Because we're really at the crossroads of inflation and austerity.
If our country is lucky, we will become a great power in the East that can compete with or even surpass the United States.
If the country's fortune is not good, maybe Japan's today will be our tomorrow.
Before the epidemic, the economy was already in a downturn, and after the blow of the epidemic, it continued to decline, and the unemployment rate increased, which affected people's economic expectations for the future, so now many people are saving money and not spending it.
This is also stated in official statistics. For example, in the first half of 2023, the country's residents' deposits increased significantly, accounting for 77% of last year's total, which is a staggering growth rate.
If this continues for a long time, we will fall into a terrible vicious circle of deflation.
Just like Japan, after the bubble burst in the 90s, social credit was sluggish, no matter how much water was released in macro policies, it could not stimulate consumer demand, everyone did not make money and did not spend money, and the whole people entered a low-desire society, and the twilight was gloomy.
In the face of this phenomenon, do you think the country is not panicking?Standing at this crossroads, if you don't choose the right road, just. Both the country and the people are heading for a worse path. If you choose and take the helm, it will lead us on an upward path.
Personally, I'm optimistic.
I believe that there will be an economic recovery by 2026 at the latest, and I believe that the National Games will go in a good direction.
The reasons are as follows:
First, China's reform to the present, the real "80% marketization" route of less than 50 years, we have only gone through several rounds of economic cycles, most people have not experienced strong winds and waves at all, the sensitivity is too high.
As soon as the economy is hot, it is easy to generate a wave of speculation, resulting in overgrowthAs soon as the economy is cold, many people are prone to panic and cannot stabilize, resulting in an overfall. And the economy, in a way, is a game of confidence and expectations.
I think the current trough is both objective (60% of the total) and "emotional" (40% of the total). Since it is emotional, this mood is easier to adjust, and once you give some sweetness, the economy will soon pick up.
Clause. Second, after decades of rapid development and the relay struggle of several generations of the people of the whole country, China's blood trough in the economy has become relatively thick (there are losses, but the chassis is heavy), and it is not so easy to be beaten down.
China is still a developing republic in the prime of life, and our people do not have a good life too much, and there is still plenty of motivation to strive to protect the dividends and achievements of reform.
Clause. 3. Maintaining moderate inflation is the pursuit of stable social growth and economic protection, and China is already doing so.
How to pursue inflation?On the one hand, it is demand-pulled, which was the same (demand side) until about 2010On the other hand, it is cost-push (supply side), which releases water at every turn, which is like this.
The latter strategy is already being done by the state, such as issuing additional treasury bonds (to resolve local debts), cutting interest rates, lowering the reserve requirement ratio and even tax refunds.
I think the former strategy is suspected to have not produced much obvious effect for the time being, I think it is because China has relied too much on real estate policy in the past two or three decades, and now the new economic growth pole has not been cultivated for the time being, and it has fallen into a short period of confusion and difficulty, but can this period of difficulty last for ten or eight years?No way.
I am a little wary of those who talk about the decline of China's economy. Some people may have ulterior motives, while others are acute, always looking forward to the above strong medicine, and the economic level will be eliminated immediately.
But if you pay more attention to economic and financial current affairs, you will not panic blindly.