According to a new report released by the Global Future Council, a British think tank, China is expected to surpass the United States as the world's largest economy by 2037. The report pointed out that China has made remarkable achievements in responding to the pandemic, promoting scientific and technological innovation, and deepening reform and opening up, demonstrating strong economic resilience and potential. At the same time, the report analyzes the major changes that will take place in the global economic landscape in the coming decades, and how countries should respond to the challenges and seize the opportunities.
According to the report, China's economic development has the following advantages:
Market size and demographic dividend. China has a population of more than 1.4 billion, of which about 900 million are in the labor force.2200 million total human resources, 64The urbanization rate of the permanent population is 7%. All these provide China's economy with huge market capacity, human capital and investment space.
Scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading. China has made remarkable achievements in artificial intelligence, 5G, new energy vehicles, aerospace and other fields, and has become the "engine" of global innovation and prosperity. The growth rate of added value of China's high-tech manufacturing industry is higher than that of the national above-scale industry, new technologies, new products and new business formats continue to grow, and the profit growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry has accelerated, demonstrating the driving force of industrial upgrading.
Reform and opening up and international cooperation. China adheres to the basic national policy of opening up to the outside world, actively participates in global governance and regional cooperation, and promotes the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. China successfully held the 5th China International Import Expo, with an intended turnover of 735 in one yearThe US$200 million has demonstrated to the world China's sincerity in taking the initiative to expand opening-up and share development opportunities with other countries. China has also actively promoted the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, injecting new and strong impetus into the Asia-Pacific region and the global economic recovery.
According to the report, China's economy will maintain a medium-high growth rate, and by 2037, China's GDP will reach 463 trillion dollars, more than 451 trillion dollars, becoming the first in the world. By 2050, China's GDP will further expand to 826 trillion US dollars, accounting for 22 percent of the global economy4%, much higher than 155%。
The report points out that in the coming decades, the global economic landscape will undergo major changes, mainly in the following aspects:
The rise of emerging market and developing economies. In addition to China, countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia will also achieve rapid growth, and by 2050, the combined GDP of these countries will surpass that of advanced economies combined, becoming major contributors to global economic growth. The rise of emerging market and developing economies will promote the multipolarization and diversification of the global economy, and will also bring more opportunities for cooperation and development.
* and restructuring and diversification of investments. With the adjustment and optimization of the global chain, the pattern of investment will change, and regional integration and free agreements will play a greater role. At the same time, the content and form of investment will also be more diversified, digital, service, green, etc. will become new growth points, and cross-border e-commerce, investment facilitation, and intellectual property protection will become new trends.
Transition and innovation in the environment and energy. Addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development is a common challenge facing the world and a common responsibility of all countries. In the future, countries will strengthen cooperation in the field of environment and energy, promote a green and low-carbon development model, accelerate the adjustment of the energy structure, promote the development of clean energy and renewable energy, improve energy efficiency and security, and create more green jobs and growth opportunities.
According to the report, the changes and challenges in the global economy require all countries to strengthen dialogue and coordination, adhere to multilateralism and openness and inclusiveness, jointly safeguard and improve the rules-based international economic order, and promote more balanced, inclusive and sustainable development of the global economy.