Recently, Mongolia's imported coking coal has been running weakly, and various coal types have risen and fallen. Among them, the quality of imported coal from Mongolia 5 raw coal has declined since mid-November, and the rate of raw coal has decreased by 5-10 percentage points compared with the previous period. The price difference between different qualities of raw coal is gradually emerging, and the price is based on quality when downstream procurement. The transaction price of high-quality coal remained at a high level of 1,780-1,800 yuan, the transaction price of ordinary quality coal fell to 1,700-1,720 yuan, and even some low-quality Mongolian coal was traded at 1,630 yuan, a difference of 170 yuan from the market.
In addition to the objective factors of declining quality, the weakening of Mongolian coal is also due to the escalation of the safety situation in the main producing areas of Shanxi in the early stage, and the news of production reduction and shutdown is boiling, which drives market sentiment, increases speculative demand, and drives the rapid rise of coal prices at the port. This week, the main coal mines in the main producing areas began to enter the resumption cycle, and the Emergency Management Bureau organized the resumption of production acceptance team to accept the suspension and rectification of the coal mines involved, and the gap was narrower than expected. The contraction of investment demand has led to a decrease in the acceptance of port resources by downstream and coal washing enterprises, and some ** enterprises have taken the opportunity to ship and reduce inventories to reduce risks. According to mysteel statistics, the inventory in the Ganqimaodu port supervision area is 190700,000 tons, an increase of 737%, a year-on-year decrease of 1689%。
Meng5 The decline in raw coal transactions has also led to the peak of short-term freight at Ganqimaodu port, and the cost side has continued to encroach on the spot profits of enterprises, and the transaction atmosphere in the port market is cold, and downstream procurement is mainly wait-and-see, and the cost pressure is difficult to continue to pass on to coal price sales. Today's port ** enterprise mainstream short-disk freight ** maintained 570-580 yuan ton, the most ** compared with yesterday's small ** 20 yuan ton. According to mysteel research data, on November 6, Mongolia's coal short-term freight ** index was reported at 580 yuan ton, which was the same as the previous customs clearance day, and the average price in December was 5440 yuan ton.
On the whole, the recent port ** is still at a high level, the daily import volume is higher than expected, the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate, and the shipping pressure of some small and medium-sized enterprises is gradually emerging. Downstream coke has risen in three rounds, but it is difficult for mainstream steel mills to respond, and there is a high probability that it will operate steadily. Coal prices have encroached on the profit margins of coking and steel enterprises, but have not yet had a significant impact on cash flow, and there is a high probability that there will be no significant reduction in production of molten iron in the future. Moreover, near the end of the year, the winter storage replenishment is still expected, and the strong demand support ** will not be easily weakened. However, it should be noted that the coal mine with the accident in the production area has been arranged for rectification and acceptance, and the overall coking coal is expected to be gradually relaxed in December, and the high-level support of Mongolian coal at the port is still there, but the upward momentum continues to be insufficient.