In fact, it can be said that it is common sense that it is the bottom now, as long as you exclude fear and pessimism, as long as you are not misled by wrong views on the Internet, it is not difficult to judge that it appears at the very low level of 2900 points.
* The water is very deep, and there are always many people and institutions with ulterior motives shouting a big bull market at the top and creating pessimism at the bottom. Therefore, if shareholders want to survive in the market, they must have their own judgment and not be swayed by the mainstream of the market. The peculiarity is that only a very small number of people here are right.
At present, the index is bottoming, and the last two days of the year are mainly stable and rising. As for the ** in January, it can be clearly said that there is no big risk, last week's low near 2882 points can already be sure of the bottom area, even if there are fluctuations in January, it will not deviate far from this position, and 2800 points is the lifeline of ** will not fall below.
The reason why the index has not risen for such a long time is that in addition to the fact that risk sectors such as new energy liquor have not been fully adjusted before, the more important reason is that the main force of the market will only build positions at the bottom. This is the main reason why the Shanghai Composite Index has not risen since the end of April 2022.
I don't judge the market as good or bad, it's just that the time has not yet come. Once A-shares rise, they are extremely strong. It's a gambling market, and if you understand that, you won't be fussed about looking sluggish for the time being.
Now you just need a little patience, and you can see the expected good ** after a few more days.
I'm optimistic about 2024, and the first half of next year is the beginning of a bull market.
The technical form of the two major indexes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the Science and Technology Innovation 100 and the Science and Technology Innovation 50, is obviously that the long-term bottom has been basically completed, and it is at the critical point of a large-scale turning point.
The bull-bear dividing line of the Shanghai Composite Index is currently around 3,300 points, and breaking through and standing above this point means entering a bull market. The breakthrough is expected to occur in the first half of next year.
The STAR Market Index has been bottoming out since the end of April 2022, and from a historical point of view, the trend of the STAR Market indicates that it will become the leading board. A bull market on the STAR Market can be expected. Now is the starting point of the tech bull market.
Judging by the trend of the CSI 300 and SSE 50, it will take quite a long time for them to break above the February 2021 highs. The ChiNext index is similar. In the first half of next year, all three major indices are highly likely to fall back again, and only then can they rise even higher in the future.
Here's a ** on the possible trends for the whole of 2024.
The first thing to be clear is that January 2024 will start a bull market that will last about two to two and a half years.
The first half of 2024 is the beginning of the bull market, which is the first phase. The index will not continue to rise smoothly in the first half of the year. In terms of wave theory, it is in the stage of small 1 wave and small 2 waves.
This first phase** will last for about three months, and will enter the adjustment period around mid-April 2024. High: Yesterday's article said that there are two possibilities, and at the moment it is more inclined to the first one, which is to rise to 3300 to 3400 points.
This stage is characterized by a small increase, and major indices such as the Shanghai Composite will fall again when they rise to near the bull and bear dividing line, but the low point will be higher than the low point at the end of this year or early next year, and it will basically complete the adjustment around 3,000 points, and then ** to the middle of next year.
The STAR 100 index is expected to rise to 1,300 points at this stage.
The second quarter of next year will be a period of adjustment.
Entering the third quarter, that is, after July, it is possible to launch the second wave in 2024, which will be stronger than the first quarter, and it will go more smoothly.
It is expected that in the second half of next year, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach above 3700 points, the CSI 300 Index is 4350 points, the Shanghai 50 Index is about 2950 points, and the ChiNext Index is 2600 points, and the target for the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index with the largest increase in the second half of next year is 1500 points to 1700 points.
The points of the above major indices are only conservative**, and if the bull market really comes, it will only be higher than this**.
The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated between 2,860 and 3,430 points for two consecutive years, and it will definitely break through this volatility range in 2024, of course, to break through the upper limit.
Again, the pattern of the Shanghai Composite Index in the past five years from the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2023 is a very classic and perfect large-scale bottom pattern, and once this pattern is completed, it will enter a relatively sharp bull market rally that has not been seen for a long time**.
* stocks have bottomed out, but it still needs a momentum accumulation process from launching the main rising wave, and the first quarter or third quarter of next year is the time period when ** stocks may launch the main rise. If there is no stimulus such as major restructuring events, the third quarter is more likely, and vice versa, if the positive is introduced, the first quarter may be launched.
My most optimistic sector has been technology stocks this year, and this has been said a lot, so I won't repeat it today. However, it is still necessary to emphasize that we can only focus on the bottom technology stocks, and the smaller the gains, the better. In fact, many technology stocks are still in the bottom area, but shareholders often only pay attention to the stars who have been speculated, and they still have to spend some effort to study them, and look for better varieties in all aspects from the bottom, which is both safe and profitable.
I don't particularly have a soft spot for a certain sector, but I will pay attention to what sector of the market has the potential to be bullish. From 2019 to 2021, I also invested in white horse stocks and new energy**, and now I focus mainly on technology stocks.
Judging the opportunities of the sector should be objective, and conclusions should not be drawn based on personal preferences. For example, there are actually opportunities in all major sectors now, including the white horse stocks, new energy and liquor stocks that I have been saying I have been avoiding in the past three years, and now it is time to end the three-year adjustment and turn to ** one to two years. That is to say, if you participate in these sectors now, you can also make a certain profit, about 50% to double, but it is far worse than technology stocks.
Hong Kong stocks have stabilized and risen strongly as expected, and the Hang Seng Index is nearing completion of its bottoming since the middle of this month, and will enter the early stage of a bull market with A-shares in January. It is now the bottom of Hong Kong stocks and the starting point of a two-year bull market. Among them, Hong Kong stocks such as Internet and artificial intelligence have the greatest opportunities.