Recently, there was a fan Q&A event on Toutiao, and two questions caught my attention, and maybe you have the same doubts. One question is, "I feel that this year's consumer spending is in the first place, but the income has not risen", what is wrong with the economy?Another question is, why is it that some people have recently said that "deflationary expectations" are serious?
These two issues are not only closely related to the lives and feelings of each of us, but also have a certain connection from a macroeconomic point of view. Let's take a look at what the economic situation is behind and how it affects us.
Is it true that consumer spending has risen but income has not risen?
This problem, if you only look at it from the micro level of the individual, may have a certain universality, but if you look at it from the macro level, it is not necessarily the case. I'll give the conclusion first, in fact, there are some deviations between facts and feelings, and the real problem is not that the consumption has risen, but that the money is more difficult to make than before.
Why?Let's first look at the difference between facts and feelings.
Many people feel that this year's consumer spending is in the first place, but we look at the macro data, it doesn't seem to be the case. At least judging from the CPI data for the first four months of this year, the basic ** range is very small, less than 1%. Of course, this data may not be very relevant to us ordinary people, unless there are great changes in life, we will not notice it very much.
However, we can look at it on the whole, that is, in terms of consumer goods, especially agricultural and sideline products, they are basically stable or slightly rising. And industrial products, that is, the goods we buy every day, except for food, are all very related to industrial products. The upstream of industrial products, that is, the first of industrial raw materials, we call the PPI index, is in the first place.
What does this mean?That is, the consumption demand for some commodities is not strong, resulting in the decline of raw materials at the production end, but the sales side has not yet declined, so our daily consumption has not risen much, but it has not fallen. That is, consumer spending has not fallen.
But at the same time, we must also see that the decline in demand for industrial products is only a link in production and consumption, in fact, the overall consumption recovery has not reached the expected level, and many people think that it will improve if it is liberalized, but it is not so simple.
The most fundamental reason is that the economic and financial cycles are in a stage of downward and contraction, and this is the decisive factor. This will make people have a deeper feeling that money is not going to be profitable. So it's hard to make money, is it true?Is there any data to back it up?Of course.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March 2023, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 15,167400 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214% (on a comparable basis). The total profit of state-controlled enterprises was 5892400 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 169%；The total profit of joint-stock enterprises is 11290300 million yuan, down 206%；The total profit of foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises invested in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was 3318100 million yuan, down 249%；The total profit of private enterprises was 3894100 million yuan, down 230%。
If you look at different industries and see that profits have fallen more sharply, you can compare whether this is the case in your own industry.
From January to March, among the 41 major industrial industries, the total profits of 10 industries increased year-on-year, 1 industry was flat, 1 industry reduced losses, 28 industries declined, and 1 industry turned from profit to loss. The profits of the main industries are as follows: the total profits of electricity, heat production and ** industry increased by 47% year-on-year9%, and the manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment increased by 271%, and the general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 74%, and the oil and gas extraction sector fell 48%, and the coal mining and washing industry fell by 49%, and the special equipment manufacturing industry fell by 101%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry fell by 184%, and the automobile manufacturing industry fell by 242%, and the non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 306%, and the textile industry fell by 340%, the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products fell by 549%, and the manufacturing of computers, communications and other electronic equipment fell by 575%, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell 575%, and the oil, coal and other fuel processing industry fell by 971%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from profit to loss.
Many of these industries are typically cyclical, and their profits are directly related to the economic cycle. Therefore, the superposition of the downward economic cycle and the tightening of the financial cycle has caused the most intuitive result, which is that the money is not easy to make.
And the money is not easy to make, and this is the core of all feelings.
When people feel that money is not making money, first of all, their income is not growing, or it is difficult to grow, at this time, you will feel that consumer spending seems to be increasing. In fact, this is because of the change in the income side, which affects people's subjective feelings, if the money is easy to make, people may not care too much, on the contrary, if you are very sensitive to **, it may be because of income.
In fact, the fact is that this year's consumption has not risen much, at most, after liberalization, people's consumption choices are more. But there is no doubt that this feeling that it is more difficult to make money makes us more careful and distressed than before when we consume.
If the money is not easy to earn, it will undoubtedly increase economic growth.