Affected by factors such as serious overcapacity in the new energy industry, especially in the lithium battery industry, intensified market competition, and declining market share and overall valuation of the industry. In less than two years, the market value of CATL has dropped by about 1 trillion yuan.
In December 2021, CATL's share price was 38268 yuan shares, on December 18, 2023, CATL's share price fell to a minimum of 146$27 shares. In just two years, CATL's share price has a maximum drawdown rate of 62%, and the total market value loss is as high as 1,039.9 billion yuan. Among them, the evaporation of 400 billion yuan in market value has occurred in the last four months.
The main reason for the sharp share price of CATL is the disorderly overinvestment in the industry, which has led to serious overcapacity in the lithium battery industry, unprecedented intensification of market competition, and a large increase in product quality.
Since 2020, capital from all walks of life has flocked in, and the production capacity of China's lithium battery industry has grown explosively. According to the statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery, from 2020 to the first half of 2023, there will be more than 300 lithium battery expansion projects in China, with a total investment amount of up to 2More than 1 trillion yuan.
In the first half of 2023, the expansion of lithium battery (power + energy storage battery) is still hot. According to the statistics of the consulting company Gaogong Lithium Battery, in the first half of the year, 50 power and energy storage batteries (including lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries) were started and signed, with a total investment of more than 303.6 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of more than 900GWh.
Due to the rapid growth of production capacity, the lithium battery industry has quickly changed from the original shortage of supply to serious oversupply, and it is expected that by 2025, China needs a power battery production capacity of about 1000-1200GWh, and the current industry capacity planning has reached 4800GWh.
With the intensification of lithium battery overcapacity and the advent of the buyer-led era, lithium batteries have begun to dive. According to the statistics compiled by the 24 tide team and Xinchun Lithium Battery, in the first 11 months of 2023, the core industrial chain of power and energy storage batteries will be the whole line, of which power batteries will fall by more than 44%, and prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate) will fall by more than 51%.
In the next few years, with the release of a large number of lithium battery production capacity under construction, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in China will slow down. The overcapacity of China's lithium battery industry will intensify, and the capacity utilization rate will further decline. At the same time, the United States and other countries have also begun to introduce first-class protection measures for the lithium battery industry, and the carbon neutrality goals and plans of some European and American countries have also begun to reverse, which has also brought a certain degree of negative impact on the export of the lithium battery industry.
The intensification of market competition has led to a decline in the market share of CATL, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in power batteries has continued to rise. At the same time, some new energy vehicle companies are actively supporting.
In the first 10 months of 2023, the Chinese market share of power batteries in the CATL market fell from more than 50% two years ago to 428%。
Against the backdrop of a severe industry environment, driven by factors such as sales growth and strong cost control capabilities, CATL's operating performance has maintained rapid growth since 2023, and CATL achieved operating income of 973 in the third quarter6.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23247%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 942.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18842%。
CATL achieved operating income of 2103 in the first three quarters of 2023400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18672%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 175900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12695%。
In the context of global carbon neutrality, in the long run, the long-term prospects of the overall new energy industry, including lithium batteries, are undoubtedly still very bright, and the lithium battery industry will also develop into a trillion-level industry in the future.
However, the industry reshuffle faced by lithium batteries in the short term will also be extremely severe, for many second- and third-tier lithium battery companies, the industry reshuffle will be very cruel, trillions of capital investment and serious overcapacity will make the industry reshuffle cycle greatly extended. The lithium battery industry will appear in the future of the strong Hengqiang situation, after the tragic industry reshuffle and industry clearing, CATL and other enterprises with real core competitiveness will still stand out and shine.