On December 8, a high-level Politburo meeting was held to analyze and study the economic work in 2024.
The meeting discussed economic work in preparation for the 2024 Economic Work Conference. In recent years, after the December Politburo meeting, an economic work conference will be held in 2-10 days. 
(1) This year's achievementsThe first paragraph of the communiqué of this meeting summarizes this year's achievements, mentioning the economic situation, high-quality development, the construction of a modern industrial system, scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up, safe development, people's livelihood protection, etc., without analyzing the current problems.
(2) General requirements
The second paragraph deals with the overall requirements for next year's economic work. Compared with the requirements of the Politburo meeting held on December 6 last year and July 24 this year, the main changes are as follows:
1) At this meeting, the expression "solidly promote Chinese-style modernization" was changed to "comprehensively promote the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization". The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China explained the modernization of Chinese modernization, summarizing that it is the modernization of a huge population, the modernization of common prosperity for all people, the modernization of the coordination of material civilization and spiritual civilization, the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, and the modernization of taking the path of peaceful development.
2) Continue to emphasize the general tone of adhering to the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implementing the new development concept, and comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, but after comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, this meeting added the requirement of "promoting high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance", which reflects the current emphasis on scientific and technological development, especially "self-reliance and self-improvement" indicates strong support for domestic substitution.
3) In line with the July meeting, this meeting continues to call for "intensifying macroeconomic regulation and control", since the second half of this year, macro policies have made significant efforts to stabilize the economy, and it is expected that next year's policy efforts will still be not small. The reason why it is necessary to continue to intensify macroeconomic regulation and control is that the top level believes that "China's economic recovery is still at a critical stage." * This judgment was mentioned at a forum of non-party personalities.
4) This meeting newly proposed "three co-ordination": "coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform, coordinate the new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, and coordinate high-quality development and high-level security". On February 28, the communiqué of the Second Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was released, which put forward the thesis of "three better coordination", that is, better coordination of the two overall domestic and international situations, better coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and better coordination of development and security. The comparison between the two shows the change in the focus of development. The first overall plan has shifted from the original emphasis on domestic and international to domestic, and solved the problem from both ends of its own supply and demand, but this is not a new formulation, and last year's proposal was to "organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms." The second overall planning is completely new due to the complete subsidence of the impact of the epidemic, aiming at the dual structure of urban and rural areas in society. The third overall plan is development and security, but the expressions of "high quality" and "high level" have been added.
5) The meeting added the requirement of "effectively enhancing economic vitality, preventing and resolving risks, and improving social expectations". These three sentences are the "finishing touch" of this meeting. These three requirements will continue through next year. Separately, economic vitality is reflected in many aspects, but the most important is the private economy. Only when the private economy develops well, can the industry, kinetic energy, the main body and other aspects be improved. Recently, "Economy**" published an article entitled "Enhancing Economic Vitality in the Implementation of the 'Two Unwavering'", mentioning that "on the new journey of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, it is necessary to further study and implement the important exposition on Xi 'two unwavering', strengthen theoretical research, correct misunderstandings, solidly promote the high-quality development of the private economy, further enhance the vitality of economic development, and provide a more solid material foundation for Chinese-style modernization." As for preventing risks and stabilizing expectations, we have been grasping them this year, but the results are average, and in fact, the instability of expectations is also related to the increase in risks. Next year, it is necessary to continue to guard against and defuse risks, including risks in financial institutions, real estate, and local government bonds.
6) The second paragraph concludes with a reference to "consolidating and strengthening the positive momentum of the economic rebound, continuing to promote the effective qualitative and quantitative growth of the economy, improving people's livelihood and well-being, and maintaining social stability". Among them, regarding "reasonable volume growth", we expect that next year's GDP growth target will still be "around 5%". In addition, "improving people's livelihood and well-being and maintaining social stability" is new, corresponding to the requirements of common prosperity and social stability.
(3) Eight aspects of workThe third paragraph of the communiqué of the meeting talks about specific work, including eight aspects, namely, macroeconomic policy, industrial policy, expansion of domestic demand, reform and opening up, risk prevention and resolution, urban and rural and regional economy, ecological and green development, and people's livelihood.
On the macro side, the meeting proposed that "next year, we must insist on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down." Among them, "first establish and then break" is the new requirement. Previously, the requirement of "establishing first and then breaking" was put forward in the "dual carbon" work. Now, extension has become the general principle of economic work, which means that before the new things develop into scale, we cannot blindly abandon traditional industries and old kinetic energy, including the real estate industry.
