Text |Rui Changan is a senior financial commentator.
From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting clarified the nine key points of economic work in 2024, requiring "seize all favorable opportunities, take advantage of all favorable conditions, and do more if you can", and respond to social expectations with a clear attitude, which will effectively resolve anxiety, enhance the initiative of all parties, and inject strong impetus into the good development of the economy.
Through the nine key work arrangements, we can have a deeper understanding of the policy connotation of "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking", that is, to stabilize expectations, stabilize growth, and stabilize employment, and strive to achieve better results;We will increase progress in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving the quality and increasing the efficiency, and strive to achieve phased resultsEfforts should be made to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, form the best "policy + market" synergy, shape more positive social expectations, and accelerate the process of expanding domestic demand and deepening reform.
The first of the nine key tasks is to "lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation", and the second is to "focus on expanding domestic demand". These two tasks are placed in the forefront, which reflects the strategic intention of developing momentum for scientific and technological innovation and actively expanding the domestic market, embodies the systematic thinking of coordinating demand expansion and supply growth, and also embodies the thinking of unifying "breaking" and "standing".
The implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, that is, expanding consumer demand and investment demand, must rely on the support of fiscal, taxation and financial policies, and at the same time rely on supply-side structural reforms, and promote high-quality growth and virtuous circles at both ends of supply and demand through reforms. In the long run, the driving force for sustainable economic development comes from scientific and technological innovation. To this end, it is necessary to further improve the system and mechanism, promote scientific and technological innovation, industrial innovation, model innovation, and business innovation, and actively develop new quality productive forces. We must not only strive for the upstream in strategic emerging industries and open up new industrial tracks, but also accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Once a new industry and new model are formed, backward industries, production capacity and process models can be replacedExpanding domestic demand is also "established" and "broken"; expanding the new-type consumer market is "standing," and replacing products and services that do not adapt to new consumption Xi is "broken."
Clause. The third and fourth key tasks, "deepening the reform of key areas" and "expanding high-level opening up", are all aimed at stimulating and releasing the endogenous power and innovation vitality of business entities, creating a more friendly business environment, promoting the optimal allocation of internal and external resources, and improving the production efficiency of all factors of society. From the perspective of "deepening the reform in key areas", it is necessary to solve the problems faced by state-owned enterprises in the process of enhancing their competitiveness and further developing and expanding private enterprises, and accelerate the construction of a unified national market. From the perspective of "expanding high-level opening up", it is necessary to solve the problem of foreign capital being willing to come, retain, and develop well, as well as the problem of Chinese enterprises expanding their markets and expanding their business scale abroad. It is necessary to further coordinate the internal and external resources and two markets, strengthen international cooperation, stabilize and improve the level of the industrial chain and the first chain, and maintain the security of economic development. It can be said that reform and opening up is the key to resolving the contradiction between "breaking" and "establishing," and is also an important method for achieving "establishing first and then breaking" and achieving a new balance.
The fifth task is to "continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas", focusing on risks such as real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. The relationship between "stability" and "progress" in these areas is more prominent, and the risks in each aspect must first find out the bottom number, do a good job in mitigating and clearing the work, inject liquidity in a timely and reasonable manner, adjust the adjustment mechanism, and build a new undertaking platform. It is impossible to operate the economy without risks, but it is necessary to establish a regular monitoring and mitigation mechanism to prevent individual risks and local risks from spreading into associated risks and systemic risks. In this way, only what should be established can stand and stand firmly, and what should be broken can also be properly disposed of and transitioned, so as to minimize the negative impact.
The sixth item "unremittingly grasp the work of 'three rural'", the seventh item "promoting urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development", and the eighth item "in-depth promotion of ecological civilization construction and green and low-carbon development" all belong to the combination of "long-term" and "first-class work". "Three rural" is of great significance for maintaining the safe and stable operation of the economy;Urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development are the guarantees for the development of the domestic market, maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and the first chain, and ensuring that residents enjoy a better lifeEcological civilization and green and low-carbon development are related to long-term economic security, and also create a broad space for new technologies, new materials and new products. In the process of economic recovery, items 6 and 7 may pay more attention to "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "promoting stability through progress", and item 8 will pay more attention to "establishing first and then breaking down". China is a large coal storage country, and it is necessary not only to actively develop new energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear, but also to pay full attention to the clean and efficient use of coal resources. It is necessary to establish a pattern of rational development and utilization of a variety of energy sources, do a good job in energy strategic reserves, and prevent "breaking for the sake of breaking".
The ninth item of "effectively protecting and improving people's livelihood" is actually the foothold of all work, and the meeting specifically put it forward, indicating that in the current economic environment, there may still be some shortcomings and weaknesses in employment, residents' income, social security, etc., and more efforts need to be made to solve them. Strengthening the above-mentioned work and maintaining stable economic growth is to consolidate and improve people's livelihood and well-being.
China's economy is a huge ship, huge domestic demand potential, a strong manufacturing system, and a long-term accumulated development foundation are the confidence for us to cope with temporary difficultiesAt the same time, we must actively solve the difficulties of insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, and blockages in the domestic circulation, actively respond to the uncertainty of the external environment, handle the relationship between "stability" and "progress", "establishment" and "breaking", and constantly consolidate the positive trend of the economy.