Zhang Deyong is a researcher at the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Recently, Moody's, an international rating agency, issued a report saying that it would maintain China's sovereign credit rating unchanged, but adjust the rating outlook from "stable" to "negative". This is a statement of the family, and it also reflects that the agency does not really understand China's economy and does not recognize the general trend of China's economic development.
Looking at China's economy, we must adhere to a holistic view and avoid the partial view of "seeing only the trees and not the forest". Since the beginning of this year, in the face of a complex and severe international environment and arduous and arduous tasks of reform and development, China's economy has withstood downward pressure, continued to recover steadily, and rebounded on the whole. In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 5 percent year-on-year2%, the growth rate remains leading among the world's major economies. Especially since the third quarter, the positive factors in economic operation have accumulated and increased, and the endogenous driving force has been continuously strengthened. It is expected that China's economy will continue to maintain a positive upward trend in the fourth quarter, and its contribution to global economic growth will reach one-third this year, and it will remain the largest engine of global economic growth. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Organization, Goldman Sachs and other international institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year to 5% to 5%.5%.
After experiencing the unprecedented impact of the epidemic, China's economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and zigzag progress. The economy will inevitably face some difficulties and challenges in the process of operation, but with the implementation of more targeted and systematic macroeconomic regulation and control policies, these difficulties and challenges will not stop the overall upward trend of China's economy.
Looking at China's economy, we must also grasp its internal logic from the trajectory of China's economic development. Over the past 45 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable achievements. In 1978, China's economy ranked 11th in the worldIn 2000, it rose to sixth place in the world;In 2007, it rose to third place in the world;In 2010, it became the second largest economy in the world. During this period, China's economy effectively coped with the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis. Especially after the international financial crisis in 2008, China played an engine role to pull the world economy into a trough and become one of the most important stabilizing forces in the world economy. Practice shows that China's economy has its own unique development logic and strong self-repair ability, and although there are periodic fluctuations, they all belong to the fluctuations in China's economic development, scale expansion, and quality and efficiency improvement. Facts have proved that this has not in any way hindered the pace of China's economic development and has not affected China's tremendous achievements in economic development.
When looking at China's economy, it is even more important to see that China's economy has tremendous resilience and potential for development. China has a significant super-large-scale market advantage, with a population of more than 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of more than 400 million, which nurtures huge demand potential and consumption tension. China has an independent and complete industrial system, with a relatively complete industrial category and a relatively complete industrial chain, and is a major manufacturing country in the world. China's strong production capacity is incomparable to other countries. The combination of the world market and China's manufacturing has become the foundation of China's economy, which can effectively resist various risks and challenges. Since the beginning of this year, the export value of electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and other "new three" products has continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, and its share in the international market has continued to grow, which is a true portrayal of China's high-quality economic development and a vivid footnote to the continuous improvement of China's economic innovation and competitiveness. In particular, accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, focusing on promoting high-quality development, transforming the mode of economic development, promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and promoting the continuous transformation of new and old kinetic energy have provided a strong boost for China's economic development to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed.
The road ahead is high and long, and the development is real. Significant institutional advantages, the scale advantage of a large economy, the driving force advantage of continuous deepening reform and opening up, rich experience in macroeconomic regulation and control, large regulatory policy space, and strong human capital advantages mean that China's economy will continue to overcome all kinds of difficulties and obstacles, achieve sustained and stable development, have bright development prospects, and continue to bring new impetus and new opportunities to the world with China's new development.
Editor: Gao Peining, Tang Hua, Zhang Yanling.