The meeting called for "strengthening the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies". We believe that the main task of counter-cyclical adjustment is to promote further economic repair, and the task of cross-cyclical adjustment is to start a new round of growth cycle. Policies will pay more attention to both the long and the short, and strive for economic stability.
The requirement of fiscal policy is to "moderately strengthen and improve quality and efficiency". In contrast, the wording of "moderate afterburner" indicates that the afterburner of fiscal policy will be relatively prudent next year. At last December's meeting, the phrase was "to work hard to improve efficiency", and the deficit ratio was set at 3% at the beginning of this year, and it was added to 3 in October8%, including 04 percentage points. We expect the deficit rate to be around 3% next year, and at the same time, in order to control debt risks, we expect the scale of special bond issuance to be relatively stable, continue to promote the work of debt reduction, and strive to revitalize existing assets.
Monetary policy requires "flexibility, moderation, precision and effectiveness". The phrase at last year's meeting was "precise and powerful". Judging from the first financial work conference, next year, we should focus on revitalizing the stock of loans and improving the efficiency of loan use, which will affect the intensity of total relaxation. In addition, the Financial Work Conference highlighted structural requirements, and it is expected that the structure will continue to play a major role.
In the macro policy part, the meeting called for "enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthening economic propaganda and guidance." The former deals with the issue of policy fights.
Regarding the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy, the central bank's third quarter "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" column 3 was discussed, specifically mentioning the impact of scalding daily fiscal revenue and expenditure on bank liquidity, supporting the centralized issuance of ** bonds, and synergistically promoting the adjustment and optimization of economic structure. The fiscal policy pays attention to the redistribution function and the leveraged role of "four or two thousand pounds", strengthens the guarantee of public services, and reflects strong support for key areas. In the key areas and weak links where financial resources at all levels are not fully taken into account, the willingness of social funds to enter is insufficient, and it is urgent to strengthen financial support, monetary policy takes the initiative to fill the position, and by playing an incentive and guiding role, it can encourage more financial resources to provide financing support, and the bank credit structure is further optimized, reflecting the corresponding structural adjustment effect.
The latter may be in response to a new phenomenon in recent years, that is, some policies have shown the characteristics of "forced and passive response" to a certain extent. Next year, it is necessary to fully and effectively communicate with the market in advance, and respond to the concerns in a timely, forceful and effective manner. Avoid making the market wait for the policy, but let the policy stay ahead of market expectations. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen first-class management, guide all kinds of negative information in a timely manner, and further strengthen positive publicity.
In terms of industry, the emphasis is on scientific and technological innovation and chain security.
The expansion of domestic demand emphasizes a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment. Since consumer demand is the final demand, from the current point of view, the problem of the virtuous cycle of investment and consumption mainly lies in the sluggish consumer demand.
In terms of reform, the meeting called for deepening reforms in key areas. Judging from the situation of reform work discussed in important documents in the past, the reform of state-owned enterprises generally ranks first.
In terms of opening up, the emphasis is on stabilizing the basic market of foreign investment and foreign trade, which is also the work that has been done in recent years. In terms of risk prevention, next year, we will continue to prevent and resolve risks in the real estate industry, continue to promote the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and continue to promote the resolution of local first-class debts.
In terms of agriculture, agriculture and agriculture, this time it is mentioned to promote urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development. This year, after the unveiling of the leading group for regional coordinated development, the work related to regional coordinated development has been launched, and the intensity is expected to increase next year. In terms of urban and rural areas, the relatively new requirement is to encourage the two-way flow of production factors between urban and rural areas.
The work of green and low-carbon, ecological and environmental protection, recently issued a document to continue to promote the improvement of air quality, and the next step is to grasp the implementation, and next year, the work related to double carbon will be maintained.
In terms of people's livelihood, the meeting mentioned "insisting on doing our best and doing what we can", and it seems that the work intensity will be reasonable and moderate. In recent years, the fiscal balance has been tight, and it is necessary to make careful calculations to ensure people's livelihood.
The communiqué of this meeting does not directly mention the real estate sector. The communiqué of the Politburo meeting in December last year also did not mention real estate.
There was also no mention of "two unwavering" at this meeting. The communiqué of the Politburo meeting in December last year mentioned that "it is necessary to earnestly implement the 'two unwavering'".
On the whole, the tone of the meeting was relatively positive, with clear demands: "intensify macroeconomic regulation and control," "earnestly enhance economic vitality," "establish first and then break down," "strengthen macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment," and "moderately strengthen fiscal policy." We expect that macroeconomic policies will remain strong next year and strive for steady economic growth. The policy ideas in various key areas remain basically stable, and relevant work will continue to be promoted. In terms of "establishment," the intensity will be increased.