with the help of NIO's existing battery swap network, Geely and NIO can more easily dominate the battery swap market. In this cold and dark night, of course, there is more hope of "life" than fighting each other.
Sub-heading: Ultra-fast charging vs battery swapping, short-term combat?
The fiercest thing to tear on the Internet is not that NIO is "dead or not", but who is the king in the end of battery swapping and ultra-fast charging?But 51 Jun wants to ask: Do you really think that battery swapping and ultra-fast charging are the relationship between "you have you and me"?
The existence of battery swap stations can absorb more clean energy, and can also help alleviate the pressure of power grid regulation, playing the role of peak shaving and valley filling. However, excessive investment and operation and maintenance costs are obvious disadvantages.
However, it is worth mentioning that NIO, as a pioneer in battery swapping, is very likely to refer to NIO's standards when formulating industry battery swap standards in the future.
Because previously, in order to encourage the development of battery swapping, a special case was issued that "battery swap mode vehicles are not subject to the provisions of 'the price of new energy passenger vehicles must be less than 300,000 yuan before subsidies'". At the same time, car companies are also encouraged to explore the "separation of vehicle and electricity" mode to accelerate the interconnection of charging and swapping facilities.
CR: Red Star News).
On the other hand, the "national player" Huawei has just announced that by the end of next year, it will deploy more than 100,000 fully liquid-cooled ultra-fast charging.
On the one hand, it is to promote battery swapping, and on the other hand, it is crazy to lay out ultra-fast charging, and the two technical routes of tram energy replenishment are showing a trend of double force.
If NIO can solve the most difficult link - the industry battery swap standard, other car companies that will arrive later will have to build cars according to this standard, and everyone will share the battery swap station, and the cost will be reduced.
So is there really a conflict between the ultra-fast charging that many people support and battery swapping?Why do adults have to choose?Of course, why not think about a new car with both 800V and battery swapping, whether it is more attractive to you?
Cialis and Chery are on the list of Huawei, and they are all the way on the new energy track, so can NIO take off if they change their batteries on the Rui Blue list?