How to use commodity forward curves to assist in trade analysis
The commodity forward curve is an important tool in the analysis, which is a curve formed by connecting the different delivery months of a certain variety according to the order of the contract expiration time.
This curve can reflect the current situation and expectations of supply and demand, market trends, storage costs, seasonal characteristics of varieties, contract ** and other important transaction information.
Analyze the shape of the forward curve and determine the strength of the fundamentals of the variety: for example, the near-month ** is lower than the far month** (forward premium) generally means that the variety is oversupplied and demanded, and the product is at the bottom of the marketIf it is predicted that the oversupply and demand of varieties will change, it is suitable to look for medium and long-term long opportunities. On the contrary, the near month ** is higher than the far month ** (forward discount), it means that the variety spot is strong, supply and demand are tight, if it is further determined that the supply and demand tension of the variety will continue, you can choose the opportunity to go long;If it is predicted that the tight supply and demand of varieties will be significantly alleviated, it is suitable to test short positions lightly.
Seasonal analysis: The ** of many commodities will be affected by seasonality or warehouse receipt factors, such as agricultural products, chemical varieties, etc. By looking at how the forward curve changes over time, these seasonal factors can be captured, allowing for more accurate trading decisions.
It can be viewed through the "**Data Analyst" platform, and the real-time commodity forward curve. It can be used on mobile phones and computers.
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Black variety:
Including: hot coil, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, silicon-manganese, stainless steel, etc.
Chemical varieties:
Including: PTA, ethylene glycol, staple fiber, PX, plastic, PVC, PP, methanol, urea, etc.
Energy products
Including: Fuel oil, LPG, etc.
Oils and oils
Contains: soybean meal, palm oil, etc.
Agricultural and sideline products
Contains: sugar, etc.
Non-ferrous metals
Stock indices
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Important: This report strives to be objective and unbiased in its contents, citations and data. As far as possible to ensure reliable, accurate and complete, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information described in the report, the information provided in this report is for reference only, not as the basis for investment decisions, customers should make their own trading decisions, independently bear the consequences of trading. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.