There are only a few trading days left until the end of 2023. On December 20, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the ChiNext Board hit new lows for the year, and the market sentiment was sluggish, and the net value of many private equity products also retreated sharplyOn the 21st, the three major indexes were strong**.
As the saying goes, if you don't break or stand, you will have a bad 2023, and many investors are looking forward to A-shares in 2024. According to the latest survey of the private placement network, 7857% of private equity firms believe that A-shares are expected to rise in 2024, and they are most optimistic about the three major sectors of technology, cyclical and large consumption. In addition, in the past month, **private placement** has been at a low level in the year as a whole, but it has recently begun to increase its position.
CSI 300 has been in a row for the first time, with sluggish performance.
As the domestic economic recovery was less than expected at the beginning of the year, coupled with the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes, A-shares rose and fell at the end of the first quarter, and major sectors continued to adjust.
On December 20, the Shanghai Composite Index, the CSI 300 Index, the ChiNext and other major indices hit a new low this year, and the trading volume of the two cities continued to shrink, and the turnover of the two cities was less than 650 billion yuan the previous dayOn December 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 2,900-point mark in early trading, hitting a new low of 2,882 points in early trading, a new low for the year, and then went strong**.
As of December 21**, the CSI 300 Index was down 1397%, with only a few trading days left before the end of 2023, or a high probability of setting an embarrassing record for three consecutive years**, which is the first time that the index has appeared since its release in 2005. The CSI 300 Index is the performance reference benchmark for many public and private products, and many of the **allocations** are constituent stocks of the CSI 300. The continued decline in the index also reflects the fact that most of the ** performance has been tested.
According to the Chinese reporter of the brokerage, many tens of billions of private placements are operating at a high level this year, so the continuous adjustment of the market has caused a large drawdown in the net value of some private equity productsIn the active equity category of public offerings, nearly ninety percent of them are losing money.
It is worth noting that under the market adjustment, the scale of many head private equity managers has shrunk this year, due to the difficulty of channel issuance, almost no new products have been issued by subjective long private placements this year, and many new public offerings can only raise millions of funds, and the issuance has entered the freezing point.
Nearly eighty percent of private equity is bullish on A-shares next year, and is optimistic about technology, big consumption and other sectors.
Although the market sentiment is sluggish, as the saying goes, many investors are full of expectations for A-shares in 2024. According to the latest survey of the private placement network, 7857% of private equity believe that A-shares are expected to rise in 2024, because the valuation of A-shares is at a low level, the economy is improving, and the Federal Reserve has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, which is more friendly.
However, there are also 1429% of the private equity believes that based on the medium-term structural problems of the economy, there is not much room for A-shares, and it will be repeated during the periodAnother 714% of private placements believe that A-shares will continue to find the bottom lower.
In terms of market style, the survey shows that 4545% of private equity believe that the style of the A** market will tend to be balanced in 2024;27.27% of private equity believe that the market will not have a clear style next year;18.18% of private equity believe that with the stabilization and rebound of the economy, the first-class stock style will prevail next year;Another 909% of private equity is still bullish on the small-cap style.
Recently, many tens of billions of private placements have successively released their 2024 annual strategies, unanimously bullish on A-shares.
Wan Kaihang, chief investment officer of Starstone Investment, said that for the capital market, mean reversion will be the key driver of A-shares in 2024. On the one hand, the start of profit recovery will support the real value of enterprises. In the third quarter of 2023, the year-on-year profit growth rate of listed companies has turned from negative to positive, and with the counter-cyclical policy and the strengthening of demand-side improvement, the performance of enterprises with stock advantages is expected to improve quarter by quarter. On the other hand, the current valuation risk of A-shares has been fully released, and as the overseas dollar siphon effect is coming to an end, the convergence of interest rate differentials between China and the United States will promote the reversion of asset pricing to the mean, and domestic advantageous assets already have good allocation value.
Xuanyuan Investment said that the current macro liquidity is improving, which will drive the value and growth style to usher in a turnaround in 2024, but the upward opportunity still needs to improve the profitability of the molecular end. The data shows that from 2010 to the present, regardless of the bull and bear market, macro environment, and liquidity environment, the rise and fall of A-shares is highly positively correlated with the growth rate of earnings.
Looking ahead to 2024, there are 5294% of private equity companies are optimistic about the technology growth sector, believing that technology is an important engine for future economic growth23.53% of private equity firms are bullish on cyclical sectors, believing that the economic recovery will drive demand for commodities17.65% of private equity is optimistic about the large consumption sector, believing that consumption is the main direction of policy stimulus;5.88% of private equity is optimistic about big finance.
The two major suppressive factors are improving, and private equity is starting to increase its position.
It is worth noting that in the past month, **private placement** as a whole has been at a low level in the year, but many private placements have recently begun to increase their positions. According to the data of the private placement network portfolio master, as of December 8, the **private placement** index was 7873%, an increase of 018%。
Among them, 5 billion private placements have increased their positions significantly. According to the data of the private placement network, as of December 8, there were differences in the private placement of different scales, of which the scale of 5 billion and the scale of 2 billion private placements increased to 76 respectively29% and 7571%, of which 5 billion scale ** private placement is very strong. Tens of billions of private placements** fell slightly from the previous week, but they were still at a high level of nearly a month.
Chen Jiande, general manager of Tianlang Assets, said that due to the continued weakening of the market, we are still low, and in the short term, we will focus on defense and risk control. "We will look for some good industries, companies with performance support, and wait for the trend to start rising, and add **. ”
Looking ahead to next year, Chen Jiande believes that the market as a whole will be better than this year. The two core factors affecting the market this year are the strength and pace of the domestic economic recovery and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. For now, both factors will improve next year.
In terms of the intensity and progress of domestic economic recovery, the high-level meeting set the direction of overall economic development next year, and the policy has placed more emphasis on economic development than before in order to promote stabilityIn terms of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the Fed is likely to have ended this round of interest rate hikes, and the market expects multiple rounds of interest rate cuts next year, and the rate cut may be around 100bp. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will operate between 2900-3600 points, and the market will be dominated by structural **.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Lulu.
Proofreading: Zhu Tianting.