"White oil" lithium carbonate has finally started a counterattack.
On December 13, the main lithium carbonate ** contract lithium carbonate 2407 rose rapidly at the end of the market, turning from falling to rising, and the increase reached 998% to 103.55 million tons. A number of lithium carbonate ** contracts have a daily limit, such as lithium carbonate 2404, which has risen by 1299%。
On the same day, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange once again adjusted the price limit of lithium carbonate. According to the announcement, from the settlement on December 13, 2023, the price limit of the lithium carbonate ** contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 14%.Among them, the trading margin standard of lithium carbonate 2401 and lithium carbonate 2402 contracts is adjusted to 15%.
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has repeatedly taken action to stabilize the market
On December 13, the lithium carbonate contract took the "roller coaster", taking lithium carbonate 2401 as an example, it first exceeded 8% at one time, and then rose rapidly at the end of the session, closing up 1094%。
Lithium carbonate has experienced significant fluctuations since its listing, and on July 21, the benchmark price of each lithium carbonate contract was 2460,000 tons, as of December 12**, lithium carbonate 2401** fell to 970,000 tons, down more than 60% since listing. However, on December 13, lithium carbonate ** sounded the horn of "**", and a number of lithium carbonate ** contracts set off a tide of price limits.
In order to stabilize market risks and strengthen market supervision, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has recently adjusted the trading margin related to lithium carbonate ** many times. On November 30, Guangfu announced that it would adjust the intraday closing transaction fee standard of lithium carbonate 2401 contract to 0.8/10,000 of the transaction amount from December 4, 2023.
On December 4, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued another announcement stating that from the trading time on December 6, 2023, the transaction fee standard for lithium carbonate 2401 contracts will be adjusted to 3.2/10,000 of the transaction amount, and the transaction fee standard for intraday closing positions will be adjusted to 3.2/10,000 of the transaction amount. At the same time, non-** corporate members or customers shall not open more than 2,000 positions in a single day on the lithium carbonate 2401 contract.
On December 5, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange said that the margin standard for speculative transactions of lithium carbonate 2401 contracts was adjusted to 12%, and the margin standard for hedging transactions remained unchanged at 9%.
On December 7, Guangfu announced that from the settlement on December 8, 2023, the price limit of lithium carbonate ** contracts will be adjusted to 10%, the margin standard for speculative transactions will be adjusted to 12%, and the margin standard for hedging transactions will be adjusted to 11%.Among them, the margin standard for speculative transactions of lithium carbonate 2401 contracts and 2402 contracts is adjusted to 15%, and the margin standard for hedging transactions is adjusted to 11%. In addition, the Futures Exchange has further limited the number of positions opened in a single day by non-** corporate members or clients in some contracts.
On December 13, the price limit of lithium carbonate ** contract was adjusted to 13%, and the trading margin standard was adjusted to 14%. It can be seen that the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continues to broaden the price limit of lithium carbonate ** contracts and increase the margin standards for various transactions.
Some industry experts said: "Since November, the relevant domestic financial regulatory measures have been continuously improved and strengthened, among which the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has not only strengthened the limit on the amount of intraday positions, but also restricted the excessive speculation of some ** contracts by increasing the intraday handling fee and other ways, and strengthened the regulatory intervention of excessive speculation in some ** contracts in the unilateral market." ”
Can the inflection point of lithium carbonate ** come?
Why did lithium carbonate continue to decline before?Zeng Duohong, chief analyst of the new electric industry in Soochow, said in an interview with reporters that lithium carbonate is mainly affected by supply and demand, and since the second half of 2023, new supply of lepidolite, overseas salt lakes, and African lithium mines have landed, and the supply of lithium carbonate will increase significantly in 2024, while the growth rate of industry demand has slowed down, bringing about an increase in oversupply, so it has led to the increase in lithium carbonate.
On December 13, lithium carbonate 2401 reported 108.55 million tons, lithium carbonate 2407 reported 103.55 million tons. Wind data shows that on December 13, the spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 1090,000 tons, **and spot** is very close.
The Pacific ** research report said that the recent lithium carbonate spot ** fell to about 100,000 tons, and the lithium carbonate** rose sharply (affected by this, the short-term spot sellers have stopped**) The future short-term ** volatility is still the core of the market's attention.
So, is the inflection point of lithium carbonate expected to accelerate?Mo Ke, chief analyst of real lithium research, told reporters that the first lithium carbonate generally reflects the production of new energy vehicles in the future.
Overall (** up or down, depending on the future demand, almost the current lithium carbonate ** corresponds to the production of new energy vehicles after 3 months. January and February of each year are the Spring Festival schedules, and the output of new energy vehicles will not be very good, and the output will often recover from March, corresponding to the spot sales of lithium carbonate in December. Moko said.
Some leading companies have also begun to deploy lithium carbonate in the "trough period". On December 6, Tianci Materials announced that its subsidiary Jiujiang Tianci Resource Recycling Technology will use self-raised funds to invest in the construction of "lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 30,000 tons", with a construction period of 14 months and a total investment of no more than RMB 10700 million yuan.
According to the Pacific ** research report, Tianci Materials chose to increase the layout of lithium carbonate at the current point in time to prepare for the production of electrolyte in 2025 and 2026, indicating that the company believes that lithium mines will reach a reasonable position in 2024, realize profits in 2025, and guide investment opportunities in 2024.
The open source research report believes that the current lithium carbonate inventory has declined, approaching the cost line, and the future production capacity growth rate will slow down, and the bottom of the lithium carbonate market may have appeared. In the short term, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of November 10, 2023, the inventory of lithium carbonate factories in China is 2890,000 tons, 550,000 tons, down 474%, the inventory digestion is obvious, and the current lithium carbonate is approaching the cost line, and the future space is small.