In the analysis and discussion of the U.S. strategic consulting community, for:China and the United StatesThe following four possibilities are widely discussed:
1. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) lightning conquered Taiwan, but the US military could not react in time, so it could only admit it
2. The United States led its allies to prevent the PLA from crossing the sea to attack the fortified positions, and China's military reunification failed
3. The conflict continues to escalate, eventually leading to a nuclear war between China and the United States and the destruction of the world;
4.Take the Taiwan Strait as the fuseChina and the United StatesA long routine erupted in betweenWaruntil one party can't bear the attrition and gives up.
However, the author argues that historically, nuclear powers have tended to have self-control and do not escalate the situation to nuclearWardegree. Therefore, the third possibility is more remote. As for the first and second possibilities, the author puts forward his opinion, arguing that it will not be easy for the mainland to defeat Taiwan with lightning speed, and the United States will not be able to do soWarThe PLA can be easily defeated at the initial stage.
In addition, the author points out that the United States does not have a common defense mechanism in Asia, as NATO, and that American allies in Asia lack a commitment to common defense. Therefore, to:The Taiwan questionAs a trigger, it will be difficult for the United States to organize its Asian allies to take joint action against China.
The author describes three common forms of U.S. tactics against the enemy: annihilation, attrition, and manpowerWar。Among them, the Annihilation strategy is to quickly defeat the enemy through fast and powerful attacks, such as:World War IIInitial German actions against France and the United States against Iraq. The strategy of attrition is through the long termWarto exhaust the opponent's manpower, material and financial resources, and gradually achieve victory. PeopleWarIt is to let other countries do it instead of themselvesWar, indirectly depleting the opponent's strength and putting the opponent in a difficult situation.
However, the authors mention that none of these three strategies against China are applicable. Either way, it's likely to escalate to nuclearWar。Therefore, the author believes that it passesMilitaryThe contest of fields to consume the opponent's strength is the most feasible way. As long as the United States can tolerate the long termWarwill be able to prevent China's reunification by force.
However, I personally think that this analysis of the author is idealistic and ignores realityWarcomplexity. InWarIn the event of a situation, neither side will be rightWarThere is a choice in the way and the scope of the battlefield. WarIt is a dynamic process that is difficult to predict and control. China forThe Taiwan questionis an important part of the road to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and the price borne by China is far greater than the Americans imagined. Therefore, even the outbreak of a long oneWarChina's ability to withstand it also far exceeds that of the United States. History of North KoreaWar, VietnamWarwithWar in AfghanistanThis is also evidenced by experience. In the long termWarChina has a large population, a stable political regime, and the people have the characteristics of bearing hardships and standing hard work, and they are relatively more capable of persevering.
The author mentions four possibilities that the author considers and describes three common forms of U.S. tactics against the enemy. However, I personally believe that the feasibility of these strategies in practice needs further consideration.
In response to the first possibility, that is, the PLA lightning attack on Taiwan. The author believes that it will not be easy for the mainland to want a lightning victory, whileU.S. militaryMay not be able to respond in a timely manner. However, this is just a guess, actualWarThe results in can be completely different. The Taiwan questionIt involves politics, economics and economics at home and abroadMilitaryand other fields, the PLA has strong strength and resource support, andU.S. militaryThere are also a series in the Asia-Pacific regionMilitaryDeploy. Therefore,WarThe uncertainty of the outcome is high.
In response to the second possibility, that is, the United States leads its allies to prevent the PLA from crossing the sea to attack the fortified position, and China's military reunification fails. While the United States has a range of Asian allies, it lacks a common defense mechanism similar to NATO. In addition, countries such as Russia, North Korea and Pakistan also have some support for China. Therefore, it is difficult for the United States to be inThe Taiwan questionto organize Asian allies to act together.
Against the third possibility, which is the escalation of the conflict, which eventually leads toChina and the United StatesA nuclear war, the destruction of the world. The dangers and consequences of this possibility are immeasurable, and therefore an outcome that neither side wants to see. Nuclear**is extremely powerful, and no party will easily choose such extreme means. But in modern timesWar, the development of technology and the race in armaments ledWarThe uncertainty increases, so for avoiding nuclearWarThe international community should strengthen its research and efforts on strategic stability.
For the fourth possibility, ieChina and the United StatesWith the Taiwan Strait as the fuse, a long routine broke outWar。As long as the United States can tolerate the long term, the author arguesWarcan prevent China's reunification by force. However, this analysis ignoresWarcomplexity and inadmissibility. OnceWareruption, which neither side can fully controlWardevelopment, the situation can quickly get out of control. In the long termWarBoth sides will face enormous sacrifices and challenges, both economically, resourcefully and humanly. Therefore, only rely onMilitaryConfrontation to deplete the opponent's power is not a viable strategy.
In summary, although several possibilities and strategies are mentioned in the article, these are based on assumptions and speculations. WarIt is an extremely complex and dynamically changing phenomenon that is difficult to accurately and control. So, forChina and the United Statesbetween the long-termWarWe must not be overly optimistic or pessimistic, but should seek peaceful solutions to disputes through diplomacy and dialogue.