Project Sword
The risk of Palestinian-Israeli conflict is spilling over, and the Middle East region is facing the risk of major war. Now, the Indian army has begun to meddle in the Red Sea, and the United States has pointed the spearhead at the "two Iraqs."
Recently, the Houthi interception of "Israeli-linked vessels" has severely affected commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The United States is already organizing escort formations, but it does not work out well.
Theoretically, only the United States can personally intervene in the battlefield and strike at the source against the Houthis and even the Iranian army to re-guarantee the so-called "security" of the Red Sea shipping lanes in the West.
However, the United States is very hesitant about this, because it may expand the scale of the war and completely turn the Palestinian-Israeli conflict into a "sixth Middle East war". The political and economic consequences it will have for the United States will be difficult to predict.
Interestingly, the United States has repeatedly and publicly stated that it does not want Israel to expand the war, but Israel always wants to drag the United States in. Israel and Iran seem to agree on the issue of Latin America's launch.
The Houthis are still in control of the Gaza region as the main battlefield of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Israel seems to have learned some lessons recently, heeded some suggestions from the United States, reduced the intensity of the war, and achieved several ceasefires.
But the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is increasingly affecting the United States. With many of the Democrats' supporters opposing support for Israel, Biden's approval rating has plummeted. 2024 is the first year for the United States, and this variable is quite unfavorable for the Democratic Party.
Moreover, Biden does not dare to stop supporting Israel, not to mention that there are many Jews in his team, and the Democratic Party is mainly supported by Jewish plutocracy. Voters and chaebols, with meat on the backs of their palms and hands, really make Biden a little dilemma.
In addition, in fact, the US military in the Middle East is now in a very dangerous situation. On the one hand, US military bases stationed in Iraq and Syria have been attacked by drones, and people have already been seriously injured as a result;On the other hand, the escort behavior of the US military ** is very likely to be attacked by Houthi drones, and ** is under passive defense, which is very dangerous. Coupled with the fact that anti-aircraft missiles hit cheap drones, this deal is really not cost-effective.
And once the U.S. military is killed, or the equipment is more seriously damaged, it will be another big blow to Biden's election.
The fierce fighting of the Israeli army in Gaza is worth noting that at a time when the Middle East is facing a "big war atmosphere", the Indian Navy has the meaning of "showing its presence".
Previously, a merchant ship linked to Israel was attacked by suspected drones off the west coast of India, and the merchant ship was escorted by the Indian Coast Guard to the port of Mumbai, and no group or individual has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. India's defense minister said the Indian Navy will further increase its monitoring of relevant waters.
With this opportunity, the Indian Navy may be able to strengthen its regular presence in the surrounding area in the future, but this is not under the leadership of the United States. India may want to take advantage of its Indian Ocean strategy to expand its advantage. And this also means that the actions of the Indian Navy may affect US interests in the Indian Ocean.
However, judging from the Indian Navy at present, the United States has not had time to take care of India's affairs, and the top priority at the moment is still to contain the spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The United States has made limited sorties in an attempt to deter anti-American forces in the Middle East.
Recently, the U.S. military airstriked the Hashd al-Asabi Resistance camp in the city of Sheila in Babylon Province in central Iraq. It was a retaliatory attack, not very strong, but the signal was very tough. You know, the resistance group is a pro-Iranian armed group, and the spearhead of the United States is directly aimed at Iran and Iraq.
U.S. statistics show that U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked at least 103 times since October 17, most of them by anti-U.S. resistance groups in Iraq and Syria, indicating the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
If this trend is not stopped, the situation of the United States and Israel will be very passive. But the United States does not have much to do now, first, it is impossible to stop Israel, and second, expanding the war will drag the United States into a quagmire.
The limited attack seems to send a strong signal, but I am afraid that even the United States itself has no bottom on the actual deterrent effect.